Phillies News and Discussion 2025 (Part 2)

[julio]

Is Walker Buhler for sure starting for the Phillies tomorrow?

Well, I don't know.

I do note that the Lehigh Valley starter for tomorrow is still listed as "TBD," even though they've long since announced the Saturday and Sunday starters. I would guess this is because Buehler will get the AAA start if he's not promoted to Philly... which kind of implies that the decision has not been finalized.

[zambonir]

They're not trying to win this game at all costs, with a 10-game lead and a comfy cushion over LA. Just get rest for the more important starting pitchers.

I don't think there is any doubt Buehler is starting. That he isn't necessarily better than Rangel (or any of the horror-show sixth starters we had last year enroute to winning 95 games) isn't the point, the point is the ghost of a chance that they can find the guy who pitched in the World Series last year.

Whatever roster move they make for it also irrelevant to the team's success. I think Mayza is locked in as a possible LH reliever to be elevated in Alvarado's absence (never mind that he's already been better). So yeah they either option Lazar or DFA Trivino, who seems unlikely to refuse an outright given he's local and would have no chance of a better situation (I.e. the longshot of being on a playoff roster) anywhere but here.

[zambonir]

The Phillies did not recruit this guy to bury him in the minors. Promises were made. Not that his spot on the playoff roster is guaranteed, but he can't have a shot at that if they don't let him pitch in the bigs to begin with.

The Phillies used a group effort to bring Walker Buehler into the fold

> Buehler, 31, said Thursday that he also based his decision on the potential role he would have with a new club along with the competitiveness of the team. The Phillies, who plan to use Buehler as the sixth member of their rotation, checked both of those boxes.

Ironically he'll be going against Lorenzen.

Also Thomson says Painter might go to Clearwater to be on the taxi squad just in case. Typically only guys on the 40 make that (though I think Kingery has done it in his post-40 time). Obviously he'd have to be put on it if they got to the point where they wanted to use him, which is still unlikely.

[Matt_Winkelman]

Painter is Rule 5 eligible so he would need the 40 man spot anyway. It would take a bunch of things going wrong to get to that point

[zambonir]

Oh I know, it would just be a couple of months early. It seems a little odd they'd really want to keep him on a routine that could lead to game availability but I guess for a bullpen role it wouldn't be a much throwing. And probably no harm in letting him be part of that crew (which will surely include Jordan Romano and probably Lazar too).

[David_Criss]

Alvarado to the IL for Buehler. (Manning DFAed). So there is an extra opening on the 40-man. Is this dumping Alvarado early to give Mayza a few mo0re opportunities? Alvarado hasn't been great since he came back.
With this trip to the IL his season and I am guessing possibly his Phillies tenure has come to an end.

[zambonir]

It certainly feels like a suspicious move. He wasn't pitching great and he can't really be part of the rhythm of the bullpen heading into the playoffs so this let them keep Lazar or Trivino up. But he's still on the 40. Buehler takes Manning's spot and then replaces Jose on the 26. But now the also have the ability to move Jose to the 60 if they need to.

And I think they probably still pick up his option. You're not going to get a similar pitcher in free agency for any cheaper ($8.5 million). Unless, of course, they think the first half of this season really was a PED illusion, since he wasn't great last year either.

[zambonir]

> “Our plan now,” Thomson said, “is just get him ready for next year.”

José Alvarado suffers strained forearm, ending his suspension-shortened season...

But even next season is up in the air.

Alvarado has a $9 million club option for next season. The Phillies have until a few days after the World Series to pick up the option or buy out Alvarado for $500,000.

“I think it’s something to talk about, sure,” Thomson said.

[Austinfan]

I'll bet they don't pick it up.
With a true closer on board, they have to be convinced he brings more than Strahm and Banks to pay that money.
Clear Alvarado, Kepler and Romano and they have a little breathing space next season.

Guy to watch rest of the way is Kemp, since he returned after a month in Lehigh, he's hitting like he did in AAA, with real power - maybe he was too tentative in his first go round and realized that wasn't who he was as a hitter.

If you bring back Kemp and Sosa, with MIller looking comfortable in AAA (i.e. he'll start there in 2026 but will be a viable call-up at some point), Bohm is a good bet to be moved (Stott gives you more flexibility and has a higher upside).

[zambonir]

They might not. They might even be better off bringing back Robertson, or just finding another RH reliever. But there is still a world where the best version of Alvarado is better than Strahm (who is showing signs of wear) and Banks, as well as Kerkering. Or where the open market still costs them more than Alvarado would unless they go for another Banks or Joe Ross type.

But this minor injury could also foreshadow Alvarado spending half of next year on the IL. Wouldn't be the first time.

Moving Bohm makes the most sense but Kemp and Sosa (or Wilson) can't platoon, and Miller is also a RHB. They'd have to sign some kind of veteran LH bench guy to play with Kemp. Sosa probably stays in his current role.

[julio]

But this minor injury could also foreshadow Alvarado spending half of next year on the IL.

There's also a non-zero risk that Alvarado, in order to promote healing, might resort to chemical assistance in the early off-season... and risk failing another drug test at some point. He has a track record now.

[zambonir]

Well, if that's a concern he's too dumb to have his option picked up, especially since the second offense is a full season.

But I really don't think that's a big concern. The Phillies have history here. It's not like they cut ties with Freddy Galvis after his first failed test (and they even brought him back years later). And when Chooch got suspended that was actually his second offense (since there was no punishment for first offenses for that category of drugs). I don't even think he and the teams pursued a medical exemption subsequently. They also signed Marlon Byrd with a first offense hanging over him (and he eventually did have a second, much later).

JC Romero arguably was never as good after his 2009 suspension (which was for using in 2008). But that still might be the variability of relief pitching more than his baseline ability. Bastardo another one.

Kevin Frandsen was also suspended as a minor leaguer. Phillies actually had a ton of guys who were!

[julio]

Well, if that's a concern he's too dumb to have his option picked up, especially since the second offense is a full season.

He's a professional baseball player. He's a young male. Foolish choices, and a sense of invulnerability... more or less come with the territory? (Yes, I too was a young male once. Been there... done that. Not drugs, but other foolish choices? Risk taking? Umm...)

[zambonir]

He's not so young anymore though, by baseball standards (which would be another reason to use!). I think most guys (clearly not at all) learn their lesson after the first offense though, whether that lesson is "don't cheat" or "don't take anything you haven't run by your trainer."

At the same time I think 95% of pro athletes are still putting things in their body no normal person would otherwise choose to, whether that's supplements or, shall we say, unique dietary choices. Far fewer players are getting suspended compared to 10 or 20 years ago; is that because they've gotten smarter about not doing it or figured out other ways to do it?

[julio]

I think most guys (clearly not at all) learn their lesson after the first offense though, whether that lesson is "don't cheat" or "don't take anything you haven't run by your trainer."

Trainers can screw up, too.

At the same time I think 95% of pro athletes are still putting things in their body no normal person would otherwise choose to, whether that's supplements or, shall we say, unique dietary choices. Far fewer players are getting suspended compared to 10 or 20 years ago; is that because they've gotten smarter about not doing it or figured out other ways to do it?

The latter, I suspect. But tests also change, get more sensitive, etc.

Big money corrupts. This is not new, not revelatory.

[allentown]

Alvarado is at an age where it is very fair to ask if he can stay healthy and pitch effectively without cheating. The answer is likely that he can't. For $9 million, he's not worth the risk.

[zambonir]

They can, but in Jose's case it sounds like he really did go home and take something without checking, which was also Freddy's excuse. Unfortunately the language and culture barrier is a factor too. I think only two or three of the last 20 major leaguers to be suspended, over the past six or seven years, were not from a Latin American country.

We'll see what the Phillies really think about it all when the time comes. It would be no riskier/dumber for them to bet $8.5 million on a 31 year-old reliever coming off a PED suspension than it was to bet on Romano and Robertson (or even Strahm next season at 34 years old and just one million less than Jose's option).

[zambonir]

Well I guess they clinched the wild card first after all?

https://x.com/Phillies/status/1967367796163260734?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

[zambonir]

Poll of 20 execs, agents and scouts. Average prediction for Schwarbs roughly four years $120 million with a range of 4/100 up to 4/160 if you take out three outliers on both sides (the lowest is 4/72; the highest 7/245). One assume the agents go high (one agent predicted five year to lower AAV.

How much will Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber get paid this winter? MLB insiders...

[Callison]

Wondering why Nola wasn't pulled when he started to melt, maybe Rob wanted to see him make in-game corrections when things aren't going right. Last time for that. Only cost one game.

Lazar showing he's not ready.

Looking forward to LAD games all season, but the coming series won't be all it could have been with Turner in the lineup. So it's gonna be just the LAD against most of the Phils. Like the Yanks series when the Yanks were w/o Judge, the Phils were only playing most of the Yanks.