Phillies News and Discussion 2025 Season

[dicemen99]

Bohm out with a fractured rib

Phillies notes: Alec Bohm’s injury impact, Kyle Schwarber’s slam, No. 5 spot in...

I didn't get to watch the game last night [nor read the thread] so just catching up on this. Happened in San Diego. I guess the delayed timing of the DL stint doesn't matter, he's gonna need more than 10 days.

How about we use this as an excuse to grab Suarez, jettison Kepler, and do some kind of combination of Bohm-Harper-Schwarber at DH-1B-LF (obviously no Bohm in LF)?

Lineup of:
Turner
Schwarber
Suarez
Harper
Castellanos
Bohm
Realmuto
Marsh/Sosa
Stott/Rojas

Should sure shore some stuff up (alliterative intended). Bohm will obviously pout about it, but he's on his way out anyway.

[zambonir]

Yeah as much as Bohm has gotten his game back to a baseline this season he was definitely part of the pre All-Star offensive swoon.

Alec Bohm is hitting .225 in his last 20 games with a .602 OPS
Trea Turner is still leading the National League in hits, but has cooled off a bit. In his last 24 games, Turner is 23-for-100 (.230) and has just six extra base hits. His OPS in that time is a paltry .591.
Nick Castellanos is hitting .235 in his last 30 games with a with a .737 OPS
Max Kepler went 0-for-4 Friday and his full seasons slash line is an ugly .207/.294/.366 for a .660 OPS.
Bryson Stott is just 48-for-231 (.208) in his last 66 games and was pinch hit for to lead off the seventh inning Friday with Edmundo Sosa.

[link below]

For sure Suarez would be a much better addition than most of the available RHB, though if you're willing to play Harper and Schwarber in LF there are also lower trade-cost 1B/DH types available. You may as well just throw Bohm into a trade for a reliever [or an accompanying trade] if you really do get Suarez though. At that point you can ditch Kepler and give Crawford a look.

Or, Taylor Ward seems be auditioning. Still not sure I buy him as an everyday player but he can certainly outhit Kepler every day at this point.

Who is Bryce Harper reminding that he's 'one of the best players in baseball?' |...

[dicemen99]

Good point. I'd be happy to just jettison Bohm if we got Suarez - both are on their way out from their current teams and Suarez would be a huge upgrade over Bohm both on the field and in the clubhouse.

[andyb]

They really should have traded Bohm last winter. I suspect the offers did not look that great because most other teams saw last year as a peak and not a sign of repeatable performance. He'll still be tradeable this offseason but the Phillies probably will have to equalize the money in any deal. It really looks like Otto Kemp could be a 700-750 OPS 3B with below average defense now and that is what we are getting with Bohm. They should really have set out last winter to do a Sosa/Clemens platoon there and trade Bohm for some bullpen help with control.

I do keep repeating that Kepler is not the problem that has Crawford as the solution. Crawford is probably not going to improve on him this season. The Kepler question is much more whether we trade for a better offensive solution in LF and Bohm being out puts more pressure on that solution being right-handed.

[dicemen99]

The solution for Crawford is trading Marsh. He's still got some trade value, probably more so than Bohm.

Just trade both the buddies, bring up Crawford, grab Suarez and a couple of relievers. Getting Suarez would make me less worried about having Kepler as the short side of a platoon.

[zambonir]

The issue is more that Crawford might not be better than Marsh this season. Nor Kepler. Nor Rojas, who he can't directly replace either.

But if you make an offensive upgrade at 3B I think you can just cut Kepler loose and give Crawford a try in CF with Marsh back in LF. That's a better team than no Marsh and keeping Kepler. I suppose if they trade for a RHB OF they could platoon him with Marsh in LF and still give Crawford a look. That puts Kemp back in AAA once Bohm returns though.

They are certainly talking like they plan to take a bigger swing, and that is also what's been reported as far as anyone but Painter being available. So there might not actually be a Crawford to call up.

[dicemen99]

If Crawford is equal to Marsh, then you're fine. Use Marsh to acquire something - he has value - and keep Crawford in your organization.

Marsh is hitting for no power. That makes me think we will be more than fine subbing Crawford for him.

[zambonir]

It would be the most creative solution but you can get a lot more in return for Marsh in the off-season simply because more players will be available. I would be reluctant to trade him for a rental or a closer and then suddenly realize you still have holes in both CF and LF next year while Crawford struggles.

Seems like they would also run the risk of subtracting as much as they add. Suarez, no Bohm, Kepler/Kemp, Crawford/Rojas is not a net gain to me I don't think. That group with Marsh instead of Kepler is.

They can probably get Suarez without trading MIller or Crawford since he's a rental, but they also might have to outbid the Yankees and several other teams. If you're the DBacks would you rather have Marsh or Crawford?

[allentown]

If Crawford is equal to Marsh, then you're fine.

Crawford would be our CF. Marsh should not be a CF. I don't know what the deal is with Marsh this season. This is only his age 27 season, but after having been a 3 WAR/yr player for us, with a plus OPS+ for the Phillies in his first 2.3 years with the team, this season he is negative WAR. It feels like trading him now would be selling low, but haven't seen an explanation for his 2025 collapse, so just don't know for sure. Also, we don't know how Crawford will hit against MLB pitching and fielding. He probably will have a plus first time around the league impact initially. I worry more about the opposition catching up to him in the playoffs, if he isn't fully ready for MLB. AAA numbers often see a big discount in transitioning to MLB. If Crawford is defensively ready to play CF in Philly and almost ready offensively, then I'm guessing he is brought up and a lot of guys are competing for LF time and Rojas is in Allentown. I think the Marsh of July 2024 yields a good trade return. Not clear what the ccurrent version might yield. In terms of trade value, Marsh arrow down, compared to early July and Abel arrow up. Verdict on Abel as a member of the rotation for an MLB contender remains up in the air. Someone will certainly be willing to take a bit of a risk on him. Probably on Marsh, as well.

[zambonir]

Marsh was just so godforsakenly awful before he went on the DL that he hasn't been able to rebuild his WAR. Wasn't it something like -1.5? It's now -0.4. He's been hitting, unfortunately the fact that he's only at best a neutral CF means he still ends up as 1.5-2.0 WAR guy on even a better full season, vs 3.0 WAR in LF. But neither Crawford nor Rojas would necessarily be better than that due to lesser offense.

Just not sure Crawford's AAA numbers translate to MLB this year anymore than Kemp's, or Wilson's last year. Or, if that argument is a little specious because Crawford is a legit bigger talent/prospect, Jac Caglianone.

I don't think you'd be selling low on Marsh in general, his strong suits are all still there. You'd be selling low in a market with fewer buyers though, vs. the off-season.

Bohm, if you really had a replacement for him, I'd settle for getting what the Orioles got for Austin Hays. Including literally.

[Dirk41]

I've wanted Jo Adell for a long time. He plays well here and would be a great add

[flyers19rw]

Jorge Soler has been around the leagues for a while and been serviceable. What would it take to get him out of LAA?

[Austinfan]

Don't think this team is good enough to go "all in," I don't see any addition that can salvage this season if their own players can't step up. It's not like they're a really good team with one glaring hole, they're a mediocre team with a few bright spots.

The real question is whether the problem is scouting, coaching or both.
Bohm, Stott, Marsh, Rojas all falling short, Kepler following Merrifeld as a complete waste of money, and so on.
How can Luzardo throw 98 and have the worst FB in the majors?
Why are all our relievers coming up short this season?

Basically this team is Wheeler, Suarez and Sanchez with Turner, Schwarber and Harper.
While it's nice they bought most of the right expensive toys, you can't buy enough to build a championship squad.
Some real self=analysis is required, not that I expect 3-4 WAR seasons out of the secondary guys, but a few 2-3 WAR seasons would be nice, instead of barely above replacement (and costly in the case of Walker, Castellanos, Kepler, Romano).

[zambonir]

I'm starting to come around to this POV. The core of this team is never going to be better than it is now [and is worse than it was], but the non-core younger players plus Kepler haven't shown any improvement. As disappointing as Casty is relative to his salary and JT is relative to his past,they're not the problem either. And you can't swap out 33% of the roster. Then you add in the double-whammy of Alvarado and Romano.

But, they're still a good team. The fact that they are overly reliant on starting pitching doesn't make them mediocre because the pitchers are on the team too. Anything can still happen in the playoffs. They just might not be good enough to put all the chips in the pile. Odds are they will still take the same middle ground approach they have the past few years unless just the right thing comes along. With pitching and a few hot bats they can get to the NLCS just as they have two other teams without really having a better line-up than this one [remember how bad Nick was in '22? And then how good in the '23 NLDS?]. Or they could go out early again. Pitching should still get them out of the WC round if they have to play in it.

[andyb]

Marsh is really good platooning and playing LF. Make him full time in CF he is less good. Make him a full time LF then he is also very average offensively. His really good WAR was really built on him playing mostly in favorable situations.

Crawford would likely not be better this year. Now next year if they think he could be ready and could handle CF then I totally want to give him a shot with the comp pick potentially as a bonus.

Phillies would still need a LF in that situation of course and the question of whether Marsh delivers enough offense would still be real.

[zambonir]

But is he really that lacking in LF with offense down so much? I think most corner OFs in MLB look more like Castellanos than Tucker [or they look like Schwarbs and can't field]. Since coming off the DL Marsh is actually out-hitting some of the LFs we might otherwise be thrilled to trade for, like Duran or Ward or Kwan. Assuming he can get back to a 110-115 OPS+ in a full season next year that matches or exceeds all those guys, and might be hard to beat unless you're actually getting Tucker.

[andyb]

But is he really that lacking in LF with offense down so much?

One could ask the same question of Kepler though. The real question is whether moves would make the Phillies better and Crawford at this time may not.

[allentown]

Marsh is really good platooning and playing LF. Make him full time in CF he is less good. Make him a full time LF then he is also very average offensively. His really good WAR was really built on him playing mostly in favorable situations

That's the trick of winning: having players who can excel when put in favorable situations, recognizing what players can't do and keeping them out of those situations as much as possible. Players who don't have situations in which they do well don't belong on the team. It's harder now with teams carrying more pitchers, although that's almost a baseball fetish today with few teams making much use of the 13th pitcher, but the 1993 Phillies thrived on their OF platoons. Marsh simply isn0't a CF. He's a plus LF. There is still something off with him this season. Yes, he started bad and then had a very good month, but July has been a very bad month thus far. He's never hit LHP, but this year his numbers against RHP aren't good. Castellanos is hitting RHP better than Marsh is.

The other big problem is Kepler. He was a very bad signing for, I think it was $10 million. He is negative WAR with an OPS+ of only 81. He was a stupid signing, I assume based upon the hope he would rebound off a poor 2024 season and approach what he did in 2023. But -- this is his age 32 season and 2023 was a career-year outlier. His OPS+ was 92 in 2022 and 98 in 2021. He was in steep decline from his age 26 great year in 2019. With the team budget-strapped, it was a steep overpay for mediocrity, or worse.. He could have built a good pen with that $10 million. The common GM sin of trying to solve too many problems with too little $ and instead solving none.

[zambonir]

But is he really that lacking in LF with offense down so much?

One could ask the same question of Kepler though.

But Marsh has been much better than Kepler at the plate, and is the same or better in LF defensively, and is also a guy we can keep for two more years. He has been slumping again more recently but still had an .857 + OPS and .330 batting average from the day he went off the IL until June 26, and has pushed his overall OPS against RHP to 30-40 points higher than Kepler's.

I'm not in the camp that says Crawford is any kind of answer but a Marsh/Crawford/Casty OF - or a Marsh/Rojas/Casty OF for that matter - is probably a better OF even in a vacuum, and definitely is if you got Suarez or a RH platoon LF bat.

[VoteForKalas]

We're locked in with:

Harper, Turner and Casty in the lineup

Wheeler, Nola, Sanchez and Walker in the rotation

Kerkering, Banks Arb eligible and Alvarado & Strahm on club options for 2026 in the pen

That payroll is roughly $179M for the above 11 players

I would do everything possible to trade Casty and Walker this offseason even if you need to pay some of the salary. You'd still save some money and free up roster spots. I realize it would be very hard to do, but they need to go for this team to have the best chance to build a better roster and keep the competitive window from shutting pretty quickly.

I think you have to resign Schwarber, hopefully for 3 years max. You could make a similar argument with Realmuto too since they have no C ready to step in, but I worry a lot more about JT's regression than I do Schwarber. I think a Marchan/Stubbs combo may be necessary since we have so much money already committed and will likely need to spend more at other positions.

Everything else is up for grabs: do you keep Luzardo for his Arb 4 year? Can you resign Suarez? Do you give Romano another 1 yr shot? Would he ever agree to that? 2B with Stott, 3B with Bohm, LF with Marsh, CF with Rojas/Crawford and several spots in the pen. A lot of decision points, but also opportunities if savvy GM moves are made. It is going to be a very interesting offseason.