Phillies 2026 Spring Training Discussion

[phillychuck]

Most arrhythmias are drug-treatable, but the trick is finding the right drugs. Many heart patients go through a few years of getting the drug combos and doses just right for stability. It took over a decade to find the right meds for my wife who has an arrhythmia problem which is now well-controlled.

[andyb]

If Crawford merely sticks all season I'll be happy.

Getting that prospect promotion pick with ROY is still the goal. And Konnor Griffin got sent down. Struggled in the second half of training camp and really the incentive of a bonus pick compared to a 7th year of control is really not a close contest anyway for a small market team.

[zambonir]

Well, he won't be ROTY because Painter will be

If things go that well for Crawford we can also debate him hitting higher in the line-up.

[zambonir]

Gelb predicts Wheeler is ready in April, even mid-April (he's counting today's sim game as his first ST start).

Phillies’ smooth spring, punctuated by Zack Wheeler, gives reason for optimism

[Austinfan]

Why rush him? Walker looks OK, Painter looks solid, Nola has his velo back.
I'll take one loss in April to have prime time Wheeler in May with no setbacks.

[zambonir]

Not exactly a huge sample size on those guys, especially from Mr. "I don't even pay attention to spring training until the last two weeks."

I don't think they will rush him, but it's not like he's a risk to re-injure himself either, so he's either ready to pitch or he isn't. And is likely better than Walker or Painter even if he's still trying to find his mechanics or velocity.

[Austinfan]

He's lost 10 lbs by his own account. That's a significant loss of strength.
Danger comes from the temptation to overthrow in a real game while building back his arm strength.
He's no spring chicken, no point pushing him, especially if he needs time to rebuild leg and arm strength.
The bullpen is fresh, the rotation looks solid, so like I said, holding him back for a couple starts won't have much impact on the season

[Matt_Winkelman]

They aren’t rushing him, they are actively holding him back and scoping a program that lets him build up. I am sure they will be watching all the numbers as he makes his starts and adjusting as it goes. If Wheeler had his way he would have come into camp a full participant and broken camp with the team.

[zambonir]

Wheels goes for the Iron Pigs on Saturday!

[Philsmania]

Phillies went 3-7 in their last ten exhibition games. Possible red flag.

[zambonir]

I thought the conventional wisdom was there's an inverse relationship between spring training records and regular season success. (Also applies to individual stats.)

[phillychuck]

We have to hope so! Turner will be winning the batting title...didn’t waste many hits in CLW.

[julio]

I thought the conventional wisdom was there's an inverse relationship between spring training records and regular season success.

I suspect there's just not much correlation.

[zambonir]

I was mostly kidding. I'm also sure people have done the math.

Haha I can't even tell what year this was. 2003 with Thome I guess?

https://www.espn.com/mlb/columns/bp/1518849.html

They're already grumbling in Philadelphia. The Phillies, after a strong offseason that has elevated them to the status of NL East favorites, have started their exhibition season by losing four of their first five games. Phillies fans, not exactly the most patient and supportive group around, are beginning to gripe about the poor start on talk radio and the internet.

But I'm here to put Philadelphians' minds at ease, at least until next month. Even if the Phillies play this way for the rest of March, it won't have any bearing on whether they'll be playing in October. Aside from dugout chatter, power ballads, and Yogi Berra quotes, there is nothing less meaningful in the baseball world than spring training records.

From the Athletic in 2018

Our analysis found an R² of 5 percent. That means just 5 percent of the variance in regular-season win-loss records is predicted by spring training records. In other words, they’re almost completely unrelated to one another.

For example, from 2008-2011 the Phillies tied for the best regular-season record in baseball at 384-264 (.594). Yet, in that span they were below .500 in the spring.

In projecting regular-season results, history shows spring training records...

[Philsmania]

The rule of thumb I usually use is that in the last two ST games, you start to see the teams which start the season.

[zambonir]

The rosters, sure. But that's still just two games. I don't think losing the last two ST games means any more than winning or losing the first few regular season games. We all remember 2023 (0-4) and 2024 (0-2). Last year was better (2-0).

[jimbomill]

Phillies went 3-7 in their last ten exhibition games

How many of those 10 games were without the WBC participants?

[zambonir]

Six. Starting pitchers in a few of those were Mayza and King. Garrett Stubbs was the lead-off hitter and 3B in one of them.

But they did finish the season, post-WBC, 0-3-1.

[julio]

The rule of thumb I usually use is that in the last two ST games, you start to see the teams which start the season.

The rosters, sure. But that's still just two games.

Yep. Sample size of... two. Making any inference from a sample size of two...

Well, let's just say that statisticians would not go there. Ever. Politicians, on the other hand...

[andyb]

The trend of veterans not going to road games has really downgraded any sort of value in Spring results that might have existed decades ago. And even the starters are not going on a road trip when they can just do a simulated game or face minor leaguers late in camp. Now if we are not winning the home games in the second half of camp - that could be an issue.