The 2025 Philadelphia Phillies Draft Picks and Signings

[andyb]

Gilley is the rare pure cash Senior pick by the Phillies. We usually have half-slot bonuses like Craig got in the 5th.

That Craig bonus is interesting for a 6th year graduate student with a relief arm we like but clearly had zero leverage. Lots of teams would have offered him $10K and dared him to go to Japan or Korea.

[julio]

So...$584,370 under the 105% limit, with Youngerman and Ferrara TBD, and Walters and Dawson unsigned (assuming BA's numbers are all spot-on). We can maybe wrap this up today.

[julio]

Substantial article - interview - with Logan Dawson, from the BC perspective:

'I Want to be An Eagle': BC Baseball Commit Logan Dawson Debates Turning Pro or...

[andyb]

Substantial article - interview - with Logan Dawson, from the BC perspective:

Of course I see SI.com and think AI-generated article.

Guessing here that the Phillies may not have been sure a week ago whether they could make an offer in the $500K range or not (assuming both Ferrara and Dawson are in that ballpark). Locking down Fisher for much less than $2 million really opened things up.

[julio]

Youngerman is a Junior, so we have to assume his bonus is in the ballpark of slot - maybe $500k? Walters (assuming he signs) will get a token bonus, leaving something like $200k more available. So...$850K to sweeten the Ferrara and Dawson bonuses? (584+67+200) Of course, the Phillies know how much of that is committed to Ferrara (who is signed), but we don't, for now at least. Whatever's left is offered to Dawson.

But this only works when Walters signs.

[andyb]

But this only works when Walters signs.

He is probably a kid that deserves the $150K bonus he would get as an 11th round pick but is unlikely to get as an 8th round pick. Can we throw in signed Harper and Schwarber and Wheeler jerseys to ease his pain?

[zambonir]

They stopped doing the AI content with fake bylines when they got caught I think. But most of the site is still just the blogs. In this case obviously the writer really knows BC sports, as he should, since he only just graduated from there a few months ago! But he is a real journalist even if it is still essentially a fan site [most of the message board-driven college sports sites also employ real journalists these days, since no once else can!.

[Matt_Winkelman]

The problem is if he leaves then your pool is shot. He definitely would have had $150k offers in the 11th or later and is a better prospect than any of those players. So you give him $50,000 more than he would have gotten to have him agree to a massive underslot deal.

[julio]

BA has updated its signing database. It's reporting the Youngerman bonus as $564,500 (slot less $2,500), and the Ferrara bonus as $597,500. Nothing on Walters, Dawson, Schaefer. This leaves the Phils with $186,970 to sweeten an offer to Dawson (in addition to the slot's $150,000, for a total of $336,970), pending any slot savings from a Walters signing.

[Squire]

Another update to BA Database

https://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-results/

Youngerman got 564,500
Ferrara got 597,500

[Squire]

Yup. Thank you for this. Need the savings from Walters to get Dawson so the latter won't happen until the former is done. I have no idea what the hang up is. I'm fairly certain I saw a now expired IG story with Walters at CBP on Monday.

[julio]

Need the savings from Walters to get Dawson so the latter won't happen until the former is done. I have no idea what the hang up is. I'm fairly certain I saw a now expired IG story with Walters at CBP on Monday.

Who knows? Could be dollars; could be the physical. Could be something completely different. Maybe he's waiting for his girlfriend to fly in.

Ferrara got $600k. Dawson was not as highly rated (or drafted) as Ferrara, so he should realistically get less than that. With no saving from Walters, the Phils have $336,970. If they can sign Dawson for $450k, they need $113,030 from Walters. That would leave Walters with a $102,070 bonus. If Walters signs for $50k, they can give Dawson $500k. These figures could be fiddled a bit with contingency bonuses ($2,500 here, $2,500 there).

[Austinfan]

I would think most of these numbers were negotiated (not specifics, but talks about general sense of demands) pre-draft, and if an agent reneges on an agreement, his name is mud around the league and teams won't touch his players.

I mean you can't take someone and not know if he's going to cost $1.2 or $2.0+M to sign without endangering half your draft.

[julio]

Thinking more about what may be going on...

We know, from published information, that Logan Dawson is currently at BC, working out with the Eagles. He hasn't registered for classes yet (too early), but he likes the coach, a lot, and he's no doubt bonded with at least some of the other players.

On the other hand, he's a life-long Phillies fan, drafted by the team he loves, and they're offering him a large chuck of money to sign a contract.

I suspect he's undecided, torn between two very attractive options. I have no doubt his advisors let the Phillies know he wouldn't need more money than they have available for him - something like $500k. So it's not about the money; it's about making a decision - and giving up something really desirable either way. And Dawson's reps may well have told the Phillies something like that - he doesn't need more money, he just needs to choose, and he's struggling with that.

I suspect the Phils have an agreement with Brian Walters - that he's agreed to sign for something like $50k - but that the Phillies have told him to sit tight, and if Dawson ultimately opts for BC, then they'll increase the bonus they'll give Walters (probably to $150k). But they can't finalize that until Dawson commits, one way or the other.

They've probably given Dawson a "must decide" deadline (late this week?), but aren't pressuring him to choose sooner than that. It's a lot to put on an 18-year-old.

All just speculation, but it feels like it fits.

[owaistabish]

Pirates 2nd round pick Angel Cervantes going to school rather than signing with them. Cant say I feel bad for them - maybe try to win for once.

[phillychuck]

This seems very likely as you’ve laid it out. Hope one of the BC pitchers drills him in the glutes a couple of times in practice...

[fish]

but that the Phillies have told him to sit tight, and if Dawson ultimately opts for BC, then they'll increase the bonus they'll give Walters (probably to $150k).

“We’ll give you more money if the other guy doesn’t sign” doesn’t seem like something that would float with HR. If he does sign he becomes the guy that took $100k from that teammate .

If the Phillies don’t know what their last dollar is, it only makes sense for Dawson to wait until they do to get the most money.

[Philsmania]

Thinking more about what may be going on...

We know, from published information, that Logan Dawson is currently at BC, working out with the Eagles. He hasn't registered for classes yet (too early), but he likes the coach, a lot, and he's no doubt bonded with at least some of the other players.

On the other hand, he's a life-long Phillies fan, drafted by the team he loves, and they're offering him a large chuck of money to sign a contract.

I suspect he's undecided, torn between two very attractive options. I have no doubt his advisors let the Phillies know he wouldn't need more money than they have available for him - something like $500k. So it's not about the money; it's about making a decision - and giving up something really desirable either way. And Dawson's reps may well have told the Phillies something like that - he doesn't need more money, he just needs to choose, and he's struggling with that.

I suspect the Phils have an agreement with Brian Walters - that he's agreed to sign for something like $50k - but that the Phillies have told him to sit tight, and if Dawson ultimately opts for BC, then they'll increase the bonus they'll give Walters (probably to $150k). But they can't finalize that until Dawson commits, one way or the other.

They've probably given Dawson a "must decide" deadline (late this week?), but aren't pressuring him to choose sooner than that. It's a lot to put on an 18-year-old.

All just speculation, but it feels like it fits.

Phillies seemed to have a similar situation twelve years ago with Ben Wetzler l/k/a Ben Holmes. He was the the Phillies fifth round draft pick out of Oregon State but, at least publicly, it appeared that he really loved Oregon State and his teammates there and wanted to help them back to the CWS in which they played his junior year before the Phillies drafted him and--again at least publicly--really seemed to struggle with his decision which went right down to the signing deadline. Ultimately, he chose Oregon State over the Phillies. However, that same year, the Phillies also had a busted pick involving another guy out of the Pacific Northwest (Jason Monda at Washington State who made it clear he wanted to go to medical school and become a doctor unless the money was dramatically good), so I am thinking the scout up in those parts may have blown it with his pre-draft projections of their bonus demands. Wolever then ratted them out to the NCAA which led to the end of his career as a scouting director.

[zambonir]

Wolever then ratted them out to the NCAA which led to the end of his career as a scouting director.

Ha, I'd say it was more his drafting [including botching those picks]. I doubt he went to the NCAA w/o Amaro signing off on it. He was also the guy Amaro fired to hold on to his own job for one more year, having already canned Charlie the year before.

[andyb]

Phillies seemed to have a similar situation twelve years ago with Ben Wetzler l/k/a Ben Holmes. He was the the Phillies fifth round draft pick out of Oregon State but, at least publicly, it appeared that he really loved Oregon State and his teammates there and wanted to help them back to the CWS in which they played his junior year before the Phillies drafted him and--again at least publicly--really seemed to struggle with his decision which went right down to the signing deadline.

Not really similar at all. Besides the Phillies ratting him out, he was a junior and juniors have negotiating leverage. Walters as a senior does not. Nobody is going to give him a big bonus as a senior and his career would be over if he sat out a year. He could go overseas, but again that is not ideal.

The delays on this are almost certainly all on Dawson's end. I am guessing he and the Phillies broadly agreed on a number but he is having second thoughts (and maybe BC is matching that number with NIL incentives). Or these guys are just the last ones to take their physicals or get the physical results (i.e. maybe some sort on scan forced a closer look).

HS picks always have leverage. College juniors have some leverage these days. College seniors just don't have any. Walters will get a bonus that is lower than he is worth. Makes one think that MLB should really tweak the rules to prevent these loopholes. Maybe add $1.5 million to everyone's pool and include picks 11-20 coupled with a minimum bonus for any draft pick (like $100K). So you really can't save too much money going underslot with these late picks. It is a solvable problem that does not have to change the overall finances at all.