Phillies 2026 Spring Training Discussion

[zambonir]

The granular nature of this debate sidesteps the issue. It's not about protection, it's about the Phillies simply not having enough power or enough on-base after the three best hitters ("after" in the general sense, not in the line-up). Harper still got on base plenty - second highest OBP on the team full-season (Bader, incredibly was ahead of him and our leadoff hitter behind him). DD's critique was fair given how high a standard "elite" is mean to be - like top 3 MVP finisher. But Harper's hardly the problem with the Phillies offense. And the Phillies offense wasn't even that bad.

[andyb]

I think the studies on lineup protection are a little more mixed than just saying it does not exist. Studies have shown the protected batter gets more strikes and more extra base hits. Where the data gets cloudy is that the walks for an unprotected batter do help that batter's value too. It is also tough to verify because obviously the unprotected batter is always in a weaker lineup overall or there would be protection. Bill James was also looking at overall lineup production with different ordering rather than whether it helps the individual player.

The effect is likely minimal though not zero. It probably works best with a relatively patient hitter like Bryce as well since he knows the strike zone.

How to Quantify Lineup Protection in Baseball — The Paraball Notes

Bigger problem of course is that the whole lineup is kind of mediocre after our 3 top hitters now and those hitters are aging. We really need another 800+ OPS bat to emerge that does not need to be platooned. That is why Miller is so important because he is really our only hitting prospect at the moment that projects to be that type of bat. Crawford at the moment is more of an OBP threat than power. Same with Nori. Escobar has a little potential though does not protect as high as Miller. Rincones is a platoon bat only with more power but less contact and defense than Marsh in comparison.

It is really a lineup problem that only a trade or Miller can probably solve. It is why we wanted Bichette.

[allentown]

Expanding the zone is one of the worse remnants of the pre-analytic, old-school-baseball-type's boneheaded thinking. Fans berated Abreu for taking all those walks when he could have hit .200 expanding the zone and trying to drive in runs. One of my pet peeves about Phillies phans.

It was and wasn't the Phillies fans. This is what the radio and TV announcers, chosen by the team, drummed into fans. The Phillies' official philosophy was that a 'star' who took a walk with a man in scoring position was a coward, who had chosen to shirk is responsibility, take the walk, and leave it to the next, lesser, hitter to drive in the run. The was the organizational philosophy in hte minor leagues. The coaches and managers were extremely critical of Michael Bourn for not being an RBI guy, which he wasn't built to be, rather than an OBP machine which fitted his abilities. The Phillies did their best to ruin him. He was the best OF the Phillies produced in recent years, although Houston got the benefit. I remember the write-ups when the Phillies drafted Dugan. Gillick overflowed with his enthusiasm for Dugan's nice swing, which kept his bat in the zone for an extra-long time. Although he was derailed by injuries, the development staff could not make him the best OBP hitter he could be, he had to be more of an upper cut hitter to generate more power. Just another case of drafting a guy for what he does really well and then trying to turn him into something else, entirely.

Abreu managed to be the best of both worlds: OBP and speed with above-average power. Even that wasn't good enough.

Ironically, when the Phillies have a plus power hitter, the team (through announcers), fans, and media moan about the large number of Ks and swear nobody (or team) with that many Ks can be good.

[schillingfan]

The 2:00 show on Monday afternoon on WIP (not the regular guys) kept arguing that Dombrowski should be fired, as is analysis of HRper’s comments. I had to listen to something else on my ride home, he was so ridiculous.Im not a defender of Dombrowski by any means, but he really had no specifics of what Dombrowski should have done. Or how the salary “cap” works in baseball. Most sports talk hosts are fixated on buying championships.
I agree we haven't really replaced Rhys, but of course Harper and Schwarber meant there was no position for him

I posited earlier that I think Schwarber and Harper need to be split up and was told it wasn’t hurting Schwarber as he hit lefties. But it did cause Harper to face mostly left-handed relievers in later innngs. It made it s easry t switch to a leftie after Turner and I got sick o seeing it every damn game. Do we have statistics about a Bryce versus leftie relievers?

[andyb]

Ironically, when the Phillies have a plus power hitter, the team (through announcers), fans, and media moan about the large number of Ks and swear nobody (or team) with that many Ks can be good.

That is just not true though. Our plus power hitter believes that situational aggressiveness early in the count enhances his power. Harper had an 1169 OPS on the first pitch in 2025. 1122 career. Our hitting coach generally agrees with this philosophy.

We are not talking about Michael Bourn. We have not had that hitting mentality as an organization in decades. It is a valid question as to whether having protection in the lineup will get a hitter like Harper more good pitches to hit. That is also a very different question as to whether he should expand the zone more often when he does not have protection. Harper may be wrong to do so in those situations because his walk is still helpful even when he is followed by a very average hitter. I don't know whether expanding the zone occasionally is a good idea with a bad hitter on deck is a good idea. It might be. It might not be.

Better to get a good number 4 hitter. We can all agree on that. I really don't care who are organizational hitting coaches were 20 years ago. It is a different world today.

[allentown]

I really don't care who are organizational hitting coaches were 20 years ago. It is a different world today.

Is it really? Did they do a plus job developing Bohm? What success stories can they really point to. The proof will come when we see multiple, young, home-grown, above average MLB hitters produced. Where are the future hitting stars in our lower minors? I keep reading how we have a lot of strength in the lower minors, but the strength of the farm is upper level guys Miller, Painter, and Crawford. We have very promising recent signings, such as Renteria, but they have barely been touched by our development staff. These aren't the first recent guys to get good reviews, whom the development staff haven't progressed at a commendable rate.

[andyb]

You are just not making sense. You claim the team has a philosophy similar to the ones that failed Kelly Dugan and traded Michael Bourn. That is just not true and really a waste of time discussing.

This is a very analytical organization now. There can be no debate about that. They were just wrong on Bohm's power potential though. That is probably more a scouting mistake than a developmental one.

We do have a relatively thin minor league system. Part of that is drafting poorly or late. Part is bad international signings. Part is losing international allocations. Part is trading prospects.

But to say we are an organization that would not prize someone like Michael Bourn is just wrong. Look at our 22-year-old starting CF this year.

[Philsmania]

We also drafted and produced Marlon Byrd though he took five years and three organizations to figure things out at the ML level.

Interestingly, Byrd and Bourn were teammates on the 2010 National League All-Star team.

[allentown]

You are just not making sense. You claim the team has a philosophy similar to the ones that failed Kelly Dugan and traded Michael Bourn. That is just not true and really a waste of time discussing.

You said you don't care what are hitting philosophy was 20 years ago. Well, we have had a lot of reorganizations and proclaimed turnarounds by optimists such as yourself during that time. We had a lot of years with good draft position and large international allocation, or total freedom to spend as much as we wanted, during those 20 years. Where are the position player success of the scouting and development staff over that time? We have Bohm and we have Stott. Stott is a plus defender and a nice player, but he has trended down since his first year as essentially a full-time starter and that was his only year with an above average OPS+. What have our hitting staff done for him? I like Bohm as well, but he is generally viewed as a failure by fans and this board. He doesn't seem to have quite lived up to his hitting potential. Again, have our hitting instructors helped him? He was viewed as the best hitter in his draft class. I'll be thrilled to be able to say 'the corner has been turned' when there is objective evidence that the corner has been turned.

[andyb]

Doing a bad job drafting and developing now is a very different question than the philosophies 20 years ago (or further back). You know that. We simply do not employ those philosophies now or anything close to that.

We were talking about Bryce Harper's hitting philosophy and whether he needed protection in the lineup. Somehow you get off on a tangent where you think Bill Dancy is still teaching hitting in this organization. That time is long gone.

[phillychuck]

I agree with Allentown’s take on this. This organization is still taking minor leaguers and trying to make good contact hitters who are selective into 20 HR “power" hitters with uppercut swings. They may be different people, but they still believe in expanding the zone and increasing launch angle. It’s couched in analytic terms, but it’s the same BS. Go to CLW and hang around the minor league complex and you will hear the hitting coaches talking about expanding the zone with runners on base and optimizing launch angle to pretty much all the hitters, even the 5’10”, 160 lb shortstops.

[fish]

So do the Phillies have a bigger issue here?

I would factor in some staleness to repeatedly running it back with the same core.

[Austinfan]

Garcia may bounce back a little, but he's on the downward slope, as is JT - not expect much.
Marsh is a solid platoon hitter, but needs a RH bat.
Bohm had shoulder issues, but even if he bounces back, it'll be as a line drive (10-15 HR, 40 2B) hitter. He's not selective so no .350 OPB, and hard to reach .450 SA.
Stott is a puzzle, on paper he should be a good hitter, good discipline, bat control, but one season he can't hit FBs, next season pounds them, then regresses again.

So basically it comes down to Crawford drawing walks, bunts, hard hit GB and line drives and hitting .300 with .350+ OPB, 50 SB and forcing them to move him to leadoff second half of season. Then top of lineup is excellent.
Kemp has to just hit LH pitching to give them a solid LF platoon.
I think Miller is more 2027 unless he explodes in AAA ball.
Same with Rincones, who'd have to tear it up to force a partial platoon with Garcia.

[phillychuck]

The success of this team will depend on the pitching--health and consistency. Wheeler, of course, is the big wild card. If he’s back healthy by June, this team will be fine...enough offense and pitching-driven.

[allentown]

Yes, if Wheeler is back as Wheeler by mid-season and more rested for playoffs, that should be fine. Dodgers did great with that this past season, although their lineup is better. For the start of season, it is vital that we have something closely resembling the old Nola and that Painter get going by May.

[andyb]

I agree with Allentown’s take on this. This organization is still taking minor leaguers and trying to make good contact hitters who are selective into 20 HR “power" hitters with uppercut swings. They may be different people, but they still believe in expanding the zone and increasing launch angle. It’s couched in analytic terms, but it’s the same BS. Go to CLW and hang around the minor league complex and you will hear the hitting coaches talking about expanding the zone with runners on base and optimizing launch angle to pretty much all the hitters, even the 5’10”, 160 lb shortstops.

This is not really looking at the same farm system. First, we don't really have lots of 5;10", 160 pound shortstops. Just about everyone is bigger these days. Yes we are teaching a certain analytical swing to add more power, but that is because power is more valuable. We don't really have these legions of selective hitters that we are teaching to be less selective. Often a hitter in the lower minors is drawing walks because of pitchers that can't throw strikes. Their walks decline in upper levels because the pitchers are better. And they need some power to increase their walks against better hitters. That will be a key Crawford element as he will not draw many walks without a bit more power.

Nobody really talks expanding the zone as well. They are talking about getting a good pitch to hit. And also putting a good swing on that pitch which requires an aggressive approach. Try waiting on a 98 mph fastball to see if it is a strike. Only the best hitters can do that. Most hitters pick their spots in the count to get a good swing in. That is what Bryce Harper does all the time. You try to identify the pitch and a zone. If you think fastball inside then you can put on a swing that can do damage to that fastball even if it is a little off the plate. With two strikes one should change their approach and protect the plate even if it means swinging at balls off the plate a bit.

We just are not teaching the same way as we did 20 and 40 years ago. Some things of course are similar. Hitting is always a mix of patience and aggression. And it's harder now with everyone throwing 98 instead of 88.

The philosophy is less the issue than the scouting and drafting. Johnny Almaraz was pretty much a disaster (Randolph,, Moniak, Haseley were his first top picks before Bohm). Barber has had a bit more success though not a lot of high picks. Derrick Chung seems to be getting better high end international talent to sign than Sal did though we are probably 5 years away from evaluating his success rate.

Considering trades and lost picks and where we have been drafting the system is doing OK. We are in the bottom 5 in resources but usually closer to the 15-22 range in the rankings. That is not awful. We still trade prospects too (Tait and Klassen and Lee are all top 200 prospects traded in recent years). We are better at developing pitching than hitting but that does not mean our hitting instruction is anywhere near as bad as you portray.

[phillychuck]

The bottom line to me is that the hitting coaches are still advocating bad strategies like "expand the zone with runners on base”. They should be honing hitters' swings to enable them to get the barrel on the ball regardless of launch angle. I go the minor league games and to the complex at CLW almost every year, and I still hear that trash. It shouldn’t be "be patient until you get a good pitch to hit," it should be “be patient, period., don’t swing out of the zone.” Hitting coaches do not acknowledge the value of walks--it’s like they never read moneyball. The best offensive teams over the last 20 years have been the most patient teams generally, not the most aggressive, yet hitting coaches for the Phillies emphasize aggressiveness and launch angle.

Even for the relatively tiny middle infielders we sometimes sign...

You can learn to be more selective with what you swing at, even with 98 mph fastballs. You can see that with players as they age--they almost always get more selective...it’s a skill that can be acquired.

We have, unfortunately, an organization that hasn’t developed a top hitting prospect in over a decade. I think the over-emphasis on aggressiveness and the lack of coaching for selectivity is much of the problem.

[Philsmania]

I agree with Allentown’s take on this. This organization is still taking minor leaguers and trying to make good contact hitters who are selective into 20 HR “power" hitters with uppercut swings. They may be different people, but they still believe in expanding the zone and increasing launch angle. It’s couched in analytic terms, but it’s the same BS. Go to CLW and hang around the minor league complex and you will hear the hitting coaches talking about expanding the zone with runners on base and optimizing launch angle to pretty much all the hitters, even the 5’10”, 160 lb shortstops.

The philosophy is less the issue than the scouting and drafting. Johnny Almaraz was pretty much a disaster (Randolph,, Moniak, Haseley were his first top picks before Bohm). Barber has had a bit more success though not a lot of high picks. Derrick Chung seems to be getting better high end international talent to sign than Sal did though we are probably 5 years away from evaluating his success rate.

Considering trades and lost picks and where we have been drafting the system is doing OK. We are in the bottom 5 in resources but usually closer to the 15-22 range in the rankings. That is not awful. We still trade prospects too (Tait and Klassen and Lee are all top 200 prospects traded in recent years). We are better at developing pitching than hitting but that does not mean our hitting instruction is anywhere near as bad as you portray.

The reason why we've had to largely build a team around free agents (Wheeler, Harper, Schwarber, Casty, Turner) and guys who we trade some of our few prospects to get (Realmuto, Sanchez, Marsh) is because the Klentak regime failed to adequately rebuild the farm and why the whole rebuild started after 2015 darned near failed if not for a massive infusion of money spent on the ML roster. A franchise in a smaller market with a more shallow-pocketed owner may well have just blown it all up and started over again after 2020. Nola, Hoskins, Bohm and Stott have been the only homegrown regular faces in this current run of success. A stark contrast to the previous golden age which was centered on homegrown guys (Burrell, Rollins, Utley, Howard, Hamels, Myers, Ruiz).

As much as I rag on the Phillies pharm system, yes, despite having poor drafting position and less resources to play with, they've managed to establish a middle-tier pharm system which may be a signal the guys they have now may know what they are doing (though perhaps not like the Dodgers who manage to have an elite farm system despite finishing near the top of MLB every year).

[andyb]

We are just not teaching hitters to expand the zone like you say. Bryce Harper did expand the zone too much last year and he blames the lack of protection in the batting order. This just has nothing to do with how the Phillies teach hitting. We recognize plate discipline a lot. Teaching hitters how to get a good pitch to hit is not teaching them to expand the zone the way you imply.

With Bryce I was worried that decreasing bat speed might have more to do with it than the lack of protection. Hopefully that is from injury issues that are now over and he recovers a bit. It was pretty apparent to me that he was getting beat more on good fastballs in the zone, especially compared to Schwarber who is not showing any signs of age yet.

[phillychuck]

Andy, I know we still teach that because I’ve personally heard our coaches telling our minor leaguers to do that (or had minor leaguers tell me about it), both in CLW in the spring and in Reading and LV (when I’m close enough to listen).