Phillies 2026 Spring Training Discussion

[BostonRoss]

I remember reading Bill James many years ago saying that the 1980 Phillies were an average team except for three superstars (Schmidt, Carlton,and McGraw) plus a good season from Bake McBride.

[zambonir]

They won the fewest games of the four playoff teams that year. And was the 84-win team in '79 really that much worse than the '78 or '80 teams? Probably not. The '77 and '78 teams were great but no happy ending, just like 2011 (or the '22 and '23 Dodgers).

It's completely fuzzy logic/magical thinking but I'm hoping this team is like the '22 team. They probably are not going to win more games than last year's team, and will have a hard time fending off the Mets unless the Mets are the unlucky ones (as they often are). But get a wild card and anything can still happen.

[julio]

Right if we're going with the Pete Rose-era analogy they are going to miss the playoffs this year, and fire Thomson. But they obviously didn't add a major free agent (or trade acquisition). And Rose was a -0.4 WAR and 96 OPS+ in '80 (he was far better in '79).

This.

It seems that the “Pete Rose Mythology” will never go away.

Correlation does not imply causation.

[Philsmania]

I remember reading Bill James many years ago saying that the 1980 Phillies were an average team except for three superstars (Schmidt, Carlton,and McGraw) plus a good season from Bake McBride.

I've heard it said an insisted that the 1977 Phillies were the best Phillies team of that era. But, looking at cumulative WAR, 1980 actually comes out ahead, 44.2 to 43.8. The hitting-pitching disparity between the two teams is striking. For 1977, it was 33.7 WAR for hitting and 10.1 WAR for pitching and for 1980, it was 23.7 WAR for hitting and 20.5 WAR for pitching. I suppose you could say 1977 was more spread around while 1980 was carried by those four guys.

For much the same reason, those Giants championship teams of the 2010's--particularly 2010 and 2014--are also somewhat maligned in sabermetric corners with WAR coming largely from a small number of guys..

[zambonir]

I think we can just say the 101-win team was better than the 90 and 91-win teams without getting too granular about it. Winning the World Series is a whole other thing, and even in the pre-wild card era turned on the flukiness of a five-game LCS until 1984.

[andyb]

I guess the only thing you could say about Rose was that he took the media pressure off of guys like Schmidt who were a little more reluctant to lead vocally. Of course I rarely buy that intangible stuff, but guessing most sportswriters of the era heavily pushed that.

Today we would be talking about a 1B with no power and aging defense that could be replaced by a Joey Meneses type.

[julio]

I guess the only thing you could say about Rose was that he took the media pressure off of guys like Schmidt who were a little more reluctant to lead vocally. Of course I rarely buy that intangible stuff, but guessing most sportswriters of the era heavily pushed that.

Today we would be talking about a 1B with no power and aging defense that could be replaced by a Joey Meneses type.

Yeah. By 1983, Rose was largely replaced…by a Len Matuszek type!

[zambonir]

Another great gulf between statistical reality and the power of mythology is the foul ball catch. A truly memorable play, but had it not been made, it's not like it was going to be a two-run single. Just, "strike 1." It raised the Phillies' WPA from 84% to 92%. All of the offense that made it a 2-0 game in the 4th inning (including Pete's bunt single) was more significant in terms of overall win expectancy.

And today we can't even imagine having to watch late-inning relievers pitch like Tug did in that game (loaded the bases in the eight, two men on in the ninth). Though, our recent crop of guys, he didn't let any of them score.

[LoneStarPhan]

I think there are intangibles but being intangibles, they just can't be quantified.

I am looking forward to another good season from the Phillies. Make the playoffs and who knows what might (or might not) happen.

[Callison]

Watching ST, you often get to see things you don't expect to see, like yesterday's pitchers' duel. Walker looking strong. Kemp killing his momentum with 3 Ks, looks solid at 1B - becoming the next Sosa, but missing the chance to do more. Stott showing at last he really does know how to hit. Rare TV coverage. Opening Day coming way too slowly.

[Philsmania]

Opening Day coming way too slowly.

It's ten days away. Closer than you think.

[Philsmania]

Walker (pitching today) looking very serviceable this spring. That will really cushion a Wheeler absence if true.

Walker was overpaid but for two of his three seasons here in Philadelphia so far, he has been what he was for his entire career so far. For whatever season, 2024 was just a lost season for him.

[zambonir]

I don't think it's a mystery, he was hurt, and the way he finished '23 probably foreshadowed that. Went on the IL in March, April, June, and August. Not always the same injury but obviously he was never able to get right: both his mechanics and his strength. He was pretty decent last year while also changing roles frequently, if that turns out to be a transitional year to even better performance this year that would be great. And a 4.25 ERA starter is probably better than we think these days.

[David_Criss]

It is now official. Boldenome is what Johan Rojas tested positive for and he is officially suspended for 80-games.
https://www.mlb.com/phillies/news/johan-rojas-suspended

[allentown]

An injectable testosterone derivative approved only for veterinary use. Not something he could have accidentally consumed in his food, drink, or as a health additive. Stupid, but I guess he knew he wasn't muscled enough to make in in MLB.

[Philsmania]

His future is pretty much set as an Endy Chavez-type--a combination defensive replacement and pinch runner kind of guy. Do the Phillies nontender him next winter?

[zambonir]

He's probably still worth a tender, will still be making peanuts, and controlled through 2029. Maybe he gets thrown into a trade, or lost on waivers next year. Or maybe he's back in Allentown next year after going off the 40. I still think his regression is more a matter of not being able to adjust his swing to major league pitching (after he got a free pass his first time through) than strength, even if the ability to hit the ball harder can come from both.

For now let's hope we don't actually need to find out what he looks like in the majors come July, because that would mean some other things went wrong.

[andyb]

We will find out shortly whether Dylan Moore makes the team. I guess they only have to put him on the 40-man now (and is there a Rojas roster spot yet?), but I assume they would not do that without him being very likely to make the final major league roster.

Dylan Moore Triggers Opt-Out In Phillies Deal

[allentown]

He hasn't done well enough to merit a 40-man spot at age 33.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Agree. I would let him go.