2017 Free Agents Receiving Qualifying Offers

LoneStarPhan 2016-11-15 01:28:20 UTC #41

With Hellickson in the fold, the Phillies now do not need to trade for or sign a free agent veteran starting pitcher. I think had Hellickson left, they would have sought a veteran starter. It may cost more now, but they are not tied down to the pitcher for more than the coming season.

Austinfan 2016-11-15 01:43:12 UTC #42

I don't think the comp pick was the problem, rather teams saw him at best as a 2 WAR per year pitchers, so they were probably offering 3 years at $39-42M.
One year at $17M means the next two years only have to garner $22-25M to make the gamble worthwhile for Hellickson.

His 3 years with the Rays he only averaged 1.5 WAR, then had two offseasons, so teams probably think his 3.2 WAR last season was a fluke.
If he starts 30 games, puts up a FIP in the low 4s and 1.5 to 2.0 WAR, he'll get at least $22M for two years.
If he repeats last year's performance, he'll get 3 years for $45M to $54M.
So the only downside is if his arm falls off or his changeup goes south.

andyb 2016-11-15 02:24:51 UTC #43

Hellickson has had 6 full seasons in the big leagues, 3 of which were 3+ WAR. Of the three off seasons one was due to injury. So if a pitcher can have a 3 WAR season 60% of the time if healthy - that pitcher is pretty valuable. Hellickson is worth $15-$20 million a year in this era of $8+ million WARs. There are no sure things in baseball. Hellickson is relatively safe though (and young for a free agent).

The comp pick DID kill his value. A comp pick alone is worth more than $10 million in expected WAR, maybe more. So if Hellickson deserved $15 million a year, a team had to really pay the equivalent of $18-$20 million for his services. That is what hurt his value. He would likely have been offered a contract in the 3/40 range rather than 3/45 or 3/50. That difference in value is due to the comp pick.

phillychuck 2016-11-15 03:12:43 UTC #44

I hope the Phils will try to sign him to a 3-year deal. He's young for a FA and he likes it here. Good combination.

julio 2016-11-29 19:24:34 UTC #45

One of the "qualified" free agents is returning to his old club: