Phillies 2026 News and Discussion

[Philsmania]

Obviously, tanking no longer guarantees a particular drafting spot but it does give you more ping pong balls.

I agree completely about how the Dodgers and Braves farm systems never seem to suffer for ML success and to a lesser extent, the same is true of the Yankees, Cardinals and Red Sox. On the other hand, runs of ML success In Philadelphia lead to pathetic Phillies farm systems and resulting long rebuilds (as opposed to what's happening now in St. Louis where the Cardinals will probably be back in contention by 2028).

The Phillies need better people scouting and developing players, period, plain and simple. The tanking of 1989-91 didn't succeed, either (1993 was one of the best patchwork jobs in ML history but still just a one-year patchwork job despite what Lee Thomas and Bill Giles thought at the time). Generations come and go but with the exception of Paul Owens's and Ed Wade's GMships, we never get scouting and development right. And, only Owens knew how to concoct the special sauce which enabled the farm to stay strong despite success at the top.

[zambonir]

Obviously, tanking no longer guarantees a particular drafting spot but it does give you more ping pong balls.

Perhaps more importantly, they might stop dropping 10 places and giving up second-round picks. Over multiple years that matter whether you are rebuilding or not.

The culture and history of the franchise seems to subsume all who come into it, rather than vice-versa. Fuld was a Dodgers/Rays family tree guy and Klentak hire (and Kapler was also a Dodgers/Rays guy and is - (edit: oops, he's the Marlins' GM under another Rays guy). Mattingly came from the Padres (and obviously played for and was around the Dodgers). And DD was a crony hire as much as anything, same as it ever was. Glllick and MacPhail-approved instead of Giles and Monty-approved. They've added 100 people in analytics and scouting and training and so forth. But it all still feels the same, good and bad.

[Philsmania]

Klentak was MacPhail's crony and Preston gives me a serious DD crony vibe.

And, as I keep asking, why the heck do new Phillies administrations keep holding on to the same people who helped to make the mess under the last administration? For instance, Klentak keeping Amaro's guys (Almaraz and Jordan) for the most of his tenure and DD keeping Klentak's guys (Fuld, Valendia and Barber). Maybe that's why our outsiders always get subsumed by the organization's culture.

Kapler is the Marlins GM but that is an organization moving in the right direction so your point stands.

[zambonir]

I think of Barber as Middleton's hire, he came with Girardi (and Klentak had nothing to do with that managerial search). But they are all Middleton's hires. He brought more money and aggression and open-mindedness compared to the old ownership group. but that was a low bar. Andthe current ownership group, which includes four other partners as well as Monty's family and Gillick, feels a bit MMM 2.0.

[allentown]

Trading Wheeler won't lead to tanking a couple of years. We only have him for one more year. Schwarber still playing well. I'd keep him. J.T. same as Wheeler -- do we really think he'll be a plus asset 2 years from now? Our last dark ages was a lot longer than two years and that time the Phillies traded their talent too late to get much of a return. That approach didn't work. And I don't think you can just say things are different because we have $. Our major competition has $$. The Phillies of the last golden era spent a lot of $ on stars. They did miss a golden WC chance when RAJ gave them a rotation headed by Halladay-Lee-and Hamels and ownership threw it away to avoid a roughly $6 million budget overrun for a single season. That was short-sighted. Not holding onto all of our expensive talent today and watching it age while the team doesn't have a shot at WS is another wasted opportunity.

[Philsmania]

MMM abbreviation for...?

Giles was one who insisted that his GM's keep his pals in place. Woody Woodward got fired for speaking his mind about Jim Baumer, et al.. Woodward went on to Seattle where he gave the Mariners their first taste of success and largely built what Gillick took credit for in 2001.

[zambonir]

Well, the tanking part with Wheeler would only be for one year but the return would be the highest of any guy on the roster. Same for Schwarber and Realmuto (who is certainly worth far more with two years of control than as a rental in two years) return-wise.

They're not going to tank, so none of them are going to be traded for prospects. But if tanking and an agressive/short rebuild while you still have Sanchez and Luzardo was the goal, that's the only path. Nola, Turner and Harper either have to hang around through a few down years, get you minimal return (or a better one with some their $ still on the payroll), or are traded for other team's similar players (like Chapman or Devers).

I still don't think they were wrong to be all-on on the "Wheeler window." But a lot went wrong, starting with Nola and Painter, and now the collapsing bullpen.There was no reason to think Turner would be this bad. That they once again failed to get a RF is less surprising and somewhat more minor

[zambonir]

MMM abbreviation for...?

I had to go pretty far back to find a usage of it. Can't remember if it was the term of a certain Daily News columnist, regularly used here, or more common on the Listserv.

But the comments from Tiggerhawk (RIP) haven't aged!

July 2, 2016 International Signing Period

Apparently posters here have bought into the sales pitch that we have the NEW Phillies. IMO a bit more buyer's beware is prudent. These are, after all, the same old, same old Mainline Monied Morons, with a few changes of generation, and more crucially maybe a shift in ownership shares.
Perhaps Middleton means what he says---but until there is evident of money actually spent, for all we know the profits will continue to go into already crammed portfolios, only larger denomination bills.

Reminder: Bill Giles played the shell game of constantly changing GMs, managers, front office, cheap salaried players---and he did it for two decades until public funding brought a new ballpark & increased fan interest. MacPhail is of an age to soon join Pat Gillick on a St Petersburg park bench. and Klentak is an apparently very bright guy only his experience is mostly with computers.

[EDmuch]

You know, I don't buy this criticism of Middleton because he may not want to burn his billion dollar investment to the ground and start over is fair. He put his money were his mouth had been and has put the dollars into the team. As a result, he want to see the return on his investment in the short term while he is still alive. There is nothing wrong with that. It sustainable long term, maybe, maybe not. But I am not aware of any probability analysis that says burning it down and gambling on draft pick for several years presents a better model for future success, especially with our draft and player development record. To me the MLB draft is the biggest crap shoot of all the four major sports because ti deals so heavily with high school and foreign young players. So I can understand why Middleton wants to keep his investment active even if it means continuing to buy older more expensive players for a while longer. To me the bigger issue is the draft and development program. And frankly, there, I see, a bit of a light in the darkness. These last 2 years it seems they. have added some prospects with legit hope that they could develop into ML players. So I strongly disagree about a crash in the next few years that will lead to a long term downturn. Those long term dark periods were a result of the MMM refusing to put money into more expensive MLB players while developing younger players. That is not a vice MIddleton has shown.

[Taudawg]

They don't need to tank on purpose, yet they do need to rethink what it takes to build a sustainable winner. They are headed off a cliff in the next year or two and may end up tanking unintentionally. Looking at future free agent lists, the ability to outspend their problems isn't going to be an option. Superstars aren't hitting the market in the mid 20s anymore.

[allentown]

He can make that work by trading old expensive players at deadline and signing a replacement younger expensive player during off-season. His current team became stale and entitled. I think the DD/Harper feud started when Harper got super greedy and asked for an extension on his super-long, super-expensive contract so that he could retire as a Phillies player. The 'no longer elite' signaled DD's ongoing unhappiness at a player who was starting to fade and trying to play GM. Castellanos was the huge worm can but it appears other vets had his back. In addition to the to-be-expected injuries there seems to be a different vibe on an old vet team, although I think limited to the hitters on the Phillies.

[flyers19rw]

I pretty much agree with your assessment. The core is the mound. Also I am glad to see that Painter is listed by you in that category. He'll get it straightened out. Basically because of his surgery, IMO, this is his D+2 season. He's learning how to work with the stuff that he has post surgery. Patience please.
Unlike many others, i like what I see in Crawford. He's turning into a competent CF which the club has lacked for years. His speed is a weapon. Right now I seem as a keeper.
I don't believe that Harper will be here much longer. With Vegas getting the A's in the near future, they'll want a headliner for their roster and Harper could well be that guy. Add to that the fact that Harper is that he's not a happy camper. Two years ago he made a play for an extension which Middleton did not accept. Now there's this dust up with Dombrowski that is just simmering away. I could be wrong but I believe that if Middleton had to choose between the two feuding entities, he'd side with DD. Besides what has Dombrowski said about Harper that is wrong? In two years, I predict that LV and Middleton will find a way to make a trade work.
The sooner that Turner gets out of the IF, the better for the club. Stott is a great defender which the pitcher need and is becoming a solid player at the plate. He's the guy to hold down the IF. IMO he's a core player to keep around unless his salary demands get to be unreasonable.
The Phillies seem to have become Schwarber's team. When he's on, they win; when he's cold, they're done. The series with the Marlins clearly shows that. He also has to be the most popular player with the fans.
So there is my core-Sanchez, Luzardo, Painter, Crawford, Stott and Schwarber. That's twenty percent of a solid roster. They're pros. They go out and do their jobs setting great examples for the rest of the roster.. If there is a lockout next year, I don't expect many, if any, of the current guys to be around for a potential 'season in 2028.

[zambonir]

IMO he's a core player to keep around unless his salary demands get to be unreasonable.

Well, that's a big question. He needs an extension after next year. He may refuse to take one (Boras). So then you're either getting outbid for him or stepping up with a deal that is probably either more $ or more years than you really want. But as Taudawg says there aren't a ton of other FAs from outside your own roster either.

You didn't mention Marsh who is looking awful right now but he's still youngish and needs an extension after next year too. There's certainly no one in the system to replace him (though I guess that is Rincones Jr.'s upside) and it seems it's not that easy to find good FA OFs either, or we'd have gotten one by now!

Middleton is only 71 years old. I agree they are not going to repeat the lengthy dark period of 2012-2020, let alone whatever '84-'07 was (for all intents and purposes). But if he wants his f---ing trophy before he's 80 he might have to rethink the path/timeline after next year.

[julio]

Middleton is only 71 years old.

I like that attitude! (Middleton is only 71.) (I'm 72.)

[flyers19rw]

Stott is a solid player. Boras may want to pump his tires but there's only so much air that they can take before blowing out with Stott's numbers being what they are. A super star deal isn't in the cards for him. Five years at 12-15M per is probably as good as he would get anywhere and the Phillies would probably give him that. Unless LV wants to throw crazy money at a local guy when they open up shop.
I have never been a fan of Marsh. He is not a good CF which is what he was expected to play when the trade went down. His inability to hit left handed pitchers has resurfaced.

[zambonir]

I don't see much difference between Marsh and Stott tbh. Marsh was a gold glove finalist in LF when we got him, the move to CF was a goal but not a likelihood (that year, Schwarber was our LF and Marsh was still a huge upgrade over what they had). Rojas was supposed to take over and now Crawford is (and it's not at all clear Crawford is a CF or can hit LHP either). Stott was equally disappointing for not being good enough to stay at SS. And he's actually one of the worst 2B in MLB this year by DRS (-6). OAA likes him better.

He's probably a better 2B than Marsh is an OF but Marsh is still a better hitter, platooned or not (oddly Stott is poor against RHP this year), and a higher-WAR player this year. Stott seems headed for his career-worst WAR and has never been able to get back to his '23 level. Marsh is not the slugging LF bat we wish we had, but who is?

[EDmuch]

Broadcast team has shown stats showing Stott is the best hitter we have with men in scoring position. He is going to have 12-15 home runs, 25 stolen based a .260 BA and play decent defense. If there is some statistical system that poo poos those numbers, then I poo poo that statistical system.

[zambonir]

Bohm is also once again a beast with scoring position. It's important, but if you're not that great a hitter the other 80% of your ABs, it doesn't change that. Power (which turns home plate and 1B into scoring position) matters more. OBP matters more (and Stott is at least better at that than Bohm and even Turner, when you separate it from BA).

I'm not down on Stott especially. But Stott and Marsh are both the only position players we have with true positive trade value (not old, not tied to onerous contracts) and the only two position players who need new contracts after 2027. In both cases their futures are also tied to Miller and Turner - if Miller plays and where Turner plays (3B, 2B, LF, SS, CF?)

If Marsh turns his season around and keeps it going again next year, he probably leaves just because the Phillies won't meet his price. I agree Stott will be easier to keep. But 2B also still might be the best place for Turner, or an easier position to fill via trade or FA.

We could get Arraez right now if they really did want to start moving all the IFs around (and bench or trade Bohm).

Stott and Turner have actually been our best hitters in July. Not a winning formula it seems.

[BostonRoss]

Just noting that the Phillies' OPS against RHP is .708; against LHP it is .690. Not as big a differences as I would have thought. Neither number is great, but I think the Phillies should focus on bringing in any good hitter, regardless of which side of the plate he bats from.

[andyb]

The difference against LH vs RH is not that great, but the number of LH hitters in the lineup means we face more LHP than most teams especially with our best LH hitters back to back.

We really need a RH bat good enough to bat between Schwarber and Harper and Turner and Bohm have not been that bat. The lineup just works better with a good RH bat because teams can play to deploy their LH relievers against our lineup now.