2017 Free Agents Receiving Qualifying Offers

[julio]

A total of 10 major-league free agents have been extended Qualifying Offers by their prior clubs (listed in inverse order of their prior teams' finish in 2016):

Jeremy Hellickson Phl
Yoenis Cespedes NYM
Neil Walker NYM
Mark Trumbo Bal
Edwin Encarnacion Tor
Jose Bautista Tor
Kenley Jansen LAD
Justin Turner LAD
Ian Desmond Tex
Dexter Fowler ChC

If these players decline the Qualifying Offers, they become "Qualified" free agents, whose prior clubs will receive a compensatory draft pick, after the 1st round in the 2017 draft, if the players sign with new clubs. Players have one week (until 11/14) to decide whether to accept or decline the Qualifying Offers.

[el-pietro]

If Hellickson is signed by another team, what pick would the Phillies get roughly?

[julio]

If Hellickson is signed by another team, what pick would the Phillies get roughly?

If Hellickson signs with another team, the Phils will receive the first pick in the compensation round, which occurs immediately after the regular first round (e.g., before the first "competitive balance" picks). This pick could theoretically be as high as #21 (if all ten players who received QOs sign with new teams, no two sign with the same team, and none of the signing teams has a protected first-round pick), or as low as #31 (if the only teams signing qualified free agents are those with protected first-round picks). It'll probably fall somewhere close to the middle of that range, or perhaps a bit lower - e.g., 26-28.

That possible range may tighten in the next week, if any of the ten FA offfered QO accept those offers. If that happens, the highest possible pick will go down by 1 for every FA that accepts a QO.

[andyb]

Several will undoubtedly sign with their old teams also, limiting the number of teams losing a pick to sign one of these players. I can't imagine Toronto losing both Encarnacion and Bautista. A guy like Justin Turner should probably sign the QO. Maybe Neil Walker too.

[Squire]

Several will undoubtedly sign with their old teams also, limiting the number of teams losing a pick to sign one of these players. I can't imagine Toronto losing both Encarnacion and Bautista. A guy like Justin Turner should probably sign the QO. Maybe Neil Walker too.

That was my take exactly. Turner and Walker should take the QO. And that Toronto will sign a multi-year extension with one of Encarnacion or Bautista, probably Encarnacion.

[julio]

Several will undoubtedly sign with their old teams also, limiting the number of teams losing a pick to sign one of these players. I can't imagine Toronto losing both Encarnacion and Bautista. A guy like Justin Turner should probably sign the QO. Maybe Neil Walker too.

That was my take exactly. Turner and Walker should take the QO. And that Toronto will sign a multi-year extension with one of Encarnacion or Bautista, probably Encarnacion.

All of which means that the Hellickson pick (assuming we get it) isn't going to move up to #21 (the theoretical best as of now). But 26-28 looks plausible; that's 3 to 5 forfeited first-round picks, out of about seven qualified FA signings. Last year, there were seven first-round draft pick forfeits, out of eleven qualified FA who signed.

[Squire]

Several will undoubtedly sign with their old teams also, limiting the number of teams losing a pick to sign one of these players. I can't imagine Toronto losing both Encarnacion and Bautista. A guy like Justin Turner should probably sign the QO. Maybe Neil Walker too.

That was my take exactly. Turner and Walker should take the QO. And that Toronto will sign a multi-year extension with one of Encarnacion or Bautista, probably Encarnacion.

All of which means that the Hellickson pick (assuming we get it) isn't going to move up to #21 (the theoretical best as of now). But 26-28 looks plausible; that's 3 to 5 forfeited first-round picks, out of about seven qualified FA signings. Last year, there were seven first-round draft pick forfeits, out of eleven qualified FA who signed.

Right but if we sign Desmond then that's the pick we would forfeit I think no matter where it ends up.

SQUIRE

[julio]

Right but if we sign Desmond then that's the pick we would forfeit I think no matter where it ends up.

That's correct - if we sign a qualified FA, we forfeit our highest unprotected pick. Our first round pick is protected, but that's the only one. So the cost of signing a Desmond is a pick in the mid-20s, not a pick in the mid-40s (second round) - assuming Hellickson declines the QO, of course.

[Lucky_Beagle]

Right but if we sign Desmond then that's the pick we would forfeit I think no matter where it ends up.

That's correct - if we sign a qualified FA, we forfeit our highest unprotected pick. Our first round pick is protected, but that's the only one. So the cost of signing a Desmond is a pick in the mid-20s, not a pick in the mid-40s (second round) - assuming Hellickson declines the QO, of course.

There is a very slim chance I would sign any FA and lose a pick in the 20's.

[Austinfan]

It would be worth losing the pick for a player in his 20s who could be a core player from 2018-2020 and beyond.
But I don't think anyone on that list qualifies.

Yoenis Cespedes NYM - 31, big 2015, but otherwise a 3.2 WAR player his other four seasons.
Neil Walker NYM - 31, averaged 3.2 WAR the last three seasons, 2B, not exactly a position of need
Mark Trumbo Bal - 30, 1B/OF, RH, 47 HRs but only 2.2 WAR due to poor fielding
Edwin Encarnacion Tor, 33, 1B, RH, good hit, poor field
Jose Bautista Tor, 35, really fell off last season
Kenley Jansen LAD, 29, closer, has maintained his velocity, if they were close he'd be worth it
Justin Turner LAD, 32, 3B, RH, weird career, replacement level player until 29, then 13 WAR the last three seasons
Ian Desmond Tex, 31, SS/OF, RH, peaked 26-28, bounceback at age 30, buyer beware. His fielding has regressed, as an OF a 1-2 WAR player.

I don't see anyone on this list I'd give up a late 1st rd to sign to a big contract.
Either they're too old or not a position of need.
Jansen is the best value (in terms of sacrificing a draft pick) but if we're trading RPs for prospects, "trading" a draft for a RP doesn't make sense.
Dexter Fowler ChC

Jose Bautista Tor
Kenley Jansen LAD
Justin Turner LAD
Ian Desmond Tex
Dexter Fowler ChC

[Squire]

Yeah, I wouldn't sign anyone that would cost me that pick....Of course, that cuts both ways in that I'm not sure anyone will think Hellickson is worth forfeiting a draft pick for either. In the old days you'd see the Top 10 first round teams sign guys since you only cost yourself a second round pick. However the 1-5 teams now want the extra picks so they can float someone down with the excess high pick allocation money. So still likely teams currently picking 24-30 who think they are close.

[Squire]

Are the Phillies getting the highest compensation pick because they are the team with the worst record among those that have extended a QO to a free agent?

[julio]

Are the Phillies getting the highest compensation pick because they are the team with the worst record among those that have extended a QO to a free agent?

Yes.

[andyb]

Are the Phillies getting the highest compensation pick because they are the team with the worst record among those that have extended a QO to a free agent?

Yes.

Finally getting some small advantage from a discriminatory baseball regulation that helps the wealthier teams that can afford to make qualifying offers. It is mostly good teams with money that can afford to do so.

[bkeich]

Are the Phillies getting the highest compensation pick because they are the team with the worst record among those that have extended a QO to a free agent?

Yes.
Finally getting some small advantage from a discriminatory baseball regulation that helps the wealthier teams that can afford to make qualifying offers. It is mostly good teams with money that can afford to do so.

True, but I suspect every team would have made this QO as it is obviously in Hellickson's best interest to decline. I just hope there is some team out there foolish enough to take the next step and give a mediocre starter a big contract and forfeit a draft pick. I fear we may be waiting pretty long into the offseason before a team makes this move as Hellickson really is not worth what he is about to get.

[zambonir]

Are the Phillies getting the highest compensation pick because they are the team with the worst record among those that have extended a QO to a free agent?

Yes.
Finally getting some small advantage from a discriminatory baseball regulation that helps the wealthier teams that can afford to make qualifying offers. It is mostly good teams with money that can afford to do so.

Does the data really bear that out? Last year the Padres (twice), White Sox and Orioles had picks, and the O's and Astros had players accept their offers. Even if there is a correlation, I would say the discrimination is the whole system, rich teams are just likely to keep high-service time players longer, and have second-time-around free agents. But so few QOs are ever accepted that poor teams ought to be able to gamble with them.

It's true that it favors good teams w/ money inasmuch as a good team with money isn't going to choose to trade a pending FA in July instead (though the Padres still made the opposite choice).

[andyb]

Are the Phillies getting the highest compensation pick because they are the team with the worst record among those that have extended a QO to a free agent?

Yes.
Finally getting some small advantage from a discriminatory baseball regulation that helps the wealthier teams that can afford to make qualifying offers. It is mostly good teams with money that can afford to do so.

Does the data really bear that out? Last year the Padres (twice), White Sox and Orioles had picks, and the O's and Astros had players accept their offers. Even if there is a correlation, I would say the discrimination is the whole system, rich teams are just likely to keep high-service time players longer, and have second-time-around free agents. But so few QOs are ever accepted that poor teams ought to be able to gamble with them.

It's true that it favors good teams w/ money inasmuch as a good team with money isn't going to choose to trade a pending FA in July instead (though the Padres still made the opposite choice).

Most of those teams are at least mid-market teams. White Sox are in Chicago. Baltimore has the DC TV market and a favorable agreement with the Nats. Houston is a big market in comparison these days (even with Philly in size, getting closer in revenue). Over the years smaller market teams tend to trade their QO-eligible tweeners because they can't afford the QO salary. Hellickson is actually not a tweener because he is young and had a good year. But if he was 32 and had a 4.20 ERA the Phillies might still have offered him a QO when other teams would not. Picking up $17 million is not a problem for a team like the Phillies in the way it would be for Pittsburgh for instance.

The Padres actually have a GM who understands the system. They did get a QO for Upton though there was no danger of him accepting. They took a risk with Ian Kennedy and won though that was probably their GM playing the odds a bit.

[Squire]

Heyman now tweeting that Hellickson may be someone that accepts the QO

[donaldorc]

Interesting if true. Not what anyone expected.

[Philsmania]

All the stuff online indicates that Boras is pushing Hellickson hard to hit the market. If Hellickson is resisting, he must really, really like it here. You can't help but wonder if he'll have a different agent in the not-to-distant future if he accepts the QO.