Phillies 2026 Spring Training Discussion

andyb 2026-02-18 23:29:12 UTC #81

Doing a bad job drafting and developing now is a very different question than the philosophies 20 years ago (or further back). You know that. We simply do not employ those philosophies now or anything close to that.

We were talking about Bryce Harper's hitting philosophy and whether he needed protection in the lineup. Somehow you get off on a tangent where you think Bill Dancy is still teaching hitting in this organization. That time is long gone.

phillychuck 2026-02-18 23:37:10 UTC #82

I agree with Allentown’s take on this. This organization is still taking minor leaguers and trying to make good contact hitters who are selective into 20 HR “power" hitters with uppercut swings. They may be different people, but they still believe in expanding the zone and increasing launch angle. It’s couched in analytic terms, but it’s the same BS. Go to CLW and hang around the minor league complex and you will hear the hitting coaches talking about expanding the zone with runners on base and optimizing launch angle to pretty much all the hitters, even the 5’10”, 160 lb shortstops.

fish 2026-02-19 01:12:03 UTC #83

I would factor in some staleness to repeatedly running it back with the same core.

Austinfan 2026-02-19 02:06:09 UTC #84

Garcia may bounce back a little, but he's on the downward slope, as is JT - not expect much.
Marsh is a solid platoon hitter, but needs a RH bat.
Bohm had shoulder issues, but even if he bounces back, it'll be as a line drive (10-15 HR, 40 2B) hitter. He's not selective so no .350 OPB, and hard to reach .450 SA.
Stott is a puzzle, on paper he should be a good hitter, good discipline, bat control, but one season he can't hit FBs, next season pounds them, then regresses again.

So basically it comes down to Crawford drawing walks, bunts, hard hit GB and line drives and hitting .300 with .350+ OPB, 50 SB and forcing them to move him to leadoff second half of season. Then top of lineup is excellent.
Kemp has to just hit LH pitching to give them a solid LF platoon.
I think Miller is more 2027 unless he explodes in AAA ball.
Same with Rincones, who'd have to tear it up to force a partial platoon with Garcia.

phillychuck 2026-02-19 02:18:52 UTC #85

The success of this team will depend on the pitching--health and consistency. Wheeler, of course, is the big wild card. If he’s back healthy by June, this team will be fine...enough offense and pitching-driven.

allentown 2026-02-19 03:53:37 UTC #86

Yes, if Wheeler is back as Wheeler by mid-season and more rested for playoffs, that should be fine. Dodgers did great with that this past season, although their lineup is better. For the start of season, it is vital that we have something closely resembling the old Nola and that Painter get going by May.

andyb 2026-02-19 14:36:51 UTC #87

This is not really looking at the same farm system. First, we don't really have lots of 5;10", 160 pound shortstops. Just about everyone is bigger these days. Yes we are teaching a certain analytical swing to add more power, but that is because power is more valuable. We don't really have these legions of selective hitters that we are teaching to be less selective. Often a hitter in the lower minors is drawing walks because of pitchers that can't throw strikes. Their walks decline in upper levels because the pitchers are better. And they need some power to increase their walks against better hitters. That will be a key Crawford element as he will not draw many walks without a bit more power.

Nobody really talks expanding the zone as well. They are talking about getting a good pitch to hit. And also putting a good swing on that pitch which requires an aggressive approach. Try waiting on a 98 mph fastball to see if it is a strike. Only the best hitters can do that. Most hitters pick their spots in the count to get a good swing in. That is what Bryce Harper does all the time. You try to identify the pitch and a zone. If you think fastball inside then you can put on a swing that can do damage to that fastball even if it is a little off the plate. With two strikes one should change their approach and protect the plate even if it means swinging at balls off the plate a bit.

We just are not teaching the same way as we did 20 and 40 years ago. Some things of course are similar. Hitting is always a mix of patience and aggression. And it's harder now with everyone throwing 98 instead of 88.

The philosophy is less the issue than the scouting and drafting. Johnny Almaraz was pretty much a disaster (Randolph,, Moniak, Haseley were his first top picks before Bohm). Barber has had a bit more success though not a lot of high picks. Derrick Chung seems to be getting better high end international talent to sign than Sal did though we are probably 5 years away from evaluating his success rate.

Considering trades and lost picks and where we have been drafting the system is doing OK. We are in the bottom 5 in resources but usually closer to the 15-22 range in the rankings. That is not awful. We still trade prospects too (Tait and Klassen and Lee are all top 200 prospects traded in recent years). We are better at developing pitching than hitting but that does not mean our hitting instruction is anywhere near as bad as you portray.

phillychuck 2026-02-19 15:43:10 UTC #88

The bottom line to me is that the hitting coaches are still advocating bad strategies like "expand the zone with runners on base”. They should be honing hitters' swings to enable them to get the barrel on the ball regardless of launch angle. I go the minor league games and to the complex at CLW almost every year, and I still hear that trash. It shouldn’t be "be patient until you get a good pitch to hit," it should be “be patient, period., don’t swing out of the zone.” Hitting coaches do not acknowledge the value of walks--it’s like they never read moneyball. The best offensive teams over the last 20 years have been the most patient teams generally, not the most aggressive, yet hitting coaches for the Phillies emphasize aggressiveness and launch angle.

Even for the relatively tiny middle infielders we sometimes sign...

You can learn to be more selective with what you swing at, even with 98 mph fastballs. You can see that with players as they age--they almost always get more selective...it’s a skill that can be acquired.

We have, unfortunately, an organization that hasn’t developed a top hitting prospect in over a decade. I think the over-emphasis on aggressiveness and the lack of coaching for selectivity is much of the problem.

Philsmania 2026-02-19 16:20:18 UTC #89

andyb:

phillychuck:

I agree with Allentown’s take on this. This organization is still taking minor leaguers and trying to make good contact hitters who are selective into 20 HR “power" hitters with uppercut swings. They may be different people, but they still believe in expanding the zone and increasing launch angle. It’s couched in analytic terms, but it’s the same BS. Go to CLW and hang around the minor league complex and you will hear the hitting coaches talking about expanding the zone with runners on base and optimizing launch angle to pretty much all the hitters, even the 5’10”, 160 lb shortstops.
The philosophy is less the issue than the scouting and drafting. Johnny Almaraz was pretty much a disaster (Randolph,, Moniak, Haseley were his first top picks before Bohm). Barber has had a bit more success though not a lot of high picks. Derrick Chung seems to be getting better high end international talent to sign than Sal did though we are probably 5 years away from evaluating his success rate.

Considering trades and lost picks and where we have been drafting the system is doing OK. We are in the bottom 5 in resources but usually closer to the 15-22 range in the rankings. That is not awful. We still trade prospects too (Tait and Klassen and Lee are all top 200 prospects traded in recent years). We are better at developing pitching than hitting but that does not mean our hitting instruction is anywhere near as bad as you portray.

The reason why we've had to largely build a team around free agents (Wheeler, Harper, Schwarber, Casty, Turner) and guys who we trade some of our few prospects to get (Realmuto, Sanchez, Marsh) is because the Klentak regime failed to adequately rebuild the farm and why the whole rebuild started after 2015 darned near failed if not for a massive infusion of money spent on the ML roster. A franchise in a smaller market with a more shallow-pocketed owner may well have just blown it all up and started over again after 2020. Nola, Hoskins, Bohm and Stott have been the only homegrown regular faces in this current run of success. A stark contrast to the previous golden age which was centered on homegrown guys (Burrell, Rollins, Utley, Howard, Hamels, Myers, Ruiz).

As much as I rag on the Phillies pharm system, yes, despite having poor drafting position and less resources to play with, they've managed to establish a middle-tier pharm system which may be a signal the guys they have now may know what they are doing (though perhaps not like the Dodgers who manage to have an elite farm system despite finishing near the top of MLB every year).

andyb 2026-02-19 16:31:40 UTC #90

We are just not teaching hitters to expand the zone like you say. Bryce Harper did expand the zone too much last year and he blames the lack of protection in the batting order. This just has nothing to do with how the Phillies teach hitting. We recognize plate discipline a lot. Teaching hitters how to get a good pitch to hit is not teaching them to expand the zone the way you imply.

With Bryce I was worried that decreasing bat speed might have more to do with it than the lack of protection. Hopefully that is from injury issues that are now over and he recovers a bit. It was pretty apparent to me that he was getting beat more on good fastballs in the zone, especially compared to Schwarber who is not showing any signs of age yet.

phillychuck 2026-02-19 16:49:16 UTC #91

Andy, I know we still teach that because I’ve personally heard our coaches telling our minor leaguers to do that (or had minor leaguers tell me about it), both in CLW in the spring and in Reading and LV (when I’m close enough to listen).

andyb 2026-02-19 17:01:43 UTC #92

I'll take your word for it but I still think you are misinterpreting instructions designed to teach hitters how to get a good pitch to hit (and not really expand the zone). There are just situations where it is good to be aggressive and if that means expanding the zone a bit it is OK.

As I said, the bigger problem is we just have not been signing and drafting good hitters. Our Latin American hitters the last few years have been pretty bad and since we have stopped keeping overage hitters because of the roster limits it shows. FCL and DSL hitting last year was just flat out bad.

fish 2026-02-19 18:34:42 UTC #93

I think you are probably right, and given the struggles to develop any other hitter than a first round pick- players in the system are probably having the same discussion trying to figure out what they think the org wants them to do lol.

Austinfan 2026-02-19 19:39:01 UTC #94

You can be disciplined and aggressive.

First key is learn what pitches you can't handle, Casty drove me crazy b/c everyone knew he couldn't hit low breaking pitches yet he'd still chase them instead of spitting on them, if it's a strike, OK, you weren't going to hit it anyway, but most of the time it's a ball and you're then ahead in the count.

Second key is know you sweet spots, and with less than two strikes, look for pitches in those areas, because you'll hit tem at a much higher rate than chasing pitches you don't hit well. So if you're best at low fastballs, don't chase high fastballs and so on.

It's not rocket science, with the tools they have today, teaching hitters to both know their strength and weaknesses and then learn to see different pitches and how they move and whether they'll be strikes. With programable pitching machines, electronic strike zones and video, they should have hitters not just swing, but look at hundreds of pitches and get a feel for the strike zone and how pitches move.

julio 2026-02-19 20:48:07 UTC #95

It looks like we're in the realm of belief now. Observational data that contradicts a previously held opinion is simply rejected (or in this case, rationalized as being different than what was actually observed).

zambonir 2026-02-19 23:57:45 UTC #96

I don't think that observational data is a large enough sample, nor more than anecdote, in terms of what the Phillies' entire hitting program and philosophy is. And also, we don't even know if that philosophy is wrong. We know they haven't had a lot of success developing hitters but we're talking about 2 or 3 different minor league development and hitting regimes as well as multiple major league hitting coaches just in the last 10 years. We know Kevin Long preaches selectivity and has coached Harper, Turner and Schwarber for a long time. We know he wanted Nick to be more selective. I don't think this regime undervalues walks the way Amaro did, nor do I think they (and most of the league) is wrong to value power. Bad as the Phillies can be at this stuff, I don't think we have a bunch of perfect minor league hitters who get ruined by them. There are so many variables, even if you assume they were all good signings a great base of talent to begin with.

phillychuck 2026-02-20 13:07:08 UTC #97

You’re right, z, it’s not a boatload of data, but it’s consistent over levels and times. I listen to and watch both Reading and Lehigh Valley, especially the post game interviews, and I have access to seats right next to both dugouts. I hear the coaches talking to the hitters during BP amnd/or during the games. Maybe 2 or three times I’ve heard them talking about expanding the zone, and maybe a dozen times I’ve heard our hitters in interviews talking about it. That’s over the last 5 years or so, so it does overlap with two staffs. I think it is at least s factor in our failure to develop hitters, the coaches don’t preach patience as an absolute positive, just as a way to get “your pitch”. Hitters naturally want to hit and swing, they have to work to not swing over aggressively. My opinion, supported by limited observation...

zambonir 2026-02-20 15:18:38 UTC #98

Seems like Strahm won the battle but lost the war. Keller's gonna mostly have the 8th, with Alvarado being an option if he's not available or for match-up purposes (but Keller gets LHBs out). And he and Duran both believe in knowing your inning (of course).

I don't think this stat is entirely due to changing roles, it was also bad pitchers! for a lot of those post-Jeanmar years. But obviously in more recent seasons they've spread it out more.

The Phillies have not had a 30-save closer since Jeanmar Gómez in 2016. In each of the last two seasons, across MLB, there were eight 30-save closers. Those seasons were tied for the fewest in a non-shortened season since 1987.

Duran, technically, was a 30-save closer in 2025. He just did it for two teams.

allentown 2026-02-20 15:40:36 UTC #99

That is entirely true but also indicative of a major problem: the Phillies still haven't achieved consistency in their instructional approach and philosophy, compounded by the fact that we recently again changed who was doing the hitting instruction. There is lots of anecdotal info about coaching problems, such as the one I copied about poor guidance to Crawford from his bench coach last season to stand in a crouch in CF so he can burst off at max speed, (before he could even know where to run, leading to delay and bad routes).

AndyB is correct that the Phillies scouts are signing bigger position players, so that our instructional staff has less chance to try to turn the little guys into power hitters.

andyb 2026-02-20 16:00:38 UTC #100

But we are amateurs here. What PC is describing is not really trying to expand the zone. It is how to put on a good swing in certain situations. Very different. Not a strike against PC because he is very knowledgeable, but it is hard to get beyond our history from the 1980s and 1990s.

As Z notes, Kevin Long's philosophy is largely the basis for our instruction. He is big on contact and a 2-strike approach. AND being aggressive early in the count.

Some articles

https://www.mlb.com/news/kevin-long-coaching-two-strike-approach-with-phillies

What gets lost is who we draft and sign. Barber leans more towards hitters with tools. Speed and/or power. In the DSL we are getting mostly speed and the occasional power signing (where are you Jalvin Arias?) are often totally lacking in a hit tool. This leads to a minor league system that has low OBP at the lower levels but once you get to Reading and Lehigh Valley we are actually above average in OBP.

Being mediocre at drafting and scouting in Latin America is very different than being mediocre at developing players. Since Mattingly came aboard everything I've read seems more coherent and logical about our minor league development philosophy. That does not mean it will work. It just means it is not the caricature painted here.