2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

[nycphils]

Absolutely I would give Lynn 5 years at $110,000 million. I would probably offer him more than that.

I might as well, but if so you have to be prepared for him to stink by the end of the contract. He'd be 35 y.o.

[EDmuch]

Congratulations for feeling so proud of your "belief".

So what if Lynn is not as good at the end of the contract. With the way we have been aggressively restocking the farm, we will have replacements for him by then. Right now, we do not.

[allentown]

Would you give Lance Lynn 5yrs/$110m?

Yes, I would. That looks like a bargain. He's pitching very well this year and that is just paying for his 31-35 seasons. We won't be pinched by luxury tax limit at the end of that contract. He's a big guy -- reasonable to hope he wears well. He's had one major injury, but has pitched consistently well and consistently given 175+ IP, often 200+.

[andyb]

So what if Lynn is not as good at the end of the contract. With the way we have been aggressively restocking the farm, we will have replacements for him by then. Right now, we do not.

Which is the crux of it. We have unused money now and young prospects who are not ready or good enough.

In 5 years if the young prospects don't develop we are going to have problems anyway. Plus we really don't hit a cash crunch problem until more than 5 years from now. Other than Nola do we have anyone on the current roster that we think might be worth paying $25 million a year for? Hoskins has 6 years before free agency so even if he is a star his second arbitration year is not likely to be worth $20 million. Maybe Crawford but his situation is on the same timetable as Hoskins. If Atherr or Williams becomes a $20 million plus player that is a nice problem to have. The three best young pitching prospects we have (Sanchez, Kilome, and Medina) will be making close to the minimum in 5 years.

[Austinfan]

Lance Lynn

I would wait to see how Lynn finished out the season coming off TJ surgery, he's lost a little velocity, does he bounce back?
He was very consistent in his peak years, now he's an aging pitcher coming off a severe injury.
He's K/9 has declined, and his ERA is misleading, he's been really lucky with a BABIP of .234, that's not sustainable (carerr average of .297).
He'll be 31 next year, a bit old for a 5 year deal, especially if he's lost something after TJ.
If his arm holds up, he's a good 3 yr contract bet, but five years? Let someone be the greater fool.

Cobb simply isn't durable, 23, 22, 27 starts, then he breaks down for 2 years with TJ,
Doesn't have good velocity, and his split/changeup has gone south, though it's showing signs of returning.
Cobb IS Hellickson, a guy who has to have his change working to have a chance, or Eickhoff, who has to have his curve working, b/c the FB is so-so.
He's a back of the rotation guy you don't overpay on a 1-2 year deal.

Zimmerman may have got that money, but he's a precautionary tale, since signing he's put up, in 43 starts, 1.8 WAR (FG)/-0.2 WAR (BR), and he's now replacement level or worse.

I'd rather see Klentak spend $60M on 1-2 year overpays than give 5 yrs at $22M per year for guys like Zimmerman.

[Austinfan]

The 1976 Phillies didn't seem crippled by losing.
Each season is different, and all you need is a good win streak to erase memories of past seasons.
If you want to help the young pitchers, bring back Ruiz to the organization.

Otherwise, what matters is whether a veteran pitcher can hold up for a year or two and buy time, not whether he gives you 4 WAR in 2018 before collapsing in 2020. Any decent SP will put up 2 WAR just by starting 30 games without stinking out the joint, Eickhoff started 31 games last year with a 4.01 ERA and BR credited him with 3.5 WAR.

There just isn't a pitcher out there you can build a staff around, even as a reliable #2 to Nola's #1. Darvish and Lynn MIGHT give you 1, maybe 2 seasons in the next 3 at that level, but not long-term. Though I think they're both more likely to be Eickhoff circa 2016, which would be nice, but not exactly a game changer.
We're going to have to trade for or develop that guy.
Meanwhile a #4/#5 who adds depth would provide real value, and they can afford to sign 2-3 of these guys and hope one works out, then rinse and repeat next season until some young pitchers get it together.

[nycphils]

Realistically if you want to overpay short term you are looking st someone like Sabathia - I'm sure he'd take 2 years at $35-40m.

Arietta, Darvish will get 5/6 year deals at $130m and up

Cashner, Garcia, Lynn and Cobb are likely to get in that 4-5/$90- $125 area.

After that you are dumpster diving. Lackey? Jason Vargas? Chacin? Cahill?

[andyb]

The only realistic option to overpay for 2 years is to go get Verlander (for presumably minimal prospect cost). Top free agents would be stupid to take $60 million for 2 years when they can get $125 for 5. It just won't happen. And saying it is the only way you would spend money on a pitcher is essentially saying you don't want to spend money.

[nycphils]

I think we are agreeing, except I could see Sabathia on a 2 yr overpay b/c no one will give him a long term deal at 38 with up and down performance the last couple years.

Verlander would be fine for something like Jake Thompson, Drew Anderson and Mitch Walding.

[EDmuch]

Our needs do align with Verlander. Certainly, not my first choice. But I would not be shocked if we work out a trade for him involving fairly minor prospects, assuming we would take his entire salary.

[andyb]

I might be talking myself into getting Verlander!. 2 years/$56 million with zero future risk (and his 3rd year option at $22 million is actually a plus on his contract if he is still good).

The best options out there are really still trade options. I'd trade a whole lot to go get Chris Archer. There is just no reason for the Rays to want to move him yet when they keep sniffing around the wild card most years.

Verlander and Darvish. Might actually make us competitive in 2018. Trade a catcher, maybe Galvis to shore up holes in the bullpen or bench and the team starts to look interesting.

[andyb]

Verlander would be fine for something like Jake Thompson, Drew Anderson and Mitch Walding.

Not sure it would even cost that much. Detroit might have to do a complete rebuild.

[nycphils]

Since bottoming out at 30-60 with a -93 run differential, the team has gone 17-20 with only -12 run differential in the last 37 games. Once Hoskins, Odubel, Altherr, Williams, Cesar and Knapp/Alfaro are all in the lineup, we aren't looking that bad.

The rebuild is going well although not perfectly. Hope we draft a #1 type pitcher
out of college in the draft. Would set the team up really well for the near future.

A 2020 lineup of Kingery, Crawford, Hoskins, Haseley, Altherr, Herrera, Knapp/Alfaro and 3B with Nola, Sixto, Kilome, and two of Seranthony, Elinery, JoJo, Pivetta, Eflin, Suarez, Howard and Seabold would look mighty good. If you add Machado or Harper or Trout, oh my....

[allentown]

No, if either Thompson or Anderson make it in the bigs, then their value exceeds what you save for not going with a higher priced guy like Lynn. Thompson and Anderson may well be a part of a future Phillies contender. Verlander won't be. I'm looking for more than 1-2 year stopgaps. I think the odds of Verlander being worth picking up his 3rd year option are about an inch more than nil.

[schillingfan]

AF, the money sitting unused in the owners' pockets is not generating any WAR either.

WORD!

[mdougherty12]

I might be talking myself into getting Verlander!. 2 years/$56 million with zero future risk (and his 3rd year option at $22 million is actually a plus on his contract if he is still good).

The best options out there are really still trade options. I'd trade a whole lot to go get Chris Archer. There is just no reason for the Rays to want to move him yet when they keep sniffing around the wild card most years.

Verlander and Darvish. Might actually make us competitive in 2018. Trade a catcher, maybe Galvis to shore up holes in the bullpen or bench and the team starts to look interesting.

The Phils would presumably have to guarantee Verlander's option to get him to approve a trade, so it's probably really 3/$78 million they would be taking on.

[allentown]

As long as it's just $.

[bkox]

Matt Gelb (MattGelb)

[zambonir]

The front office is, by all accounts, in agreement. They have added two veteran starters on one-year commitments in each of the last two winters. Expect that plan to continue this winter.

From the Gelb article above. Second time he has suggested that. I don't think he's right, they will sign a mid-range free agent and/or trade for a starter. But one of the five best available FA pitchers? Probably not, unless things break just so.

[allentown]

But one of the five best available FA pitchers? Probably not, unless things break just so.

Why not? They have more $ to spend than any team.