Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2026

[andyb]

I think it is more a proxy of which teams value the metrics in Stuff+ developmentally. It has less to do with outcome than what kind of prospects they like and the ways they teach them.

Now there is a correlation between this and success, but how strong is that correlation?

[Carver]

If we place a value on these system rankings that reflects the fact that they are, for all intents and purposes, nothing but a SWAG based upon a snapshot in time, then we won't get that upset about things.

I think that we can all agree that the Phils have their work cut out for them to become one of the top farm systems in the game, but they are making strides as compared to before and it is really hard to be patient, even as we must as these things do not turn around in one season. Or even five seasons.

Data that would be more relevant - and perhaps Matt or someone else has the information at hand - how do the Phils rank on talent acquisition and player development spending as compared to the rest of the league, and how much legitimate "talent" (organizational human resources plus their operational budget) do we have in that side of the operation? I have seen things in the past but now for a few years now and am not up to date.

I am not talking about their draft pool or international FA $$, but how many scouts and talent side and player development personnel, and how is it allocated around the world compared to the teams that do this well? We know that the Phils have devoted the resources to the analytics side and are now in the top tier there, but if they simply shifted funds away from the actual baseball folks then that would be highly disturbing and incredibly counterproductive.

Grandma out...

[allentown]

I am not talking about their draft pool or international FA $$, but how many scouts and talent side and player development personnel, and how is it allocated around the world compared to the teams that do this well?

I'd certainly like to see that comparison but think there are more important issues: what is the extent of articulation between scouting and development staff -- if the scouts tout a guy for great pitch recognition, contact, and working the count to a high obp, does the development pursue those skills or does it try to turn him into a power hitter -- Arbuckle credited his success to controlling both scouting and development and keeping them pulling in the same direction on each prospect; what is the articulation at different levels of the organization -- does a prospect hear the same approach at every level; how qualified are our baseball-side staff compared to other organizations -- what is their record of success; when the Phillies have a major flub on evaluating a big bonus prospect do they take corrective action in approach and/or personnel?

It's often not a question of how much you spend but how wisely you spend it. Not a question of how many staff you have but how qualified they are. If we have great scouts, how much does management trust and act on their judgement? Do we make personnel decisions on the buddy system or on demonstrated superior performance?

[fish]

I don’t know how good or poor their analytics team is, but the eye test suggests they are probably largely ignored by Dombrowski in his personnel decisions. Especially after 2024 and the subsequent departure of Kilambi. Prior to that they were taking shots at plenty of stuff guys- Marte, Nelson, Coonrod, Bellati, Hoffman, Moore, Mercado…some they managed to squeeze a little out of, but certainly not to the degree the Rays can get out of guys. I guarantee it wasn’t the analytics department that suggested going after Railey and Arraez.

Now it just seems like their only voice in the room is with biometrics stuff with Cotham.

[andyb]

We do rank at or near the top in the NUMBER of analytics employees. We do seem to be more enamored with pitch shape and biomechanics these days but those are often analytic recommendations too. One has to think that some of the Painter shifts were based on analytics (and a hat tip to Matt for doing some in depth prospect graduation pieces).

Graduated Player Review: Andrew Painter

Graduated Player Review: Alex McFarlane

[Carver]

@allentown - I would not argue that at all - it is just that it is hard for us to know how they manage the internal workings when it comes to those relationships.

The financial commitments and personnel investments are at least potentially accessible by those with access to those sorts of things, and we know that a number of other teams have rather drastically reduced their scouting and development sides as the analytics grew. As someone that thinks that the saber-side is overblown by so many, clearly what you have noted is of far greater importance to me.

I think that teams have gone through a phase where they think that analytics can replace the core fundamentals of talent-spotting, recruiting and player development. The pendulum is only recently swinging back towards both investing in and valuing the core toolboxes, as for a while now they enjoyed playing with the newer toolbox and to an extent ignored the toys from before.

[Matt_Winkelman]

Without going too deep, but the Phillies in my opinion are very poorly aligned between acquisition and development, both in terms of what traits are valued and aligning strength with strengths. I would say talent acquisition (really draft) was too model driven under Klentak but has wildly swung the other way under Barber. They have not always invested enough in pitching and in particular spending in the area they have had success (really rounds 3 to 6 of the draft where you have McGarry, Kerkering, McFarlane, Klassen, etc). Pro acquisition on the pitching side was more aligned and that is likely because Ani was very smart and Cotham is forward thinking (the minor league pitching development largely aligns with Cotham as he oversees it and works with the dev staff in that space). Hitting is a complete mess and has always sort of been a mess, but I don't think acquisition talks to dev overall and dev doesn't really talk to dev at each level, and I don't think the data is both being listened to and I doubt the hitters are getting easily communicated concepts that will aid in their improvement.

That is just the minor league side, it is pretty clear that on the major league side the analytics side of the house has been deemphasized in player acquisition and game planning. They have talked a medium game this offseason about listening to it more, but that really requires Dombrowski changing his stripes some.

[andyb]

Sounds like you think we should have promoted Ani Kilambi to the GM job before we gave it to Fuld (maybe that was too early initially but certainly when he went to Wharton) and then Mattingly. Letting him go to an in-division rival during a period where you have clear promotion openings seems a pretty big miscalculation.

[Matt_Winkelman]

I would have, but also I don't know if that would have actually made a big difference and had him not leave because ultimately the final decision and direction is going to come from Dombrowski. Whether it was Fuld or now Preston Mattingly, the GM title in Philly is not just the second in command it is very different than a more collaborative and forward thinking front office. That does also mean that you are asking for a different thing from your GM. You aren't asking them to be an ideas man, but to be more of an actual organizer and manager who handles a lot of the day to day running of the minutia of the team.

[andyb]

From all reports Toboni has a much more collaborative process with the Nats. They have really remade their system in 12 months not only with their prospect trades but with a complete 180 in analyytics and developmental philosophy. If they ever get a new owner that will spend money they could be a dangerous opponent.

Different perspectives are good and I am generally a fan of getting players with tools and teaching them what they need to be good players - but clearly we have a problem getting everyone on the same page once we develop them. I want us to spend money to get players like Griffin Burkholder in our system. I just have zero confidence we can develop that player, especially in comparison with a Tampa or Milwaukee.

[zambonir]

Sounds like Ani should have gotten Preston's job (the one that's open now) in the first place. I've seen it said it's not an important job now. Is that because Murton really is still the boss of hitting and Cotham pitching and Mattingly still hands-on?

[allentown]

So, it seems we actually agree that Phillies development of hitters and articulation across the board from scouting/development goals to instruction across levels has been and still is a serious problem. Glad to see that Matt agrees we haven't devoted enough bonus $ to pitching an area in which we actually have success.

[fish]

Sounds like Ani should have gotten Preston's job (the one that's open now) in the first place.

When Preston was first hired I was under the impression it was to bring a cohesive system together. Even ascending to GM that still seems like his primary responsibility. I’m just not seeing it. Better than Klentak? Sure. Better than half the teams in baseball? No. Granted, ascending to that height earned Dombrowski carte Blanche.

[flyers19rw]

Preston Mattingly has been with the Phillies for five years of which only two has been as GM. It takes time to rebuild a minor league system. We all know that the LA pipeline was a mess for years. I would say that we’ve seen improvement there. State side has struggled but a part of that has been due to losing higher draft choices due to FA signings as well as being pushed down in the draft order because of cap spending. Things aren’t the greatest with the minor league system but there are some talented players coming through it at last.

[andyb]

The problem is more that we do a poor job of developing the prospects we do have, specifically the hitters.

This should have been improved or fixed within 5 years. We know we draft low and have lost/traded certain picks and prospects. We just haven't developed many hitters beyond our number one picks.

[zambonir]

Well, international has gotten better, and that's in part because they finally made a change at the top of that department in 2023, and likely decided to approach it (and spending) differently even before that. Development was a mess post-Klentak, but Mattingly got that job in 2021, continued/continues to supervise his successor, and every time they make a change they say alignment is what needs to be fixed, and then it never is.

But if you just want to find the system lacking overall, blame the guy who's been in charge of the draft since 2019, wasn't hired by this front office, and has held on to the job through what will soon be four different development directors. Clearly that's where they put the blame, not on Barber. If so Preston Mattingly doesn't get a pass for that.

[Austinfan]

Well, they seemed to have figured out pitching development, both at the ML and minor league level.
Elevated Sanchez and Luzardo, fixed Painter, developed McFarlane, Kerkering is a bit of a puzzle. More a matter of trading away too many prospects and not drafting enough.

[andyb]

We got Luzardo fully formed even if we emphasized a new pitch (that is Cotham and not development). We did a great job with Sanchez. McFarlane was still a reasonably high pick though.

But that is kind of it. It is just not a good recent record of development. Hard to say they have figured it out when there are so many holes in the bullpen and pretty uneven recent drafts.

[Carver]

Well, the reality is that we are not close enough to what goes on inside the organization to know much more than a few tidbits here and there. Some years ago, I had enough connections to be able to get some background here at times, but today it all boils down to perceptions based upon some guesswork, observations from afar and speculation.

So while I think that they have a lot of work to do when it comes to how they handle talent and player development, I also don't think that DD & Co. are nearly as bad as so many think. It is hard to believe that player development, talent acquisition and saberdudery are working so independently that they can't find their way as completely as some think. Just from observation over time, the talent side is better, analytics is far better than a decade ago for sure and player development has been making strides as well.

They have made noises about studying the Brewers and Rays so that they can learn how to have a more integrated development process, so they are not in the same state that they were in during the peak Phillies Way era where not only did they suck at most things, but they were arrogantly certain that their ways were the best (reminds me of a certain occupant of a partially destroyed White House, only they were not as malignant in their narcissism).

I would like to think that they are on a better path, and that is what I see, even as one can also see that the road ahead has plenty of room for improvements. It would be nice if we could see a bit more transparency as to some of the process behind the scenes, but that seems to be a rare thing these days.

[fish]

I would like to think that they are on a better path, and that is what I see,

A successful path should keep improving though. All we are seeing is a string of “just good enough” to be better than 2010-2020.