2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

[flyers19rw]

Just noticed that the Phillies are 26th in attendance in MLB. It figures with the play that has gone on this season. The tv and radio side is probably getting clobbered with lack of tune ins as well. Sad state of affairs.

[allentown]

Which is why they have to add a major talent this off-season.

[zambonir]

Well, you tell me. The beat writer doesn't even think they're going to start handing out multi-year deals next year. He's neither fully informed nor clairvoyant, but that also doesn't suggest they are sitting around looking to make Yu Darvish their Jon Lester.

Not my opinion about what they should do, just what I think they will do. Which is, a three-year mid-level FA and/or a trade acquisition.

[mdougherty12]

It doesn't seem to make sense for the Tigers to trade Verlander away in a straight salary dump. They need young talent, and they should be willing to kick in money to get it.

It doesn't make sense for Verlander to want to come to Philly either; one would think he would be chasing a ring at this point in his career.

[EDmuch]

Just my opinion, but most of the UFA pitchers who would sign only a one year deal are garbage, ie, such as Buchholtz, who was a pain to watch even during hit short run in pre-season ball. Adding more garbage is not going to make for a more watchable product. The 8 man starting lineup is shaping up well. It is sad to not try to put some legit pitchers are the mound while younger guys perfect their secondary pitches at AAA.

[Austinfan]

If you look at past FA groups, the 1-2 year contracts were just as good in the first year as most of the 5 year contracts, that is, it's a crapshoot. The 1-2 year guys tend to be coming off injury or are older veterans. There's no veteran in this group I'd consider a sure thing for 2018, much less 2020. At least you can walk away from bad short-term contracts.

Phillies can add a number of crapshots, but unless the FA market comes to its senses, will avoid the 5 year deals, as they should. If these players would settle for 3 year deals, I think Klentak would jump on them, but he doesn't want $40-50M in long-term commitments to players who will be liabilities by 2020. He can spend $50M on shorter commitments, and turn around in a year or two when the right FA is available and the team is ready to make a move.

Remember, "it's just money," so if you bring in a few veteran pichers and a couple flop, so what?
And if they pitch well, you can flip them in July for more prospects, try flipping a 5 year deal.

[andyb]

If you look at past FA groups, the 1-2 year contracts were just as good in the first year as most of the 5 year contracts, that is, it's a crapshoot.

I find it extremely unlikely this is even remotely true. Yes there are always some short term inexpensive contracts that work out. But most don't. There are not a whole lot of 3-4+ WAR seasons from the scrap heap, and the percentage success of those contracts is really low.

[Austinfan]

There are not a whole lot of 3-4+ WAR seasons from the 5 year contracts either, even the $30M guys don't give you more than a couple.
FA is just not a good way to build a pitching staff, Scherzer is the best FA pitcher in 5? 10? years.
Grienke is more the norm, and Zimmerman, Cueto, etc show the futility of overpaying second tier talents.

If you want good pitchers, draft and develop them, or trade for them.
Hamels, Gio Gonzalez, Carrasco, Happ, Floyd would have been a pretty decent rotation.

[andyb]

There are not a whole lot of 3-4+ WAR seasons from the 5 year contracts either, even the $30M guys don't give you more than a couple

Percentage-wise there are.

[EDmuch]

If it's "just money" now. It will also be "just money" in 2022. We are so far under the cap that even in 2022, we could afford the bad last year of a five year contract.That is something, AF, you never address. We can afford a bad fifth year in 2022 for someone who give us 3 good years thru 2020. Nothing is accomplished by sending young, inexperienced pitchers out there to be slaughtered like happened yesterday.

[zambonir]

I agree it is not exciting to ponder another Hellickson, Morton or Buchholtz (though none of those guys were free agents, or on actual one-year deals). They'll get at least one pitcher who is either an upgrade or at least more durable. Three-year deal, 4th-year option, easy to eat in third year. Just don't see them playing at the top of a seller's market where they outbid a contender for Darvish or sign a QO guy.

Hellickson, Nola, Eickhoff, Velasquez and Buchholtz with Eflin and Thompson in the wings looked pretty good at the beginning of the year. It wasn't gonna win 81 games (though lots of people thought that too) but it was promising. Some even thought Buchholtz was overkill, though Eflin and Thompson's spring training health quickly disabused us of that.

They look gutted, and all but Nola and Eickhoff look like they could use another half-year in AAA. Thompson is probably done, and if they do make a trade you probably include someone else (of Pivetta, Lively, Eflin).

As ineffective as Hellickson mostly was he served his purpose, as this month's parade of AAA guys in over their heads show.

We'll see. If it's true that Middleton is the reason they went after Buchholtz and Saunders and his ego can't stand another sub.500 season (or poor attendance) he could certainly pull out his wallet and tell them to make that Thome/Jon Lester move. But based on where they are in the rebuild under Klentak, and based on the Astros/Cubs history, there is no reason to see them as behind schedule or panicked (and not about attendance either). Not only do they actually have better players now but they have the ability to make trades.

[Lawman]

I think I'd have no problems if the team went out and spent in FA for Darvish and Lynn. A rotation of those two plus Nola/, Eickhoff, and Pivetta/Velazquez would be fine.

[allentown]

, but unless the FA market comes to its senses

Both you and the Phillies need to come to the realization that this is your personal pipe dream and sense of the way things 'should be'. But it's not the way things are and it's never going to be the way things are. Baseball revenues have increased dramatically over the past decade as has revenue to 'small market teams'. More teams can retain their best players. More teams can and do compete in every baseball talent market. The Astros are the perfect example. What we are seeing is not an aberration, it IS the market.

Just as the shock of $25 mill/year for ARod was thought an outlier for the intermediate term, it has turned into the norm for top FA. The salary cap is up and will continue to rise. The major league minimum salary is up. Salaries likely don't rise as fast over the next decade as they did over the last, but they will rise. This is the current market and teams that hide their heads in the sand and wait for normalcy to return are going to be left in the dust by aggressive teams who want to win.

In the past the Phillies were rebels against what they saw as 'too big' bonuses for draftees. Those bonuses are so far below today's 'fixed' slots that the Phillies prior rebellion seems quaint. Their rebellion against runaway Latin American bonuses is beyond comical. Baseball owners/GMs on what side of the table and agents/players/amateurs on the other side have set the market. The owners aren't hurting at all at the current market prices. That goes even for almost all small market owners, and if they are hurting on an annual cashflow basis, they are still making out like bandits on appreciation of the team's value.

[zambonir]

The Astros payroll is only $100 million or so though. They have yet to sign a big-deal long-term free agent. They had better (or more rapidly-developing) talent though. And less money.

But I am not worried about the Phillies standing on ceremony or clinging to the past. They will flirt with the $200 million payroll sooner than later, I just don't think the first $30 million player gets added this year (at least, not via a long free agent deal).

[andyb]

AF's strategy is one to maximize WAR per dollar. It is the strategy of a smaller market team, not one with resources and no payroll.

Each transaction even for a large revenue team should be cognizant of dollars per WAR. One does not want to waste money. The difference is that teams that can afford a $200 million payroll have different rules than teams that can't.

Last offseason was not the time to start bringing in high dollar free agents. Our young core deserved a year to help us see what we might have. In this past year our older offensive prospects have generally done well (Hoskins, Altherr, Williams, Crawford, Kingery. Our older (upper minors + majors) pitchers have done less well outside of Nola. They either need time or we just need to realize that Thompson and Eflin and Lively are just not guys to count on in a rotation and Eshelman's lack of raw stuff puts him in that category too.

The conclusion is that now is the time to build up the top of the rotation. Probably the back of the bullpen too. This does not mean we dismiss our young starters. Let them compete to be our 5th starter. We'll need 7 starters anyway over the course of the year so it is not like we would bury an Eflin in AAA. But a rotation of something like Darvish, Verlander, Nola, Eickhoff, and the winner of our young 5th starter contest might be decent. The seeds of a .500 club that could be better than that if the offensive prospects continue to improve. And that rotation could be achieved with nothing but money and second tier prospects.

[Austinfan]

Top Pitching staffs 2014-16:

2016:
Chicago
Lester (FA 2015) 6yr/$155 - two good years, this year 4.37/3.78
Arrieta (2013 trade)
Hendricks (2012 trade, was 8th rd Texas)
Lackey (FA 2016) 2yr/$32M
Hammel (FA 2015) 2yr$20M

Washington
Scherzer (FA 2015) 6yr/$200?M (lots of deferred money)
Roark (trade 2010, 25th rd pick)
Gonzalez (trade 2011)
Strasburg (1st pick)
Ross (trade 2014)

NY Mets
Colon (FA 2016) 1yr/$7M
Syndergaard (trade 2012)
DeGrom (9th rd)
Matz (2nd rd)
Harvey (7th pick)
Verrett (3rd rd)

2015:
St Louis
Lackey (trade)
Wacha (1st rd)
Martinez (LA)
Lynn (1s)
Garcia (22nd rd)

Pittsburgh
Cole (1st pick)
LIriano (FA 2015) 2yr/$17M
Locke (2009 trade)
Burnett (FA 2015) 1yr/$8.5M
Morton (2009 trade)
Happ (2015 trade)

Chicago
Lester (FA 2015) 6yr/$155
Arrieta (2013 trade)
Hendricks (2012 trade, was 8th rd Texas)
Hammel (FA 2015) 2yr$20M
Haren (2015 trade)

2014:
Washington
Roark (trade 2010, 25th rd pick)
Gonzalez (2011 trade)
Strasburg (1st pick)
Zimmerman (2nd rd)
Fister (2014 trade)

Seattle
Hernandez (LA)
Iwakuma (FA 2012) 4yr/$21M as 31 year old Japanese pitcher
Young (FA 2014) 1yr/$2M
Elias (UDFA)
Ramirez (LA)
Paxton (4th rd)

Oakland
Gray (1st rd)
Kazmir (FA 2014) 1yr/$7M
Chavez (purchased 2012)
Samardzija (2014 trade)
Milone (2014 trade)
Hammel (2014 trade)

San Diego
Kennedy (2013 trade)
Ross (2013 trade)
Stults (2013 waivers)
Cashner (2012 trade)
Despaigne (Cuba)
Hahn (2014 trade)

Only 2 big name FAs.
Lot's of trades for 1 year or for prospects who later blossomed.
Lot's of short-term FA signings, 1-2 year deal patches.

[andyb]

Philly.com article hinting at callups. Crawford seems definite. Tocci mentioned was a bit of a surprise but if they have decided to protect him they might as well. Eshelman is likely to not be called up for 40-man roster issues. I think this may be why they added a guy like Henderson Alvarez to give us a few mediocre September starts if they decide they need to back off on guys like Pivetta who really should not be starting the rest of the season. To me it is time for Pivetta to have a nice, restful September. Maybe spot him from the bullpen a few times but really think of him at an innings limit. There is a decent pitcher in there that does not need to be a sacrificial lamb in September.

[andyb]

Top Pitching staffs 2014-16

And your point is...once again kind of not clear. A cherry-picked list of good pitching staffs is bound to have some low budget teams where things come together (or when the park is pitcher friendly like SD).

What this misses is the big point is that pitchers that make $20 million are generally better than the older pitchers (post free agency) that don't. 27-year-old pitchers that are not free agents don't come for free. And pitchers extended by their own teams (like Strasburg and Gio for the Nats) are in the same category of big dollar free agents even if they technically were just extended by their teams. So your point is really kind of meaningless.

Tell me once again how you are going to use this team's financial resources to improve it. Still waiting on an answer.

[Austinfan]

It wasn't cherry picked, it was the best 3 pitching staffs the last three years, just to give a flavor how top starting groups are actually constructed.
What is clear is that big money free agents aren't a major source of excellence, of those 10 staffs, 3 had one (Chicago twice with Lester, Washington once with Scherzer).
Lester made sense for Chicago, even though he may be falling off the cliff after two years, because they were close and he helped put them on top. Where the Phils may be in 2020.

Strasburg got 7yr/$175M with two opt-outs (I hate opt outs, the team takes all the risk)
Gonzalez got 4yr/$43M, a lot cheaper than buying a 2nd tier FA.

No one builds a solid pitching staff around 31-32 year old FA pitchers.
Heck, even extensions of young pitchers are risky, look at Cain and Lincecum in SF.
But at least they cost less than overpaying in the FA market.

Just load up on 1-2 year deals right now (or a reasonably priced 3 year deal), just say no to 5+ year deals.
Come 2020 or so, if we're a contender and we need that one starter, then you consider overpaying for 2-3 good years and eat the rest of the contract hopefully with a ring attached.

[andyb]

No one builds a solid pitching staff around 31-32 year old FA pitchers.

Nobody is asking the Phillies to do that. Teams add 1 or 2 all the time though. Especially if they want to add a good pitcher without giving up top prospects. I do not want to trade Sixto for a number 2 starter type pitcher when I can sign one for only money.

Yet again you fail to answer the question of how to use the team's financial resources to improve it.