The '25-'26 Philadelphia Flyers thread

[bigegypt0417]

https://www.broadstreethockey.com/post/jeff-marek-thinks-ducks-wont-match-flyers-leo-carlsson-offer-sheet/

[zambonir]

Ironic that this all might turn on what Cutter Gauthier wants.

But also, if it's really true that he refused to play for the Flyers because they wouldn't let him start his ELC one year sooner, was he wrong?

[Florida_Sunshine]

I think a lot of that is true but I also think he was influenced somewhat by whispers from a former player.

[Florida_Sunshine]

If I am the Ducks, I take the four picks or work out a trade with the Flyers for guys like Tippett, Cates, and Ristolainen and some of our prospects. I guess we will know soon.

[zambonir]

From what I understand no truth to that at all.

[Squire]

Sounds like Giroux is re-signing with Ottawa

[xogfog]

I guess Giroux didn't want to wait for a deal depending on Carlsson. Or, Briere told him to go ahead and sign elsewhere because he is confident the Ducks aren't matching.

[xogfog]

My current thoughts on the offer sheet for Carlsson. Verbeek said publicly that he would match any offer. I think he was thinking any offer sheet would be 14 - 15 and they could match, he never saw an 18 mil offer front loaded with 85 mil of the 90 as signing bonus, which he never gives out, coming. He then panicked and signed Mintyukov for double what he thought he'd get him for, which means if he matches, he'll only have around 9 mil to sign Gauthier (who is never going to sign for that with Carlsson making 18) and he still has to put a defense together. And let's face it, if he was going to match, wouldn't he have done it already? I think he has to save face and say the same thing Keith Jones said about Gautheir, "if he doesn't want to be a Duck, he won't be".

What could be going on is something like the Gratton deal, they are trying to work out a deal with the Flyers to not match but trade a couple of the picks back for Tippett and Cates, or maybe Ristolainen, Tippett and Cates.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Totally agree.

[zambonir]

Giroux will presumably have incentives again which might have helped the Flyers be cap-compliant now, but not later.

It's crazy to think that the Gratton deal was for less money, total, than for one year of the Carlsson contract. And that Renberg and Dykhuis got the Flyers all four picks back. I kind of think the Flyers will only be able to get one pick back from Anaheim, and will have to do some other wheeling and dealing. Or the Flyers will have to sweeten Anaheim deal with a younger cheaper player or prospect.

[bigegypt0417]

Plan B...

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/flyers-prepare-second-massive-offer-132040231.html

[LegoDoom]

I'm almost positive the CBJ would match.

[zambonir]

Still seems entirely speculative anyway ("it's been surmised" is not Portzline reporting anything; the Yahoo story itself is clickbait). But considering three other teams made offers to Carlsson (Flyers was the one he accepted), somebody's probably gonna.

[andyb]

It is just rare that a restricted free agent is worth 4 number ones. It really needs to be almost a hall of fame player and those players are generally getting long term deals before they hit restricted free agency.

The analysis on the Carlsson contract were that he was not quite worth either the salary or the draft pick compensation, though the counter is that if you want to win now making a bet on a 21-year-old is always better than the bet on a player over 30. So the Flyers want to make that bet and they have had enough picks the past few years that they are comfortable doing so with an above average farm system.

[zambonir]

Losing the picks won't hurt as much if the Flyers' bet pays off, I.e. if this move turns them into a Conference Finalist caliber team in 2029 and 2030, those picks are not worth as much than if they're first-round losers or a lottery team. Plus in the meantime they have the extra pick from Toronto, and the possibility of banking another one in a subsequent trade (whether with Anaheim or otherwise).

In any case teams are clearly willing to risk the overpay because of both the rising cap and extremely limited UFA market (in addition to most FAs being old).

Regardless of what happens with Carlsson it will be interesting to see what the Flyers do with their own RFAs. Has to be either a one-year deal (basically kicking the can) or a two-year deal (which would let them reach UFA status) in arb, or they can work out extensions and not reach arb.

[Austinfan]

They can do 2 yaer bridge deals, then have another year to sign them to an extension.
Ideally, you want to do the extension at around 25-26, so it expires at 31 or 32 (7 year limit).
With a top prospect, you might extend them early, at 22-23, but then may have to re-signed him at 29 or so.

[Pat_Burrell]

Interesting comments today by Bill Meltzer

“The Leo Carlsson offer sheet is NOT about cap space or about the Ducks' ability (Henry Samueli's specifically) ability to afford a match. Rather, it's all about the Ducks' business operations model itself.

According to Forbes Magazine, the Ducks operating income for 2025-26 was $26 million. Operating income is earnings before expenses, taxes, depreciation, amortization, etc.)

If the Ducks match the Carlsson offer sheet. it will take a $20.8 million chunk out of their FY 2027 operating budget. They also have to plan for Cutter Gauthier and eventually Becket Sennecke contracts (which would undoubtedly include a huge front-loaded bonus structure if they make an exception for Carlsson).”

[zambonir]

Forbes doesn't actually have access to team's books, though they obviously have sources to draw on. But, much like their lists of individual net worth, it's still a guess, and as much for entertainment purposes as anything. And that number is actually from '24-'25, they haven't published their feature for last season yet.

In any case (as you can also read in Forbes)... Samueli just committed to putting $1 billion of his own money into the arena, which he doesn't own, and wouldn't fit into the team or arena's normal financial budget either. If he wants the team to pay this deal, he'll write the check. I gather from the coverage so far that he (or at least Verbeek) have taken a bit of a tightwad approach in general though. Flyers' play - and the fact that three other teams made it too - is as much a prediction that they won't as that they absolutely can't.

[zambonir]

You do have to think the Flyers told him it's not happening if Carlsson does. That's pretty much $3.5 million guaranteed and the $4 million mark not hard to hit either.

Claude Giroux re-signs with Senators on 1-year deal: What it means for Ottawa’s...

According to the source, who spoke anonymously to disclose details that aren’t yet public, the deal carries a $2 million cap hit with $3 million in potential performance bonuses, including $1.5 million if Giroux hits the 10-game mark and another $500,000 if he reaches 40 games.

Giroux’s contract also contains a full no-movement clause.

[LegoDoom]

You do have to think the Flyers told him it's not happening if Carlsson does. That's pretty much $3.5 million guaranteed and the $4 million mark not hard to hit either.

That makes a lot of sense. I also don't know how serious the rumor really was. G went to Ottawa for family reasons. Coming back to Philly makes some sense, but it never seemed like he was going to leave. It's a bit of a let down as I was a fan and would have liked a reunion.