2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

bkox 2017-08-20 00:11:46 UTC #282

Alfaro has played 2 games at first base since the beginning of 2015. My guess is that they are trying to access if hes a viable option there as they try to figure out their catcher options for next year. If they end up carrying 3 catchers, then Knapp and Alfaro will both need to show versatility.

allentown 2017-08-20 00:40:31 UTC #283

This makes sense. Alfaro has started hot in his few MLB AB and it makes sense to keep him in the lineup, rather than chill him on the bench. Removing Joseph is removing a guy who currently hits like a pitcher. I guess the Phillies also want to continue the Hoskins in LF experiment a bit longer. It makes sense to me to leave him in LF, rather than switch him back and forth between LF and 1B for now. I also like finding a way to carry 3 catchers next year.

bkox 2017-08-20 00:50:37 UTC #284

andyb 2017-08-20 01:03:34 UTC #285

Well I guess we can admit that even the Phillies think Joseph has no value. Of course if Alfaro had ever played the OF it would make much more sense to put him out there since he runs much better than Hoskins and of course has a great arm.

No idea if they are entertaining keeping 3 catchers next year. It probably will not help Alfaro's development to bounce him around positionally, but one can also argue that Rupp or Knapp might be better than the Perkins/Nava/Kelly mediocrity that has populated our bench this year. Yes I know Nava has hit well when healthy. But realistically we all know that he is not that good.

zambonir 2017-08-20 01:25:58 UTC #286

It also goes back to Mackanin's statement that Rupp would catch Nola and Eickhoff which I still don't understand really. But yeah, nothing wrong with keeping all options open for a three-catcher scenario.

zambonir 2017-08-20 01:29:17 UTC #287

Another reason Joseph really had no value, from the Salisbury story. What good is a RH DH or back-up 1B if he can't hit from his platoon side?

Joseph is hitting just .185 (20 for 108) against lefties for the season.

mdougherty12 2017-08-20 05:08:30 UTC #288

Joseph has a ridiculous .178 BABIP against lefties this season.

zambonir 2017-08-20 05:45:00 UTC #289

yeah, I get that it's not sustainable, but for an in-season, role-specific acquisition, even if a team was willing to concede that it would eventually even out, they'd use that to depress the trade price.

Austinfan 2017-08-20 13:29:07 UTC #290

Rupp is now up to .766 OPS and is finishing hot, he's figured something out.
Alfaro is probably two years from being a legitimate startng catcher, and a low pressure role while he learns (since he has to be on the ML roster) is not a bad idea, playing 1B and OF for him and Knapp allows them to get additional PA and provides a deep bench.

Joseph and Franco have the raw talent but something is very wrong with them, the league has adjusted, they haven't adjusted back. And it's no longer a SSS.

It won't hurt if Hoskins can play LF as well as 1B, given the 1B candidates in the future, flexibility never hurts.
And Herrera, Altherr and Williams have body types that make you wonder if they're candidates for 162 games.

tom81 2017-08-20 14:41:14 UTC #291

Neither of them should be on a MLB roster playing full time till they figure it out. They need to be in AAA where they won't be under so much pressure. For Joseph the only question is can the afford tying up a 40 man spot for him next year. Franco is a more interesting question. They could go with a stopgap next year such as Galvis r some random 1 year signing. The could also look to trade from excess to get a real 3B next year. I'd love to get someone like Jake Lamb packaged for Cesar Hernandez or Scott Kingery plus. We really need at least a stopgap fix for 3B next year as Franco is just not ready.

schooldoc 2017-08-20 15:23:49 UTC #292

I wouldn't describe Franco's situation as him being "not ready." He's nearly 25 years old with over 1500 career major league plate appearances.

His adjusted OPS by season (plate appearances in parentheses):
2014: 13 (58)
2015: 130 (335)
2016: 95 (630)
2017: 74 (489)

The data suggests to me that after a successful 2015 season, the league made adjustments to Franco and he has not adjusted back. I, personally, don't really believe a demotion to the minors is the answer. He's got some of the tools--bat speed, strength--but he's either going to make the adjustments in plate discipline in Philadelphia, or he isn't. He's got one more season to do it.

phillychuck 2017-08-20 16:41:07 UTC #293

The best stop-gap (and possibly long-term) solution to the 3B "problem" if Franco doesn't adjust is Cesar Hernandez. He's got enough arm to play SS, so he can certainly play 3B. He has quickness and a good glove. He's a 2-3 WAR bat, and an ideal lead-off hitter:

Hernandez 3B
Kingery 2B
Hererra CF
Hoskins 1B
Altherr RF
Williams LF
Knapp/Rupp/Alfaro C
Galvis/Crawford SS

I think that lineup has a lot of potential going forward, and I'd be fine with it next season. Get a veteran #1 and #2 starter and let's roll the dice and see what happens.

allentown 2017-08-20 17:29:17 UTC #294

Franco is actually worse than not just ready. He has been regressing at an alarming rate. His decline reminds me of Howard after teams shifted against him and pitchers focused more on junk down and away. He never adjusted. Franco has never adjusted.

Age 22: killed it in AAA with a .923 OPS, then .840 in Philly
Age 23: down to .733 OPS in Philly
Age 24 (this year): down to .665 OPS in Philly; his only good month was July, now AWFUL in August

Perhaps starting 2018 in AAA would be the shock therapy necessary for him to be willing to make changes.

andyb 2017-08-20 17:52:14 UTC #295

I don't know about shocking a player like Franco with a trip to AAA. There is just a very real possibility that he was not good enough in the first place. The whole tone on saying Franco has not adjusted seems to fault him for not trying. We knew he was not a great athlete which is apparent in the defense and speed. We knew he had "arm bar" issues or whatever led to a longer swing than was ideal. But potentially those swing issues could also be the various tricks and cheats that a player without enough batspeed uses to succeed. When the league adjusts the tricks no longer work.

This is not definitive of course. Franco could figure out how to shorten his swing. But sometimes there are reasons why a player like Franco (or a Cody Asche) never cross that sustained big league success threshold. The reasons can often be that they are not good enough.

allentown 2017-08-20 18:26:53 UTC #296

Same prescription with no solution then. Whether he just peaked at 22, was never that good and went years before teams learned to pitch and defense him, whether he has failed to adjust because he is hitting the only way his talent allows or because he is comfortable and doesn't desire to change what worked in the past for him, he belongs in AAA rather than Philly until he successfully adjusts, which I agree may well not be possible.

I think,however, that a natural first tendency is for a player to look back at how he was hitting, when things were going well, and determine what he has changed since then, such as different pre-swing hand position. This often corrects the problem, but Franco's case seems to be more one of the way he was hitting when things were going well won't work now, because teams have gotten better at pitching and defensing him. I could well be wrong, but that's why it seems similar to the Howard problem to me. It's not shedding a new bad habit, it's reinventing yourself to adjust to what the other teams are doing.

zambonir 2017-08-20 19:39:10 UTC #297

So, JP Crawford is playing 3B today.

bkox 2017-08-20 20:37:20 UTC #298

andyb 2017-08-20 20:40:19 UTC #299

This makes me a little nervous. Hoskins was an opportunity for playing time. Crawford seems more like trying out something for next year which would be a bad long run decision for the organization. With Kingery there could be more of a reason because Hernandez may be just as good as Kingery projects to be. That is not the case with Galvis.

flyers19rw 2017-08-20 20:40:40 UTC #300

It could also be that too many people have got to him about how to hit that he's confused. This off season will probably be a critical one for him. He has to know that this has not been a good season for him. If he wants to make it in the game, he needs to evaluate what he's doing and make changes. It may be good for him to get away from Makanin, Stairs and anyone else that is and has been whispering in his ear. The obvious thing to start with is pitch and zone understanding. Unless and until this improves, he can change his hands, stance, swing, whatever, he's doomed.

zambonir 2017-08-20 21:06:43 UTC #301

Weren't you also saying he shouldn't go to winter ball or was that someone else? At the time I suggested (only half-seriously) that he was a much better hitter when he used to go to winter ball.

The complete evisceration of the pitching depth has probably bought Franco one more half-season, or at least the chance to rest and go to ST and reset.The other story in the paper today is about how the Phillies need to get a couple of veteran starters (duh) but suggests they are more likely to trade for short-termers (again) than buy at the top of the FA market (not that there is aren't good reason against that, both for the team and the free agents).

But they can't possibly keep all these guys on the 40 and the 25 (three catchers, Crawford/Galvis, Hernandez/Kingery, Joseph/Hoskins), they are going to have to make a few big decisions. But that's also how they could get the pitching (i.e, you get a much better guy for one of those 2B than you do for single A guys).