Where is this team headed based on 2016?

[bigegypt0417]

If you're gonna trade a young starter with only one year of starting experience, odds are he'll be a lot more valuable with two years of starting experience - if you think Rupp or Galvis will flop next year, so do other teams, so right now they're not valuable trade bait (unless you assume you're smarter than all those GMs out there). So there's no rush unless someone makes an offer you can't refuse.

Same with FAs, unless a young FA who is good value to this team comes available, only sign patches who fit with their long range plans.

I've never said do nothing or don't spend, I've always said make moves that have real value down the road and aren't just shuffling players to look like you're doing something, or spend money just because you have it.

TRUST THE PROCESS!!!

Cameron Rupp is 28 years old.
Galvis is not that much younger.

Your theory makes almost no sense in that you have everything to lose if they regress. I trust a proces which takes advantage and sells high.

[Austinfan]

You don't have "everything to lose" because their value isn't that high, they don't have proven track records and weren't premier prospects.
So you have limited downside, but substantial upside if they repeat or improve on their performance, because then they'd be proven commodities in their prime years.
Meanwhile, it buys you a year to see if their replacements are actually good enough to start.

If they have more value than I presume, "someone will make an offer they can't refuse" and they'll be traded.
But if you don't get that kind of offer, there is no reason to trade them just to make a deal.

[zambonir]

If you're gonna trade a young starter with only one year of starting experience, odds are he'll be a lot more valuable with two years of starting experience - if you think Rupp or Galvis will flop next year, so do other teams, so right now they're not valuable trade bait (unless you assume you're smarter than all those GMs out there). So there's no rush unless someone makes an offer you can't refuse.

Same with FAs, unless a young FA who is good value to this team comes available, only sign patches who fit with their long range plans.

I've never said do nothing or don't spend, I've always said make moves that have real value down the road and aren't just shuffling players to look like you're doing something, or spend money just because you have it.

TRUST THE PROCESS!!!

Trading Rupp would be the process. Including the part where it might make the team worse short-term. But if you are prepared to go with Ellis and Knapp (followed by Alfaro) you have to hope Ellis bounces back (a big hope, given his age and position).

Even in the age of analytics, GMs are not a monolith, and different team have different needs. Just because Klentak may or may not have decided Rupp is not the team's future (on a team that isn't looking to make the postseason until 2019) doesn't mean another GM might like him.

I just think the repeated media hints regarding Rupp, from the public questions about his pitcher-handling to the trade speculation is a case of smoke=fire. My argument is not that the Phillies should or shouldn't trade Rupp, it's that they will. Certainly could be wrong.

[andyb]

I do not think they would want Ellis if the role might be that of a starting catcher. He fits as a backup to Rupp, not Knapp. If they traded Rupp I think they bring in someone younger on a short deal. Of course Alfaro or Knapp could have a great winter and change some thinking, but most teams take a safer approach and have more redundancy at catcher than at other positions.

[EDmuch]

Maybe the one they trade, as part of a package, is Knapp.

[kmc1019]

Does anyone have an explanation as to why Alfaro has not been playing more or receiving more at-bats? It seems to me we are wasting valuable opportunities and development time by having him sit on the bench and watch. I understand and agree that he is ticketed for Lehigh next year, but that is no reason for not playing him more now.

[Philsmania]

While it definitely makes sense to sell high on Rupp, Galvis and, I would add, C. Hernandez, the question is whether other organizations are as sold on them and their value as we are. Right now, they've all just had one good season and, as a result, haven't really proven themselves in terms of consistently performing at a good level. In contrast, Giles was effective for two seasons, albeit mostly in a set up role.

[Philsmania]

Does anyone have an explanation as to why Alfaro has not been playing more or receiving more at-bats? It seems to me we are wasting valuable opportunities and development time by having him sit on the bench and watch. I understand and agree that he is ticketed for Lehigh next year, but that is no reason for not playing him more now.

See also, "Why Gomez being sent out there for every last save opportunity instead of Neris?"

[Austinfan]

Alfaro because they don't think he's ready, and they brought him up to give him a taste of ML baseball and because a 3rd catcher is a nice luxury to have around.

Gomez is closing because Pete is insane (or Gomez has compromising picture of Pete with an intern of either sex).

[allentown]

If you're gonna trade a young starter with only one year of starting experience, odds are he'll be a lot more valuable with two years of starting experience - if you think Rupp or Galvis will flop next year, so do other teams, so right now they're not valuable trade bait (unless you assume you're smarter than all those GMs out there). So there's no rush unless someone makes an offer you can't refuse.

Same with FAs, unless a young FA who is good value to this team comes available, only sign patches who fit with their long range plans.

I've never said do nothing or don't spend, I've always said make moves that have real value down the road and aren't just shuffling players to look like you're doing something, or spend money just because you have it.

TRUST THE PROCESS!!!

Cameron Rupp is 28 years old.
Galvis is not that much younger.

Your theory makes almost no sense in that you have everything to lose if they regress. I trust a proces which takes advantage and sells high.

Cameron Rupp is not old. He's like 24 in catcher years. This was his age 27 season, and he will have almost 400 MLB ABs. Carlos Ruiz didn't approach 400 AB until his age 28 season. Galvis isn't old either. This was his age 26 season. He should just be entering his prime years. Both of these guys could have the best 4-5 years of their careers ahead of them. This season likely one of top 5 for each of them, but it is reasonable to hope for/expect four more of roughly the same quality.

[andyb]

They are not playing Alfaro every day because this month is more of a reward for him than anything else. Rupp is the starter and deserves to continue playing 2/3 of the time. There will be plenty of time for Alfaro to get at bats later on.

[andyb]

Cameron Rupp is not old. He's like 24 in catcher years. This was his age 27 season, and he will have almost 400 MLB ABs. Carlos Ruiz didn't approach 400 AB until his age 28 season. Galvis isn't old either. This was his age 26 season. He should just be entering his prime years. Both of these guys could have the best 4-5 years of their careers ahead of them. This season likely one of top 5 for each of them, but it is reasonable to hope for/expect four more of roughly the same quality.

Generally agree with that though there is not much statistical evidence that catchers last longer than players at other positions. The mental demands of the position do mean that it sometimes takes a couple of extra years for them to make it. The downside is that they then age quickly once they hit age 30 or 31. So while Rupp certainly looks positioned to have 4 or 5 more decent years, he could also be positioned for a relatively short career.

Galvis is also young enough where he could improve, but his situation is a little different than Rupp. His power this year is out of character with his past. His walk rate has also not improved as he added power. Power is up all over the league among players with marginal past power, so I am not sure this is anything more than an blip that is not sustainable. Hitters that have made true improvements tend to see increases in the walk rate or decreases in their K rate. Galvis is the opposite with fewer walks this year and many more strikeouts (103 last year, 136 so far this year). Galvis looks like he is swinging for the fences and leagues adapt on players with that approach all the time.

Both players have some value now. Rupp just seems the one where it is a little more sustainable.

[Austinfan]

Have you watched Galvis? Franco has a far more exaggerated swing with his helmet falling off.
Galvis actually has a pretty balanced swing, though once he got to 20 HRs he started focusing more on making contact to raise his BA.
Not saying Galvis will be a great hitter, he doesn't have the eye, but .700-.750 OPS is looking sustainable if he maintains his swing mechanics. And with his defense, that's a 3-4 WAR player.
Thing is he has to repeat it next year to be valued at that level.
In which case he'd be a very valuable trade piece in winter 2017.

[andyb]

Have you watched Galvis? Franco has a far more exaggerated swing with his helmet falling off.
Galvis actually has a pretty balanced swing, though once he got to 20 HRs he started focusing more on making contact to raise his BA.
Not saying Galvis will be a great hitter, he doesn't have the eye, but .700-.750 OPS is looking sustainable if he maintains his swing mechanics. And with his defense, that's a 3-4 WAR player.
Thing is he has to repeat it next year to be valued at that level.
In which case he'd be a very valuable trade piece in winter 2017.

Franco has more talent and can get away with that approach. He walked more and struck out less this year. Galvis is as good a bet for a 575 OPS as a 750 OPS. He is at 1.3 WAR this year. I think you are the only person on the planet who sees a 3-4 WAR player. Galvis' power is likely because he changed his approach. Why do you criticize every single other player with a bad BB/K ratio but not Galvis? Rollins got away with an aggressive style because he walked twice as much and struck out 50 times a year less. With Galvis the league is far more likely to make an adjustment to him that he can't handle.

[schooldoc]

Looks like the Phils will pick 8th in the June 2017 draft. Given their run differential, it's not as high as they deserve. But they were stuck in 10th for a while, so I'll take 8th.

Looks like a potentially strong college pitching crop, which I think suits the Phils' needs well, also. Give me another top arm.

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[zambonir]

I do not think they would want Ellis if the role might be that of a starting catcher. He fits as a backup to Rupp, not Knapp. If they traded Rupp I think they bring in someone younger on a short deal. Of course Alfaro or Knapp could have a great winter and change some thinking, but most teams take a safer approach and have more redundancy at catcher than at other positions.

If they do it I think it's because they are going to roll the dice on Alfaro or Knapp. Rupp started just over 100 games this year. Ellis started 50 and Ruiz 55 (between both teams). It doesn't seem like that big a jump to me, for either the young player or the old player, to go 80 games each instead of 100/50-60. The vet might begin the season as the ostensible starter and gradually cede playing time.

But you could be right. Trading Knapp also very possible. What doesn't really make sense is having both Knapp and Alfaro in AAA.

[andyb]

I do not think they would want Ellis if the role might be that of a starting catcher. He fits as a backup to Rupp, not Knapp. If they traded Rupp I think they bring in someone younger on a short deal. Of course Alfaro or Knapp could have a great winter and change some thinking, but most teams take a safer approach and have more redundancy at catcher than at other positions.

If they do it I think it's because they are going to roll the dice on Alfaro or Knapp. Rupp started just over 100 games this year. Ellis started 50 and Ruiz 55 (between both teams). It doesn't seem like that big a jump to me, for either the young player or the old player, to go 80 games each instead of 100/50-60. The vet might begin the season as the ostensible starter and gradually cede playing time.

But you could be right. Trading Knapp also very possible. What doesn't really make sense is having both Knapp and Alfaro in AAA.

I think they still felt comfortable with Ruiz as an every day (or at least 100-game) starter even after Rupp won the starting job. With Ellis I am not sure they would be comfortable with him ever playing more than roughly 50 games.

Trading Rupp is definitely rolling the dice a bit. It just would have a huge payoff if Alfaro stepped up and was as good or better. Then you have a good catcher plus significant trade return for Rupp. The risk is Alfaro/Knapp not being ready (fixed by a 1-2 year rental). There is also risk in Rupp regressing of course, as his past suggests more of a 700-725 OPS guy than an 800 OPS guy. At that point in a year or two the return for Rupp would be less as he would be older (29-30) and more expensive (arbitration).

[bkeich]

Every time I read about the idea of trading Rupp because we have replacements coming up in a short time I am reminded that our last young catcher that was going to take over the position in now our 1B.

Any other position I think there is logic to trading a player at their highest value when you have a replacement available makes some sense, but Catcher is different. It takes a couple of years to just be competent once a player gets to the majors. Ruiz almost lost his job in his 2nd season because he was not performing, not all that long ago Rupp was not considered a starter because of game management.

If Alfaro or Knapp were in the majors as a backup and showing they were ready I could see making a move, but we are probably at least 2 years away from either of these guys being settled into the job, if ever.

Joseph was at least as 'sure' as either of these guys, until he wasn't.

[zambonir]

I guess my belief that Rupp will be traded can't be separated from my belief that the GM still doesn't care about competing next year. And the other day he said the only goal for this past season was to decide who was worth keeping and who wasn't. If next year's team is worse (offensively) w/o Rupp it doesn't matter. If Alfaro and Knapp both flop the loss of Rupp still probably doesn't matter if Klentak doesn't project him as the starter from 2018-2020. So that is one part of it, and selling high is the other. We shall see.

But no doubt, while Joseph's situation is unique, Alfaro has had his injuries too. And nobody projects Knapp as a surefire major league starting catcher.