2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

[andyb]

Darvish had TJ surgery but he has been healthy since then and he was very durable before that. In terms of injury risk he looks pretty good (compared to Arrietta for instance).

Lance Lynn will also be attractive though he'll get a QO from the Cardinals most likely. The next best out there might be Alex Cobb and the Rays may not give him a QO. He is more of a 3/4 starter though closer to Hellickson than Darvish. Darvish is the one guy worth dramatically overpaying for, especially if a front loaded offer (even with an opt out say in 3 years) is what it takes.

[David_Criss]

Alex Cobb averages over 200 innings pitched per year. He and, (don't shoot me), Justin Verlander are two pitchers I think the Phillies should look at. Yes Verlander is on the downside of a possible Hall of Fame career, but the man still throws over 200 innings and think of the influence he could have on the youngsters. Verlander is owed $28,000,000 the next two years, but the Tigers would love to shed his salary. Nola, Eickhoff, Lively and Valesquez is a pretty young rotation. With Leiter, Pivetta and Eflin starting at AAA in 18, there is room for an established starter on a short term deal and that is why I think Verlander could be that guy.

Thinking about pitching - what becomes of Thompson and Appel after this year? I had visions of both of them doing pretty well with the Phillies this year all season long only to see them struggle at AAA. These two were top pitching prospects, knocking on the door of Major League success, not that long ago.

[allentown]

There is a going rate for pitching coaches and it's a lot less than $14 mill per year. Seriously, from Burnett onward, we've had a string of quite expensive FA pitchers who did just about squat for us on the mound and didn't seem to be huge positive influences on the young pitchers.I don't mind taking on the salary as a 2-year gamble, but he seems to be seriously fading, adding almost a full ERA point and 1.4 BB/9 this season compared to last. Age 35, 36 not a good bet and he obviously isn't somebody who helps our future. So... I take him only if I get a real prospect along with him and send nothing but crap in return... well, I know I have to do a bit better than crap both as eyewash for Detroit and to keep the commish off our case. So, perhaps guys like Stassi, Joseph, Leibrandt, a guy we're sure to lose in Rule 5 -- you mentioned the name Appel, he would be just the guy..

[EDmuch]

I think this young staff needs a solid veteran anchor. Not a Hellickson kind of journeyman. A recognized pro who could do some mentoring as well as pitch effectively for another 2-3 years and exit gracefully when the young gnus start to arrive from A level ball. Verlander is one of those kind of guys i would like. He does not have to be the Cy Young candidate he was. He just has to be a 200 inning guy with an ERA around 3.8 who can be a role model for the young guys and take a bit of pressure off them. WE should be able to obtain him form the Tigers for very little in the way of prospects. The other guy we should look at is Arrieta. Offer him 3 years at $32 million per year. I am sure he would at least think about it. It is about time the FO used some of that money they have floating around.

And I strongly disagree with the idea that we should already be writing off 2018. Certainly we will probably not be a playoff team. But we should be aiming to be a competitive team, a team where winning matters, next year, To me that includes putting down the money to get a pro like Verlander or Arrieta to serve as an anchor. I do not believe we should be wasting anymore money on journeymen that we can "trade at the deadline". WE should be playing the guys that we hope will help us be contenders in 2019.

Cobb woudldalso be interesting. but to me he would be in addition to Verlander or Arrieta.

[allentown]

I'd sooner use our $ to chase the younger Darvish.

[Squire]

....and RHP Drew Anderson has been promoted to the Phillies, OF Cam Perkins optioned back to Lehigh Valley

[zambonir]

Darvish is on the DL right now! But sure, all pitchers are a risk so it may as well be an elite pitcher. I just have a feeling the front office is going to stick to their preference for shorter deals. Three years + 1 yes, five-six at top dollar, no. Maybe next year. I just don't think the Phillies are ready for their Jon Lester (which is to say, they can't convince one of the top FAs to come yet).

I'd be disappointed if it's more flippable guys, which press coverage has already implied.

[bkox]

Since coming off the DL for TJ surgery, Darvish has been on the DL (albeit short stints) for a shoulder issue and now a back issue.

[phillychuck]

OK, I thought I was going to see him pitch at the Iron Pigs game tonight. Pigs are flat out of starting pitchers--the cupboard is bare. Wonder who it will be tonight?

[bkox]

OK, I thought I was going to see him pitch at the Iron Pigs game tonight. Pigs are flat out of starting pitchers--the cupboard is bare. Wonder who it will be tonight?

Probably J.P. Crawford or Scott Kingery

[phillychuck]

Tommy Berjans, according to the other thread.

[Lawman]

Not a bad idea. If they can pitch and play a few positions, that's one way to increase roster flexibility.

[Austinfan]

Darvish simply isn't worth top dollar.
He's got a 3.83 ERA/4.00 FIP this year two years after TJ surgery. He's add a MPH after surgery, but isn't more effective.
He's a #2 at best, a #3 this season, he turns 32 next summer.
Now if you could sign him to a 3 year deal, an overpay wouldn't hurt, but he's not likely to give you any value after 2020.

[phillychuck]

Agree. No old guys for now.

[andyb]

Agree. No old guys for now.

Explain how we add 27-year-old pitchers then. That is the conundrum. If you have money you can risk some of it on older pitchers if money is the only cost of acquisition. Obviously we should look at the trade market, but any team with a good young pitcher is going to ask for Sixto. Do we really want to do that?

[harrisburghusker]

you probably get the best value through trade. we certainly got Halladay for about 65 cents on the dollar through that trade

[phillychuck]

Andy, I'm OK with guys up to 30 I think. No one older than that. I have never really liked Darvish, and I don't like Verlander now. Honestly, I'd take as much cash as I could and go in on Otani, and then actually use him creatively as both an OF and a pitcher. Would be seriously interesting!

We DO need pitching, and Klentak's challenge is to add 2 or 3 effective starters for next season, guys who would pitch over 170 innings with an ERA around (hopefully under) 4.00. The young pitchers DO need time and space to figure things out, and some of them will end up as relievers (or, unfortunately, AAAA guys). I just really hope Klentak can find pitchers who aren't collecting Social Security yet. Those guys are out there, and some decent pitchers change teams every year. A good GM has to figure out which guys to go in on, and where to pass. I'd start by ruling out guys 31 and older because the chance of them blowing up (via injury or just aging out) is too high.

[EDmuch]

No the "best value" is to use what we have in abundance---MONEY. Find someone who is a UFA that will take 3 years at $30 million plus per year. We need to cover only about 3 years before all the arms in the lower minors start arriving.

[bkox]

you probably get the best value through trade. we certainly got Halladay for about 65 cents on the dollar through that trade

At the time of the trade Drabek was rated #25, Taylor #29 and d' Arnaud by BA.. So that would be roughly the equivalent of giving up Sixto, Haisley and Crawford now

[phillychuck]

I understand what you're saying, but you can't count on the guys in the lower minors "arriving" in three years. Most of them will flame out or get injured. Use your money wisely, don't buy what Verlander was, or buy Darvish's injury potential. Buy guys who are possible long-term answers.