2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

andyb 2017-08-22 20:50:31 UTC #383

I don't really have 100% confidence in "team speak" statements like that though. They could easily move him in Spring Training and the real clue might be how many veteran starters they decide to add in the offseason.

zambonir 2017-08-22 21:44:12 UTC #384

Right, they are until they aren't. They don't have to hand him the closer's job either. If they go into ST with two vets plus Nola, Velasquez and Eickhoff will be competing with three or four other people for the 4th and 5th slot. Unless the second vet isn't a lock either.

andyb 2017-08-22 22:02:30 UTC #385

They could also intentionally try to put VV in a role like Arizona gave Archie Bradley this year. The 2-inning late inning role distinct from closer. There are some physical and stuff-related comparisons between Bradley and Velasquez that are interesting:

bkox 2017-08-22 23:37:41 UTC #386

bkox 2017-08-23 03:33:02 UTC #387

zambonir 2017-08-23 04:00:43 UTC #388

Looks like he lost his job to Lively, and Leiter's back in the rotation for Eflin I guess? It's hard to keep track.

bkeich 2017-08-23 04:46:43 UTC #389

Well, he missed most of last season and a significant portion of this season. That isnt terrible of course, it is only twice, but injuries are happening to him. He has had a very, very good season, not saying he hasnt, but he has missed 25 games this season due to injury and will probably miss another 20-38. He needs to prove that he can maintain an OPS over .800 AND stay on the field to be a big asset, I agree when he plays he is an asset.

I was looking at progress, his play on the field is great but he is giong to end up missing 1/3 of the season after missing 2/3 last year.

bkeich 2017-08-23 04:48:49 UTC #390

Struck me as funny... "is still learning to play 3B", yea, it has been like 3 days. No kidding.

bkeich 2017-08-23 04:59:48 UTC #391

Interesting reclamation project. Probably nothing but worth a flyer to see what happens.

zambonir 2017-08-23 05:05:30 UTC #392

I still believe the Phillies will sign or trade for a LF next season, and hopefully someone younger and better/healthier than Kendrick. Williams will enter ST as the 4th OF but they will find the ABs for him, and that may or may not include replacing Altherr if he gets hurt again. I don't think Altherr's injuries this year suggest a pattern, but also think he will always be at risk for another wrist injury.

bkeich 2017-08-23 05:08:59 UTC #393

It is funny to read this, as of course this season before the year there was great discussion about Altherr not having a chance to play because of Kendrick and Saunders. I hope next year repeats the same results with Williams in the Altherr role in your scenario.

Phanatical 2017-08-23 05:27:40 UTC #394

At this point in the rebuild, we should give VV one more year as a starter. He has the raw stuff. When I see him interviewed, he seems to acknowledge what he has to do to be a successful starter. If he can master his command and control issues, he could be good. We can always move him to the pen later. Too early for that now.

If we consider all of the other starters for next year, not named Nola, who has a higher upside that VV? Eickhoff? Pivetta? Elfin? Lively? Vince should definitely be a starter in that crew.

bkox 2017-08-23 05:39:28 UTC #395

Williams has earned his shot to start next year. (Unless he like goes 0 for Sept or something). He has a 832 OPS, 117 OPS+ and the second highest slugging percentage on the team behind Altherr. (and Hoskins but SSS). I would be very upset if out opening day OF isnt Williams, Herrera and Altherr. Unless we trade for Trout or something.

As for injuries. it seems everyone on every team is injury prone now. Seems every team uses the DL heavily. Want to hear an amazing number...

502...

502 players have been on the disabled list at least once this year in MLB. The Phillies have used the DL 19 times for 13 players...(542 total days, 14.7M paid to DL'd players) Even more shocking.. The Dodgers, on a pace for a record for wins in a season, have used the DL 36 times for 26 players.

Players get hurt alot more now. You really need a roster of 35-40 in order to get through a season. Everyone questioned the Dodgers when they kept signing people in the past offseason. But its totally worked for them.

One more staggering number. 513 million dollars. Thats how much MLB teams have paid to players so far this season while they have been on the DL.

Heres my source for the DL numbers in case anyone is interested

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/disabled-list/

zambonir 2017-08-23 05:48:52 UTC #396

Well, that's the thing, it doesn't matter who the 3rd or 4th OF is just like it doesn't matter who the 4th or 5th starter is. They're all gonna get a full load of ABs or IPs.

Of course if the Phillies go after Trout or Stanton or any younger controllable OF, one of the three incumbents probably gets included in the deal. But if they could get Upton and Fulmer, for example, giving Upton playing time at Williams expense would be a small price to pay to get Fulmer (assuming Williams wasn't in that deal, which would be about taking $ off Detroit's hands as much as giving back talent).

To me a team with veteranish LF plus Herrera and Williams and Altherr is simply a better team. Now, since the team still probably isn't really trying to win next year - rotation won't be good enough, IF will be breaking in as many as three rookies plus a 3B trying to come back - you can certainly afford to stand pat. We'll see.

Austinfan 2017-08-23 15:16:14 UTC #397

Phillies should be loading up on players like Alvarez, what's to lose?
They've have such bad luck with guys like Morton and Buchholtz, might as well go the other direction and bring a bunch of rehab, rebound types to ST and hope to find a couple gems at low cost.

allentown 2017-08-23 16:42:21 UTC #398

I think we should do that. We also should sign a front-line FA pitcher.

Austinfan 2017-08-23 16:46:12 UTC #399

If only there was one available this year, the two top guys are going to get grossly overpaid and will be useless by the time we're competitive. It's not the money, but the length of contract they'll command that makes me say no.
I'm just hoping there's a solid #3 out there to eat some innings so young pitchers can throw every five days in Lehigh and work on their stuff, Pivetta is a good example, he needed a full AAA season or more.

allentown 2017-08-23 17:05:58 UTC #400

Every good FA will always be over priced. We can afford it.

andyb 2017-08-23 17:16:21 UTC #401

I'd rather use young AAAA pitchers than have a strategy that counts on lots of innings from reclamation projects. Yes you might get some performance for few dollars, but most of them are inexpensive for a reason. We'll do it anyway because all teams should have their eyes open for reclamation projects, but in and of itself that is not a strategy.

We have the money to bid on Darvish. We should bid on Darvish. If he does not want to come to Philly we should look at expensive arbitration pitchers that are a year or two away from free agency and trade for one. Archer will probably be too expensive because he has a favorable contract. We should find somebody with a less favorable contract or who will require a $15 million plus arbitration award.

If we do not use our money to add talent then we are wasting a resource. We should also go for quality now. The team needs to send a message that they are ready to think about competing. We have a young lineup that could get good in a hurry and a pitching staff full of question marks.

zambonir 2017-08-23 17:17:28 UTC #402

I just don't see how you can want Darvish, his injury history is too prohibitive even before you start to age him out on the new contract. Plus why would he sign here? Ditto Arrieta. With it being a seller's market it will be hard to be one of the two best offers.

Depending on whether they sign one or two FA starters, it will be via trade, and/or someone like Hellickson (but hopefully better, because I don't mean a one-year deal guy, just a mid-level, three year, type. Though Hellickson will probably do okay after all).