Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2026

[bigegypt0417]

I suppose the good news is they could add some talent if they decide this team needs to be broken up....

[zambonir]

That's kind of disturbing in a vacuum. Like, obviously they have been making win-now trades and sacrificing picks (and now first-round position) for a long time now, except without the parade to show for it like last time. And I assume the graduations, struggles and injuries also depress the number. But is the system actually any better than it was under Wolever/Amaro or Almaraz/Klentak in the end?

[Philsmania]

It's a perfect storm of "win now" trades, guys who supposedly were prospects regressing (or suffering injuries which cloud their future), Crawford graduating and us simply not being good at scouting and developing players. The cast changes--like you say from Amaro(GM)/Wolever (SD)/Jordan (FD) to MacPhail (POBO)/Klentak (GM)/Almaraz and later Barber (SD)/still Jordan and later Bonifay (FD) to now Dombrowski (POBO)/Fuld and now Mattingly (GM)/still Barber (SD)/still Bonifay and later Mattingly and now Murton (FD)--but the results just keep staying the same or now getting worse.

I don't think our farm system has been this bad since the mid-to-late '80's and early '90's (pre-Arbuckle arrival) when Giles genuinely believed that scouting and player development could be done on the cheap and/or entrusted it a bunch of incompetent cronies and went into denial when the cronies' incompetence became glaring.

Seven years into having Barber--a holdover from the MacPhail/Klentak administration--as our scouting director, it may be time to ask some serious questions. It is interesting how the Phillies have never completely cleaned house when the guy at top changed. Klentak held on to both Almaraz and Jordan from Amaro for several years and Dombrowski held on to Barber (to this day) and Bonifay (initially) from MacPhail/Klentak. The Phillies seemingly have this bassackwards way of replacing the scouting or farm director the year before replacing the POBO and GM combo instead of bringing on a whole new team at once.

[zambonir]

Seven years into having Barber--a holdover from the MacPhail/Klentak administration--as our scouting director, it may be time to ask some serious questions.

Yeah, given our GM was running development as well as who hired him, Barber would seem to be the one to take the fall. At least international does seem to be showing some signs of the change at the top which is more recent (though coming up on three years now).

DD has done a good job of holding on to the very top prospects and mostly parting with good ones from areas of depth, but then both things fall apart a little when nobody works out (and then you also wind up with guys you should have traded after all, like McGarry and Rojas).

[Philsmania]

DD has done a good job of holding on to the very top prospects and mostly parting with good ones from areas of depth....

It should be noted that it looks like we are clearly winning the O'Hoppe (3.1 total WAR for the Angels) for Marsh (10.7 total WAR for the Phillies) deal.

And maybe add Marchan to the list of should-have-traded when they still had value. IIRC, Ben Brown is the guy we traded for Robertson because we didn't want to give up McGarry (who at the time was our #3 pitching prospect behind Painter and Abel). Brown most certainly would have looked good in our bullpen this year.

[zambonir]

Phillies have been much better at targeting undervalued prospects or major leaguers (Sanchez, Marsh, Sosa) than developing their own, or signing (most) free agents.

Brown definitely a loss given it was just for a reliever. The Lorenzen trade may also still look bad, if not awful. The Estevez trade is holding up better than we might have hoped. Bader TBD. Duran, probably already worth it regardless.

[Philsmania]

Phillies have been much better at targeting undervalued prospects or major leaguers (Sanchez, Marsh, Sosa) than developing their own, or signing (most) free agents.

Good point. Our pricey free agents have been mostly good with the exception of Walker. Castellanos did have his moments. Our fill-a-hole-in-the-roster or lineup signings have been whiffs (Merrifield, Kepler, Garcia)

[allentown]

Castellanos may have had moments. For $120 million he should have given us way more good moments. His time in Philly netted us a grand total of 1.1 WAR. That's more than $100 million/WAR, plus he was a clubhouse problem last year and had to be babied by playing him every inning he was available. And, it wasn't just his awful defense. His OPS+ over his entire time in Philly was 100 -- exactly average. Let's not sugar-coat it, this was a horrendous signing and a big blot on DD's record.

Still, every GM has a clunker or two, if they bring in as many outside guys as DD has. That's a big part of the problem, probably the biggest. Overall, our scouting and prospect development efforts have been poor, as witnessed by both the paucity of help from the farm and the current ranking of the farm. I think that has been and continues to be the biggest anchor preventing the Phillies of this era from not having more WS appearances and a championship. The Dodgers are the second biggest reason.

[zambonir]

I'm comfortable saying all of DD's FA signings except Schwarber and Strahm have been disappointing (if I'm not forgetting any). And I say that thinking Turner is very, very good, but neither (it's easy to say now) the bat they needed post-Rhys nor the bat that diversifies this offense, as well as a too-big - if market value - contract).

But that also might be because most free agent signings don't work out (this year's what-might-have beens - Bichette, Bregman, Tucker - all falling short this year). Just doesn't hurt as much when it's the short-term $10 million guys.

DD went the way he did because he inherited so little. That's why it's a big bummer he hasn't built anything back either.

[andyb]

The ranking is unsurprising. With the graduations of Painter and Crawford our system was always going to rank in the 20s somewhere and the uncertainty around Miller sinks it further. I'd love Matt's opinion on this but I think all the college pitchers we drafted near the top last year are pretty mediocre in their performance and projection. Wood has been about as advertised but the rest of the top 5 (Obermueller, Bowker, Youngerman, Craig) have been pretty underwhelming as a group. Obermueller had his moments but a second round pick in low A SHOULD have those moments.

This year's international class seems better and trading for additional pool space is hopefully helping us add prospects. That is just not going to affect system rankings yet. We'd probably be ranked around 20th if we had not traded some prospects (Lee, Begolla, Caba, Tait, Mendez) but it still would have been a bit below average.

[andyb]

Castellanos may have had moments. For $120 million he should have given us way more good moments. His time in Philly netted us a grand total of 1.1 WAR. That's more than $100 million/WAR, plus he was a clubhouse problem last year and had to be babied by playing him every inning he was available. And, it wasn't just his awful defense. His OPS+ over his entire time in Philly was 100 -- exactly average. Let's not sugar-coat it, this was a horrendous signing and a big blot on DD's record.

I think we all know your opinion on this by now and we all probably agree. Time to move on and that really did not have much impact on our prospect base so not really relevant here.

[Matt_Winkelman]

I would say out of the 2025 draft, Matthew Fisher disappointing probably has the biggest impact. Obermueller and Bowker have been weird. The illness definitely set Obermueller back and it feels like his stuff has been all over the place. Bowker's fastball has been very good, his secondary pitches have been bad, he has been terrible with men on base, but is also 13th in K% among all minor league pitchers with at least 50 IP, one spot behind Wood. So I would but 2nd and 3rd round as mixed. Youngerman has been really bad, I don't really get it with Craig, but also he was signed to a bonus that was the slot of the 9th round pick (back to Fisher being the linchpin of this). Tallon has been terrible, but I see the arsenal and I get it. Walters had hype from the Phillies, but has really struggled. I actually am still bullish on Ferrara.

I think Fisher is the only guy here who would really have moved the overall needle. It happens, but it is uncommon that late 2nd and 3rd round picks immediately pop in the first 12 months in a way that shape a ranking, but it is fair to say the arrow isn't really pointing up. The ranking though comes down to Crawford and Painter graduated, Miller has fallen from a top 20 prospect to career in doubt, Nori and Escobar have been mediocre or hurt, and while Renteria and Marquez have jumped that just isn't going to change the course on their own.

[andyb]

I guess I am thinking less of Fisher as disappointing yet though I guess we all expected a little more velocity for the bonus he got. He is showing the athleticism so hoping he is just the type of guy who needs 3-4 years to put things together.

Obermueller getting sick is of course not his fault. Just not sure he'd look like a good 2nd round pick even when healthy. Pitching at Clearwater is just showing he is healthy. It is harder to judge the swing and miss stuff because he is so old for the level. Even without subscribing blame on the illness, he just does not seem that high ceiling a pick which is always disappointing to me. And collectively as a group all the picks (Fisher included I guess) are not that great. A better collective set of picks might have moved our system rank up 3-5 places.

Each player in this group might have some prospect characteristics that we like. But collectively their worth is below average for a set of picks and bonuses in the top 5 rounds. We can have 3 or 4 prospects in a draft we like (especially relative to bonus or round or slot) and still rate it a below average draft (C+ grade?).

We also start out with something like the 26th highest pool in this draft even with one bonus pick. It is no surprise they are loading up internationally where the pool variations are flatter and the trades for more space are easier.

[Matt_Winkelman]

I think that is fair, and it has been the 26th-27th pool for three drafts which sort of means that unless you are having a A/B+ draft, and subsequent development, you aren't really seeing it pull you up assuming normal graduation/attrition. I would say a year out the draft is a C+/B- and that is almost entirely Wood outperforming being the 26th pick. I think we can also all agree that being the 26th or 29th best system isn't really meaningfully changing the outlook.

[andyb]

I think we can also all agree that being the 26th or 29th best system isn't really meaningfully changing the outlook.

And in the positive vein we do rank higher if we had not traded prospects. Tait is on a lot of top 100 lists these days. Bergolla is doing a decent Luis Arraez impression and Caba's floor is still a good defensive SS. Add Lee and Mendez if they are still eligible and we'd rank 5-10 places higher even with the extreme risk in Tait's bat.

I think we have a pretty good development system in place. I just wish the draft last year was a bit better. And it sure would be nice to get something out of Nori and Burkholder.

[Squire]

The farm system/prospect pool is concerning to me because its an area where resources are more strictly restricted (draft pools, international pools). Right now the Phillies are a great major league club more because of $$ advantage and less because of a baseball competence advantage. To the extent that CBA levels the $$ playing field more it will negatively impact the Phillies more.

[andyb]

To the extent that CBA levels the $$ playing field more it will negatively impact the Phillies more.

The international spending this year is a little different at least. We started with a $6.6 million pool with the top tier of clubs just over $8 million. After trading for $1.25 million in space we are just a hair under $8 million also (and some of the top tier of clubs have traded space). So internationally we will be in the top 5-10 of spending this year. Better than 26th.

[allentown]

I think we all know your opinion on this by now and we all probably agree. Time to move on and that really did not have much impact on our prospect base so not really relevant here.

It may not be relevant to the title of this thread but it was a direct response to the post directly in front of mine, which stated that our pricey FAs have been mostly good with the exception of Walker and that Castellanos had his moments. As you know, I strongly disagree with that view and responded accordingly. Btw, Castellanos was a worse signing than Walker: he cost less and he gave us more net WAR (1.6) having 2 out of 4 mostly good years for us. He actually won 15 games for us in 2023.

[fish]

I think we have a pretty good development system in place. I just wish the draft last year was a bit better.

I think the opposite. After the second round everyone is hoping on guys with similar tool sets - what they become is a matter of development.

Bowker, Youngerman, Craig, Fisher- they were solid picks for where they were selected- they just all look the same as they did last year for the most part.

[Squire]

Yeah if you told me I could replace either the entire scouting staff or the entire development staff, I'd choose the latter.