2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

[allentown]

We can add a number one/two starter for $200 million, Mike Trout or Manny Machado or both for $300 million plus, pay all our current players healthy wages and raises, and still be way under the luxury tax threshold which is $206 million in 2019 and will rise a bit each year after that most likely.

That's how I see our finances. And to make things even better, Darvish, or another pitcher, is most interested in how much total money he gets. If he can get the money in 4 years instead of 6, he's happier. We can load all of the money into 4 years and totally eliminate the chance of any, however unlikely, out-year financial problem. We are over-flowing with cap space and money to spend over the next 4 years. It would be a foolishly missed opportunity not to spend those $ to improve the team.

[zambonir]

I usually skip the posts that start with "meh."

Maybe I missed it in the game thread but I guess the Daniel Nava trade watch is back on. He replaced Thompson so I guess that means Pivetta comes back in a few days?

[Austinfan]

Darvish is not a really good pitcher, he's a good pitcher #2/#3, but not as good as Nola, and certainly not a #1.
Darvish turns 32 next August, this is the first full season of pitching for him since 2014, he's got a 3.83 ERA/3.90 FIP.
He's not pitching as well in a full season as he did in 17 starts last year or from 2012-14.
If he was 28 you'd figure he's a good bet to bounce back, but at 31, uh, buyer beware.

I'd project his next 3 seasons as probably 3 WAR, 2.5 WAR, 1.5 WAR then off the cliff in 2021 (when he turns 36).
So a 3yr/$60M contract is a reasonable gamble.
5yr/$100M is a gross overpay, and will turn out like most of the 5yr deals to second tier pitches which I detailed elsewhere.

[tom81]

The team that signs Darvish may have an inside track for signing Otani too. I know he wants to pitch and hit and an AL team might be more attractive to him. I try to convince him to play in Philly. May have him try closing and playing the OF.

[andyb]

Darvish is not a really good pitcher, he's a good pitcher #2/#3, but not as good as Nola, and certainly not a #1.

Nola has been worth 3.4 WAR and Darvish 3.6 WAR this year according to BR. Facts matter. Not saying Nola is not a good pitcher, but you do a disservice when you start your argument with something that just is not true.

Darvis WAR by year: 3.9, 5.8, 3.2 (in 2/3 of a season), 2.5 (in half a season), and 3.6 this year.

So Darvish's worst season pro-rated was 3.9 WAR. Seems like a good pitcher to me.

[Austinfan]

What Darvish did in 2012-2014, when he was 26-28, before he was injured, isn't much of a guide to what he'll do in 2018-2020, after injury and at age 31-34.
Darvish this near is similar to Hellickson last year.
Darvish, 25 starts, 6.2 IPS, ERA 3.83/FIP 3.99, 3.0 WAR
Hellickson, 33 starts, 6.0 IPS, ERA 3.71/FIP 3.98, 2.9 WAR
Both had some nice seasons earlier in their career before injuries hit.
Darvish is a better pitcher than Hellickson, but he'll also be 2 years older next summer than Hellickson was this year.
Point is going forward Darvish projects to a guy who's a threat to fall off at any time, he might give you one good bounceback year, he might be replacement level.
It's extremely doubtful you'll get more than two solid seasons out of him.

[EDmuch]

AF, the money sitting unused in the owners' pockets is not generating any WAR either.

[andyb]

Darvish this near is similar to Hellickson last year.
Darvish, 25 starts, 6.2 IPS, ERA 3.83/FIP 3.99, 3.0 WAR
Hellickson, 33 starts, 6.0 IPS, ERA 3.71/FIP 3.98, 2.9 WAR

Actually no he is not. He is worth more WAR in 8 fewer starts. Pro-rated he is having a 4 WAR season. And we actually all know that Hellickson was generally pitching above his true ability last year.

Offense is up everywhere this season. Texas in particular is a good offensive park. ERA and your beloved FIP are useful tools but they need to be used in the proper context. Which of course you don't do. Darvish has NEVER had a bad season because his stuff is good. Hellickson has mediocre stuff so he needs to be close to perfect to succeed. There is just no comparison between the two. Darvish is a good pitcher with good stuff that is still at least 95% of what it was at it's peak.

It is a better question to say that he would be a bad signing for 6-7 years at $30 million per. I recognize that risk. I'd love to add a 27-year-old but don't know where they exist for no cost of acquisition. What you completely dismiss is that it would not hurt the Phillies if Darvish or another $200 million signing were a complete failure other than of course getting no performance from that player. The Phillies can spend $20 million per WAR and it would not make them lose money. When they have a base payroll of $150 million and need to make choices on the last $50 million it might be another question. But since their base is more like $50 million, they simply don't have many good ways to spend $150 million.

Answer this question - why don't you want to use the team's financial resources to make the team better? Why?

[Austinfan]

We don't need WAR the next two years, we need innings.
That is, we should be looking for veteran SPs the next two years who can buy time for young pitchers, but who can be easily discarded if a couple young pitchers step up.
Eickhoff gave us 3.5 WAR last year, and with his struggles this year, is still a 1.1 WAR pitcher.
We have plenty of back of the rotation candidates like that in Leiter, Lively, Thompson, Eshelman. Just need one or two to emerge.
And we have plenty of "live" arms that could turn it around quickly. Or who can be part of a package for a SP.

Now it won't surprise me if we package Hernandez, Velasquez and Tavares or something like that for a veteran SP in his prime (26-27).
When you have a bunch of guys like Velasquez, Eflin, Pivetta, Kilome, Anderson, do you wait to see who emerges or use a couple as trade bait for an establshed pitcher?
I can see Klentak waiting a year then making a move next winter, because he'll need to make room for the next generation of pitchers who'll be arriving in Reading and Clearwater next summer.

Interesting article on Pitcher WAR
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/measuring-pitching-value-is-complicated/
I think I'm just gonna average FG and BR, since neither is proven superior.

[Austinfan]

Because I don't think Darvish will make the Phillies better in 2020 onward, and I don't care if he makes them better in 2018-2019.

[andyb]

Answer the question - how do you use the Phillies money to make the team better.

You have put up a bunch of posts complaining about everything with zero solutions and a strategy that wastes resources. Darvish is good. He has put up consistent innings other than when he had TJ surgery. Each point you make is just not fact-based. All pitchers are risks. We have only 1 good starter now. How will you make the team better?

[allentown]

Of course we need WAR in 2018 and 2019. This team has stunk since 2012. With each awful season, such as this year and the prior two, the franchise dies a little. Younger sports fans do not naturally gravitate to baseball. The summer offers lots of other pleasant recreational choices. Fans not recruited over an 8-year period when they are susceptible to recruitment are likely lost forever. It's not just that we haven't been good for years; we haven't even been respectable for years. That's also an awful environment in which to bring up young hitters.

Yes, we have 8 young pitchers. We don't know which ones, but half or more won't make it. We can add a top pitcher and still give an opportunity to all of these young pitchers. It takes about 8-10 starters to make it through a season.

I keep asking the same question AndyB has now asked for the second time: how does not spending the money help the team? You talk of future salary budget crunches, but they are still far in the future. You talk as if we have enough talent on the farm now to win and shrug off next year's potential 1.1 as making a contribution far in the future after the Phillies are already on top. But there just isn't enough talent in the system today to go to a WS, considering the reasonably expected attrition rate, especially for young pitchers.

So yeah, FA prices are high. It isn't an efficient way to build a team. We could buy two high-priced FA talents and it still wouldn't be the primary way we are building the team and would still be not even a third of the payroll we can carry. We have a lot (but not enough) young, cheap talent. That allows up to actually a full handful of expensive players. Now some of those expensive guys will be homegrown post-arb guys, presumably starting with Nola, but some will have to be FAs. A FA is only $. He doesn't cost us top minor league talent. Really, anyone you get in trade might be cheap for a year, maybe even two, but then you are renewing at FA price and long years anyway, so the young guy you trade for either doesn't help in 2020 or has larger out-year problems than a FA signing today.

[nycphils]

Would you give Lance Lynn 5yrs/$110m? That's what Jordan Zimmerman got from the Tigers a couple years ago at roughly the same age and experience level.

If not, stop talking about signing non over the hill or non make good pitcher contracts.

[EDmuch]

I guess where we disagree is the team's performance in 2018 and 2019. I do not agree with the idea that W-L record does not matter until 2020. They need to start developing a culture and expectation of winning in 2018, not 2020. IN 2020 they should be competing for a WS birth. That does not happen overnite. You need to create a culture and an expectation of winning starting next year.

[andyb]

This franchise is in a unique position of having no future salary commitments at the same time they get a huge amount of money from their new TV deal. They are not the Yankees and the Dodgers, but they are in a better financial position than anyone else in baseball.

Decisions they make from this position are different than ones they would make at a time of financial scarcity. Any look at the future that does not figure out how to help the team at this unique fiscal time are simply wasting those fiscal resources.

[EDmuch]

Absolutely I would give Lynn 5 years at $110,000 million. I would probably offer him more than that.

[EDmuch]

I think ideally, I would want to pick up Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb. Unfortunately I think it is unlikely that the Cards will not make Lynn a QO. The Rays may let Cobb walk. If they do we should be all over him. But we should still be looking for one additional quality starter, someone better than Cobb.

[nycphils]

I guess where we disagree is the team's performance in 2018 and 2019. I do not agree with the idea that W-L record does not matter until 2020. They need to start developing a culture and expectation of winning in 2018, not 2020. IN 2020 they should be competing for a WS birth. That does not happen overnite. You need to create a culture and an expectation of winning starting next year.

"Culture and an expectation of winning" is just silliness. Did the Astos fall flat because they didn't gradually develop such culture and expectation? They lost over 100 games three years in a row, lost 92 games the next year. Is that a "culture and an expectation of winning"? Apparently, because the year after that they were in the ALDS.

you need good players that can hit and pitch and play defense. The rest is psycho babble that means nothing.

[EDmuch]

Obviously, I don't agree with you.

[nycphils]

Clearly, though my belief is based on historical information while you "really feel it", I guess.