2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

[EDmuch]

PC, in theory I agree with you. But how do you get 2 guys who are under 30 years old and ERA's under 4.00 without trading away KIngery or Crawford ??

[phillychuck]

If I were Klentak, this winter I'd say I have an abundance of talent at SS, 2B, C, and OF (and some young starting pitching) and I'm looking for an established starting pitcher from a rebuilding/retooling team. Teams will be ready to take you up on that offer, just like we were on Hamels. Maybe not just to get value in the trade, but to shed some salary. Be patient and the right deal will be there eventually.

[EDmuch]

I think we have to make due with the best we can get in the 31-32 year old crowd. If, somehow, the Rays let go of Cobb, heck yes, he should be a top priority.

[phillychuck]

I think you have to be wiling to trade one of them, but you have to negotiate like that would be the worst thing since your last serious disease. Make the other team sweat out the trade, and give you 100 cents on the dollar, or maybe 110. Then grudgingly include one of them to get the right deal (if you have to). We have a lot of depth in the system in the middle IF. If we want to get better we have to use it. hopefully the guys that get traded are Galvis and Hernandez, but you can't go into negotiations with ONLY those guys on the table. (I'll bet you could get a pretty decent pitcher for Alfaro right now, too).

[zambonir]

The problem is three years $30 million per isn't really going to get it done, players like Jordan Zimmerman and Hamels already make $24 million. Kershaw and Scherzer are both over $30 million or will be (Scherzer jumps to $35 million in 2019 and he got a $50 million bonus).

So you'd be looking at three years, $40 million AAV to try and compete with a five or six year deal at $35 million AAV, and even then I'm not sure you'd land the player.

[EDmuch]

Well I think we all agree that the top off-season priority is pitching. This will be an interesting test for Klentak

[andyb]

I know it is ideal to only want pitchers under 30, it is just hard to do in reality. Looking at Cobb (who is still under 30) he might be a good fit though he is closer to Hellickson in quality than a number 1 or 2. We can probably get him for something like 4/70. Just not sure he is good enough.

[allentown]

Trade is the best deal solely in terms of $/WAR. It is the overall best deal if the team is budget constrained as the Phillies were when they traded for Halladay. If the team is short on talent and awash in budget cap space, then a trade is not at all the best deal, unless you can pull it off without moving significant minor league talent. If you have to move significant talent, then a trade is the worst approach in the Phillies current situation.

[Austinfan]

You have Nola, you'll probably draft a top pitcher this summer, you have lots of good arms, a few will pan out.
What the Phillies should be looking for is a #3 with #3 stuff, that is, a solid SP who throws 91-92, not a 95 MPH pitcher that you imagine will be better than he has been the last five years.
Inning eaters are undervalued in the FA market, but that's what the Phillies need right now, a Hellickson with better stuff and more durability.
Given how risky ALL FA pitchers are, go short-term and cheap, unless you absolutely know you're buying the next Scherzer.
It's not that the cheap guys are better, but if the odds are one year of #3 and one year of replacement level no matter how much you pay, why pay?

Last year:
Ivan Nova (30) 3yr/$26M - 25s 3.81
Andrew Cashner (30) 1yr/$10M - 20s 3.31
Jason Hammel (34) 2yr/$16M - 25s 4.73
Rich HiIll (37) 3yr/$48M - 18s 3.54
Morton (33) 2yr/$14M - 19s 3.81
Volquez (34) 2yr/$22M - 17s 4.19
Happ (33) (2015) 3yr/$36M - 32s 3.18, 18s 3.90
Estrada (33) (2015) 2yr/$26M - 29s 3.48, 26s 5.07
Lackey (36) (2015) 2yr/$36M - 29s 3.35, 24s 4.90
Hammel (32) (2014) 2yr/$18M - 31s 3.75, 30s 3.83
McCarthy (31) (2014) 4yr/$48M - 4s 5.87, 9s 4.95, 16s 3.84
Peavy (34) (2014) 2yr/$24M - 19s 3.58, 21s 5.54
Santana (31) (2014) 4yr/$55M - 17s 4.00, 30s 3.38, 25s 3.33
Volquez (31) (2014) 2yr/$20M - 33s 3.55, 34s 5.37

Kazmir (32) (2015) 3yr/$48M - 26s 4.56, IR
Kennedy (31) (2015) 5yr/$70M - 33s 3.68, 23s 5.06
Leake (28) (2015) 5y/$89M - 30s 4.69, 25s 4.16
Chen (31) (2015) 5yr/$80M - 22s 4.96, 5s 4.33
Samardzija (31) (2015) 5yr/$90M - 32s 3.81, 26s 4.67
Shields (32) (2014) 4yr/$75m - 33S 3.91, 33s 5.85 14s 5.72

Big money signings
Cueto (30) (2015) 6yr/$130M - 32s 2.79, 19s 4.59
Zimmerman (31) (2015) 5yr/$110M - 18s 4.87, 24s 5.87
Price (30) (2015) 7yr/$217M - 35s 3.99, 11s 3.82
Grienke (32) (2015) 6yr/$206M - 26s 4.37, 25s 3.16
Lester (30) (2014) 6yr/$155M - 32s 3.44, 32s 2.44, 26s 4.37
Scherzer (30) (2014) 7yr/$210M - 33s 2.79, 34s 2.96, 24s 2.25

[andyb]

The missing element though is that we HAVE the money. We will not get close to a $200 million payroll for years and we can afford one with our TV contract. I know it offends people's sensibilities to overpay for a star, but it won't hurt us even if the contract is a complete failure (other than losing of course).

The Halladay trade was rare in that it was for a good pitcher with a reasonable contract (for a star). There are just not many opportunities like that (or for Lee). I wanted Grienke last year in that type of trade and certain people on this board said that would be bad. Grienke's contract is less reasonable than Halladay's was too. It would have been a great deal in hindsight. Our ability to afford a $30 million/year contract without blinking puts us in a rare category in baseball and we need to use that ability.

We need to spend money or prospects or both to get quality. We need to play at the top of the market because we really need someone better than our younger pitchers to take some pressure off of them.

[Austinfan]

The issue isn't money, it's performance.

Even the big money guys are inconsistent, there's Scherzer, Lester for 2 years and now ???, Grienke and Price have been #2/#3 starters and have 4-5 years left on their deals. Cueto and Zimmerman are just bad deals.

The second tier signings ($15-20M a year) are probably the worst value since most were 4-5 year deals and you're talking about the same production we got out of two years of Hellickson with out years remaining on their deals.

So unless you identify a "can't miss" ace, you're actually better with 1 to 2 year deals, and figure half will bomb. But you won't be stuck with 3 out years of putrid performance. So Klentak made the right decision, spend $60M, get a couple good performances, and end up with a half dozen prospects and no overhang. Even with bad luck, he's in better shape than if he had signed any of the second tier pitchers.

[allentown]

Hellickson can't be looked at in isolation, and he was still a $17 million man. More importantly, he was the only 'success' out of the 4 expensive #3 starter FAs we signed, starting with Burnett. So your preferred approach has had a success rate of only 25% and the 3 failures were just about total busts. It is time to spend some $ on the best FA we have any chance of signing, rather than the $100+ million we've spent on not very much, with no carry-over to a season in which we have a shot to reach even .500. That is totally inefficient. Any pitcher is a risk. We've gone the short-contract, mid-level quality route 4 times now. I'm very unhappy with the result and more than willing to roll the dice on a better FA. It is time to admit that your preferred approach has failed. No significant value from flips and Hellickson is the only guy to give in-season value, and that during two awful, pointless years.

[Austinfan]

Some back luck, Morton had a fluke injury.
Kendrick was solid until he got hurt, Saunders and Buchholz were total flops.

However, if you look at the second tier pitchers, most are flops within two years of signing, you might get 2 good (not great) years out of 5, at $16-20M a year.

The difference between signing (3) 1-2 year guys at $8-12M or one $5yr guy at $80M is that with the former, you have a chance to trade for prospects and you go into 2020 with a clean slate, the expected production over the next two years is similar for either option. You'll spend more money up front, get a little more production up front, maybe get some low level prospects and go into 2020 with all your options intact.

If FA pitchers actually performed, I'd have no problem spending money, but their track record is probably as bad or worse than gambling on one of Eshelman, Lively or Leiter pitching well next year.

[andyb]

Even the big money guys are inconsistent, there's Scherzer, Lester for 2 years and now ???, Grienke and Price have been #2/#3 starters and have 4-5 years left on their deals. Cueto and Zimmerman are just bad deals.

The majority of the performances of those pitchers was good though. Even what you call 2/3 starter quality is generally 4+ WAR. In other words that performance makes the contracts worthwhile.

To get quality you need to overpay. Either in money or prospects. Everything has risk. It is all about mitigating that risk and when you can afford it (like we can now with a low payroll) then the risk is minimal.

[allentown]

First, I just don't see a need, or even a competitive advantage, in going into 2020 with a clean slate. We simply aren't going to be able to go over $200 million in 2020 or 2021.

Looking at pitching, between Morton, Bucholtz, the very expensive Burnett, and Hellickson we did not get even 2 good/not great seasons and we got zilch on flipping. We spent $8 mill on Morton, $13 mill on Buchholtz, $24 million on Hellickson, and $15 million on Burnett. That's $60 million on basically #3/4 starters who come with some issues. For those $ we got 2.9 WAR from Hellickson in 2016 and 1 WAR from him this year. So we paid $15 mill/WAR. I think the odds are we do better than that on a longer deal for a better SP.

[zambonir]

AF's position seems to be, don't ever sign a top of the market FA. Mine is merely that they shouldn't, and likely can't, do it this year. That they will eventually do so, and eat some money at the end, is a given.

[bkox]

John Clark CSN/NBC (JClarkCSN)

[nycphils]

I think the guy I'd make a play for is Madison Bumgartner - the Giants need a rebuild and I'll be a big package of 4 or 5 guys headlined by an OF and Kilome and another (Pivetta?) might pry him away. he's 28, so he's got at least 5-6 years of high level performance.

[phillychuck]

Dave Cameron over at Fangraphs has an article up about our recent promotion, Rhys Hoskins:

Rhys Hoskins Looks Kind of Awesome | FanGraphs Baseball

[phillychuck]

Bumgarner has an incredibly favorable contract--just $12 M each of the next two years. I don't think the Giants will deal him.