Phillies News and Discussion 2025 Season

[zambonir]

This is the 2025 thread, VFK!

Of course I don't object to looking ahead. I do object to the idea that it's already a fait accompli how the playoffs might go. And still don't think there's any way to truly build a team that can do what the 2022 Phillies or 2023 Dbacks or Rangers did, but especially not one that is guaranteed to win a single five-game series [you can build one that gets to avoid the three-game series, and so far they have].

Of course, if we are doing this, probably want to look in the dugout too. If they don't have a better Aug/September and also flame out, is Rob's time over? And how come nobody ever wonders why the highest-paid hitting coach in baseball can't get anyone to hit breaking balls?

[VoteForKalas]

This is the 2025 thread, VFK!

Of course I don't object to looking ahead. I do object to the idea that it's already a fait accompli how the playoffs might go. And still don't think there's any way to truly build a team that can do what the 2022 Phillies or 2023 Dbacks or Rangers did, but especially not one that is guaranteed to win a single five-game series [you can build one that gets to avoid the three-game series, and so far they have].

Of course, if we are doing this, probably want to look in the dugout too. If they don't have a better Aug/September and also flame out, is Rob's time over? And how come nobody ever wonders why the highest-paid hitting coach in baseball can't get anyone to hit breaking balls?

lol, I guess I want changes to happen regardless of the results of this season. If we win the WS this season, I'll be happy beyond belief and of course some of the pressure will be off the organization.

But it should still be the front office's job to keep us competitive, especially in planning for the known downsides of the last years of Harper, Nola & Turner's contracts.

I think Rob is doing the best he can with a flawed lineup and pen. I disagree with how he uses the pen, but other than that I'm not sure what else he can do to turn lemons into lemonade each night. I put 98% of the fault with DD for the MLB roster and our ongoing issues with drafting, acquiring and developing talent for our MLB team from the farm.

[zambonir]

What you want is to be a Houston Astros fan Trade Tucker, let Bregman walk, still just as good as the Phillies.

[andyb]

But Marsh has been much better than Kepler at the plate

660 vs 674 OPS and Kepler was ahead in that stat much of the season. There really is not much difference. A little more power from Kepler (even if disappointing) and a little more speed/OBP from Marsh.

The point is that BOTH are inadequate offensively in LF. Maybe league offense is down, but they are a clear weak link in the Phillies offense along with Stott and Realmuto and it will be hard/disruptive to do anything at catcher.

[zambonir]

Well, you can call it a cherry-pick but I am writing off Marsh's April. Kepler's been the same guy all year and has also been the same guy four or the last five seasons, more of a 90 OPS+ guys, whereas Marsh is probably still a 105 like last year, if not what he was in '22 or '23 [though he was indeed that good for most of May and June].

Granted, they both have like .580 OPS in July. And they both aren't to blame for the lack of a better option from the right side [nor for the Phillies' continued misjudgment that they can hit LHP].

I don't think we really disagree on the path, which is a new LF and leave Marsh in CF. But if you can't get one and call up Crawford I stick with Marsh over Kepler in LF, unless you've traded him.

Schwarber or Harper in LF still seems like a much clearer way to upgrade the offense, whether that's the Suarez/Bohm to 1B fantasy or Naylor, O'Hearn or even Ozuna.

[VoteForKalas]

I think Houston does a very good job and I love how the Rays handle talent, but I'd like the Phillies to follow the Dodgers model. They have gone to 4 WS in the last 12 years, won 2 WS in the past 5 seasons, made the playoffs 12 years in a row, won 11 division titles in one of the best divisions in the game and still have one of the best farm systems.

The Dodgers effectively leverage both sides of the winning equation for success. The Phillies are an organization that can spend with the Dodgers if we so choose (we have not so far, but pretty close, 4th highest in MLB).

But, as we know, spending is not enough on its own in baseball.

The reason the Dodgers win is because they leverage spending tons of money with smart talent evaluation, acquisition and development investment and decision making. They spend strategically in areas they need depth or talent improvement or for generational stars like Ohtani that will provide returns to the organization way beyond the diamond.

The Dodgers have the farm system consistently producing productive players for the MLB team to allow, like you said, to move on from aging players in decline, expensive players judged not to be worth the price, but also reinforce the roster due to injuries etc. The Dodgers have suffered massive amounts of injuries the last 2 seasons that would have killed off any other organization, but they keep rolling along.

The Phillies have spent more than I expected under Middleton, but have not been able (or willing) to invest similarly in the other critical half of the winning equation and make it a priority. Until they decide to fully leverage both sides of the winning equation, we will always be behind organizations like the Dodgers.

[zambonir]

I guess I don't necessarily see it as an investment issue beyond the major league roster. The Dodgers just had a better culture to build from, and a far better PBO. Ours is going to the HOF, but not that much for anything he's done in the last 20 years, the Red Sox championship aside. I hope he's built a better front office and system, and it seems like it's light years more intelligent than the Gillick/Amaro regime, but jury's still out. And he hasn't had to be especially creative building the major league roster, which was all either inherited or paid for.

But I also think that until the Dodgers won the WS last year, you could view them as a failure. Just one championship in a fluke COVID season despite all that success. All the money and winning with little to show for it. If the Phillies had been bounced in the NLDS in both '22 and '23 we'd probably have wanted both the manager and the PBO gone [and certainly Dodgers fans have wanted that too - mostly the manager even though it is the PBO who makes the decisions they hate].

The Phillies have done the one thing that is most important - build a team that can consistently make the playoffs and compete for division titles or the 4th seed every year. We'll see if that continues.

[VoteForKalas]

The Phillies have done the one thing that is most important - build a team that can consistently make the playoffs and compete for division titles or the 4th seed every year. We'll see if that continues.

I agree with the sentiment of this statement, but "being competitive" every season it is not the most important thing IMO.

This Phillies run started in 2022 and, depending on how this season and offseason go, they may have already reached their peak and be on the decline.

Why? Because spending tons of money while not investing in the other incredibly important part of winning: making sure you have skilled, cheap, controllable talent being added to the MLB roster or used in trades to get better talent limits your ability to replenish talent, sustain the competitive window and take advantage of your rivals.

The Dodgers, as was stated, have been on a run for the last 12 seasons with little evidence that will end soon. They have won 2 WS and gotten to 4 in that span. Are they perfect? No, but they are the closest to perfect MLB has right now and one would think that model might be worth considering if one is serious about winning championships and making the Phillies one of the best organizations in the game.

[zambonir]

But you make it sound so easy. The Phillies post-Monty didn't have a "model" that said don't invest in skilled, cheap, controllable talent, they just didn't know how to acquire and develop it, and that failure was already set in stone by the time this regime took over [as far as the 2015-2017 classes], and now it's starting to look like Barber's two best first-round picks are merely modest hits.

If anything, Dombrowski specifically has not been "all-in" enough because he is trying to hang on to what little youth with high potential the system has - in some cases, it will probably turn out, for too long. But I don't see any evidence when I look at the 100-some people in the Phillies front office [where there once were 5] or the changes they've made at the Assistant GM and director levels that they aren't investing or trying to do it right, including finally making a change in international.

[Dirk41]

To add to this observation, when DD got here, everyone thought he would gut the farm.

[andyb]

The bloated payroll is also a reaction to the lack of minor league depth. Given a choice between spending prospects or money to acquire players, DD chose the financial approach. It will be interesting to see how long this continues as Schwarber and Realmuto come off the books. The only real long term commitments are to Harper and Turner and Nola. Everything else that is a large amount expires in the next few years.

If we actually had guys like Painter and Abel and Wood and Crawford filling big roles there is a path to get under the CBT after Wheeler's contract if we wanted to go that route. Lots of questions to answer before we get there of course.

[zambonir]

Some teams would try to get under the CBT again next season. That's what the Astros did, but they were only over the first threshold, and their fans are used to that team being thrifty [and developing the talent to allow them to be].

I have trouble imagining DD being creative enough to move on from both Schwarber and JT, and also have trouble imagining uncreative solutions to easily replace even just one of them. Not to mention our de facto GM wouldn't like losing either of them. Where the creativity comes into play is probably deciding which of the three younger players to move on from. If MIller and Crawford get traded it should probably be in the off-season; they can get another reliever and a RH LF bat without including either of them, and even Suarez, as a rental, doesn't necessarily get you a team's top prospect].

[Philsmania]

I have trouble imagining DD being creative enough to move on from both Schwarber and JT, and also have trouble imagining uncreative solutions to easily replace even just one of them.

I think Marchan might be OK as an everyday catcher--better than he is in a backup role to which he was probably never accustomed--at least as a bridge to Tait for a couple of years, knock on wood.

[andyb]

I think there is zero chance the Phillies go with Marchan next year as the starting catcher. Obviously he can play better and earn a share of the job, but I think it is pretty obvious the Phillies will go with a veteran and either Stubbs/Marchan depending on who they like better. A 2-year deal for Realmuto makes sense at a lower dollar value, but even absent that it is really likely they will spend at least $10-$15 million on some veteran.

There is probably a window next season of going for more offensive oriented and defensively challenged catchers as framing becomes less important with the robo ump challenge system. That type of catcher paired with Marchan might be a good mix and allow them to at least try a 1A/1B catching tandem like other clubs have attempted.

[VoteForKalas]

But you make it sound so easy. The Phillies post-Monty didn't have a "model" that said don't invest in skilled, cheap, controllable talent, they just didn't know how to acquire and develop it, and that failure was already set in stone by the time this regime took over [as far as the 2015-2017 classes], and now it's starting to look like Barber's two best first-round picks are merely modest hits.

If anything, Dombrowski specifically has not been "all-in" enough because he is trying to hang on to what little youth with high potential the system has - in some cases, it will probably turn out, for too long. But I don't see any evidence when I look at the 100-some people in the Phillies front office [where there once were 5] or the changes they've made at the Assistant GM and director levels that they aren't investing or trying to do it right, including finally making a change in international.

So, you are arguing each Phillies regime has simply been incompetent and clueless instead of not being willing to invest in our farm system to see better results? I'm not sure which is a worse indictment, flip a coin I guess.

Middleton became the controlling owner in 2016. It has been nearly a decade and we've seen little evidence the farm system has improved. Of course it is not easy to build a good system, but after 9 years one would think there might be some positive signs. Is that unrealistic? How long should we give him? 15 years? 20 years?

[zambonir]

If you're asking me to argue Middleton is a good owner, I decline!

He hired MacPhail. He hired Girardi. It's mostly luck that DD has worked out so well [nobody else wanted the job, he was MacPhail's recommendation, and only became available because Nashville fell through] and even better luck that Thomson has. DD's biggest strength seems to be convincing the owner to do things.

Klentak inherited a wreck and left an even worse wreck in many respects. Many of the problems really do stem from not taking advantage of their window to spend more money and draft better from 2015-2018. And while DD hasn't mortgaged the system, his FA signings have cost them plenty of draft picks.

But I still feel like this is probably the best Phillies front office of the past 40 years, and obviously also the second-best best Phillies era of that period. We expect more/better now, which is why we're also so much quickly to be frustrated I think.

[allentown]

Well, you can call it a cherry-pick but I am writing off Marsh's April

.

if you're playing that game, then you might as well play bookends and also disregard his July stats, which are bad, although not as horrible as April.

The Phillies have spent more than enough under Middleton. The problem is the farm: assessing and signing the raw talent and then the development process. Grow your own is really about money, its about organizational competence.

[zambonir]

I just mean compared to Kepler if we have to pick between them as a LF. He put together 6-8 weeks of really solid hitting, Kepler hasn't been consistent at all, and is just as bad in July [he was much better in April of course because every player in baseball was probably better than Marsh in April].

[Austinfan]

Money helps, but they haven't scrimped on facilities or on hiring staff.
But if you're incompetent, all more money does is help you make more expensive mistakes (like our LA signings).

[allentown]

But I still feel like this is probably the best Phillies front office of the past 40 years, and obviously also the second-best best Phillies era of that period. We expect more/better now, which is why we're also so much quickly to be frustrated I think.

First, I think Middleton is the sort of owner whom the fans of most franchises can only dream of having. HE SPENDS ENOUGH TO WIN. The Giles era was a big enough swathe of my years as a Phillies fan that the importance of this willingness to spend is branded upon my brain. Second, he is not a particularly meddlesome owner. He did push McPhail to spend, but McPhail was endlessly slow and conservative. He also has supported the farm.

I agree that the current front office is the best we've had in quite a while, although we've had some potential good GMs who just got zip support from ownership. DD's major FA signings have been good players, although the contract terms are (and probably needed to be to make the signing) too long.

I think this past off-season was particularly bad. Not much money, but wasted on gambles that failed, rather than cleanly solving at least one of our holes.