Phillies 2026 Spring Training Discussion

[owaistabish]

https://www.mlb.com/news/jesus-luzardo-extension-with-phillies?adobe_mc=TS%3D1773095838%7CMCMID%3D04874996734541653249184884083466395786%7CMCORGID%3DA65F776A5245B01B0A490D44@AdobeOrg&affiliateId=mlbapp-ios_webview_news-index&rsid=mlbios.at.bat.new.implementation

[BaseballCat]

Good news! Lets hope we can get a WS title in one of those years ️

[andyb]

5/135 seems like a fair deal to me. The length is clearly within the range where he should not drop off too much. $5 million more than Ranger just got but he'll be a year younger when the deal starts.

Not saying it is a better deal than Ranger. He has better stuff but less track record. It is just in the same range and they needed to do one of them.

[BaseballCat]

Appears to start in 2027 (which may never occur). So have him six more years with an option if this story is true

Phillies, Jesús Luzardo Agree To Extension

[zambonir]

It always seemed like this was the choice the Phillies were making, not only because Luzardo is younger but because they knew they'd be able to do this (whereas Ranger, a Boras client, was gonna have to be blown away to not reach the open market. It might have happened in 2024 had he not gotten hurt!)

[Austinfan]

Catching up on games, Kemp had a "Schwarber bomb", 111 MPH, 420 feet.
Speed, power, comes down to whether he can learn to consistently hit breaking stuff.
Like I pointed out, he's inexperienced for his age.
548 PA college
1389 minors
218 majors
Most players his age would have another 500-1000 PA.
Which is probably why the organization likes him, raw tools, and a chance to develop them further.

[andyb]

It really comes down to whether Kemp can catch the ball. His offense is acceptable but his defense is poor and the DH slot is taken. Could be play LF next year with Marsh moving to RF? Maybe. Time to stop using the lack of playing time as an excuse though. He has plenty. He's just a butcher in the field at the moment (and your other favorite Keaton Anthony was a horror show in his own LF debut)..

Hopefully full health will allow Kemp to be better this year. Just not sure he'll ever stay healthy and he might be better suited to a team with an open DH slot. He'll get chances this year because there is little behind him. Rincones has been hurt also so he is not going to be a factor in the first couple months of the season in addition to Rojas. If only he had Dylan Moore's defensive skills...

[Callison]

Listening to an interview with Kemp late last year, he talked as if he'd gone back to the swing/approach that got him where he is. Sounded like "improvements" had been made in his swing which never really worked for him, said he wanted to "...let Otto be Otto..." etc. He thinks he can do a lot more. If he hits .275+ with power in ST does he win the start in LF? If Crawford doesn't leadoff, maybe Kemp could bat second? Sposed to have good not great speed.

IMHO, he is a capable IF, both at 3rd and 2nd. He can be an adequate LF if he can hit.

Another player who has talked similar talk and is living up to it - Stott. Could be time to resurrect toe Stott to leadoff experiment.

Dylan Moore might be a great defensive player but he is a screaming hole in the lineup. The bottom of the Phils' lineup has been fill of holes for years. They've already got plenty.

[phillychuck]

I don’t think Kemp is a sure thing offensively, but his minor league RC+ statistics for 2023, 24, and 25 were 104, 138, and 160 where 100 is league average. There is a chance they found a bat with him, and I want to give that chance an opportunity to play out. Just hoping he’s better than Schwarber in LF...

[zambonir]

Kemp is the platoon LF, and that's all he has to be, because Marsh wound up producing at a very high level after he came off the IL (albeit in the platoon). If he can be more than that, great, he will have more opportunities next season once Bohm and probably Sosa leave (and Garcia too). I think he has every shot but those AAA RC numbers aren't much different than what Wilson and Cave did in LV.

Moore is at most the 26th guy and a bench player, and that's all he has to be. He hasn't even made the team yet.

Turner is the lead-off hitter, and the best hitter in the NL (by batting average).

The bottom of the order will be better if Crawford is good. Stott was excellent in the second half too last year (.855 OPS).

Not really anything wrong with an offense that teamed up with good pitching to win 96 games and had the 4th-best OPS in MLB last year, especially since Nick isn't a loss and Bader didn't really contribute that much other than one hot month. If it's going to be better - and it might have to be with some uncertainly in the rotation - it's going to come from Harper, Crawford, Garcia. We very much want it to be better and more dangerous in October but there are no answers to be found for that in discussions about our secondary hitters or the batting order.

[andyb]

Back to Nola. The stuff seems better this year:

The velocity has been the story of Nola's spring. Last season, his average fastball sat at 91.4 mph. Wednesday against Mexico, it was 92.8 mph, touching 94.5 — a new spring high. He's also shown a noticeable uptick in spin rate, reading at 2,408 RPMs, up from a 2,320 average.

‘Vintage Nols': Aaron Nola shines for Italy, Phillies camp takes notice

[Callison]

Notice Kemp's numbers show huge growth for each of the 2 years. Cave surely proved again and again to the Phils those stats don't mean much. But every player is different. I like the way Kemp looks at the plate and hold some hope for him.

Though many think the order is unimportant, IMHO the Phils' order in particular can be stronger with Harper at 3, Schwarber at 4. Rob needs another hitter up the order to get there and it could be Crawford, Kemp or Stott.

[zambonir]

The only thing that matters is you hit your best - and best OBP - hitters higher in the order. None of those guys are among the team's four best hitters. Kemp is only going to play 25% of the games so he especially doesn't work, unless Stott or Marsh hit in his spot when he doesn't play.

I hope Kemp is good and Stott and Marsh continue to be as they were last year in the second half but it's still Bohm and Garcia who need to deliver in the middle of the order. Schwarber or Harper should hit 2nd and 3rd to get the most ABs. There's an argument to put Schwarber back at lead-off too (and one to let Harper do it, but he probably won't).

[phillychuck]

Cave surely proved again and again to the Phils those stats don't mean much.

This is a paraphrase of a famous quote, “Not every hitter with good minor league numbers goes on to become a major league contributor, but nearly every major league contributor had good minor league numbers.”

Necessary condition, but not sufficient.

[andyb]

Two factors at play here. The difference between AAA and the majors has expanded with minor league contraction and roster limits. The lack of short season A ball push prospects up a half level. And the roster limits mean we can carry fewer AAAA players in the upper minors.

Then age versus level matters as well. A Jack Cave or Weston Wilson producing good numbers in their late 20s is different than a 21-24 year old producing those numbers. The younger players have room for improvement so their AAA numbers are more meaningful if they are good. Kemp is a little in between here in that his AAA numbers are meaningful because of his age and experience, but he is still a little older so can't expect as much improvement as a Crawford might. His larger issue is defense of course though we should get used to seeing AAA players lose 200+ OPS points in the majors as the gap between the levels is simply larger than it used to be.

[zambonir]

I'm all for respecting minor league numbers but it seems like it has been pretty well-discussed and documented that the gap between AAA and MLB is bigger than it has ever been, so that expectation we have that a guy who gets over the Reading/AA hump and thrives in LV has to be tempered beyond just the usual gap/adjustment to the big leagues (not that our guys always met those expectations 10 or 15 years ago either!). The pitching is not as good (with the really good ones spending very little time in AAA) and the hitters also feast on both familiarity with bullpens and fringe starting pitchers due to the the six-game series schedule. It doesn't seem like AAA is full of veteran - i.e. AAAA type - SPs either. If they're serviceable they end up as an MLB sixth starter or long reliever.

On the whole, Kemp was not a major league player last year. Negative WAR, sub-100 OPS+, doesn't really have a defensive position. He slugged big in September, but that still came with a sub-.300 OBP. But he was also hurt. So hopefully there is more there.

Ironically, the bar for him is probably around same as it was for Castellanos - he's gotta be a solid 10% above average at the plate (i.e. 110 OPS+). Wilson had a 129 OPS+ in 2024 (in just 98 PAs).

[andyb]

At least Painter gave up a long home run to a good prospect this afternoon.

https://www.mlb.com/video/samuel-basallo-s-two-run-home-run-x1115

[phillychuck]

Struck him out the pitch before, but the ump missed it and Stubbs didn’t challenge.

[andyb]

Bohm with 2 HRs today after 1 yesterday. He is being very aggressive this spring hitting .375 (9-24) but only 1 BB and 3 K. It will be interesting to see what kind of year he has in his contract year. More power from him would be a good sign.

[fish]

Listening to an interview with Kemp late last year, he talked as if he'd gone back to the swing/approach that got him where he is.

I have trouble even recognizing Kemp when he’s at the plate this spring- he’s in great shape.