Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[jimbomill]

If they are looking for a righthanded bad to platoon with Marsh, why not just keep Casty? They are going to pay him whether he plays for the Phillies or someone else.

This is pragmatic. With Casty in the lineup, it is not like we've missed the playoffs the last couple years. Plus, he's been a solid playoff performer.

[bkox]

This is pragmatic. With Casty in the lineup, it is not like we've missed the playoffs the last couple years. Plus, he's been a solid playoff performer.

But hes shown that hes not happy with this. Hes already had at least one altercation with Topper. And then complained in the media about things as well.

If hes comitted to a change in mindset.. im fine with him staying.. if hes gonna be a cancer then no.

[zambonir]

We even made the World Series the year he was just -0.1 WAR. But he was -0.8 WAR last year. If he was actually willing to accept a part-time role, rather than it being forced on him, keeping him around might still be a viable path. But the bridges seem to be burned. Just like they kinda were for Strahm except with a different value situation.

The pragmatism is that they are willing to eat the money to put a better player in that role. It's true he still stepped up at the plate in each of the last two playoffs, but that doesn't mean the Phillies were putting the best team on the field, even if a healthy Bader hadn't done much at the plate (but overall, Nick had like a .250 OBP with those three RBIs, Bader probably would have contributed more). The Phillies also didn't have another RF option (Rojas hurt, Kemp and Wilson never played it). In LF, and with the off-season not over, they do.

The hope is still that the Phillies can shed a few million in cap space, but that won't be possible until most of the other OFs are off the table. I feel like if they actually haven't traded him by February 10 he wouldn't report, because he's already expecting to be traded or released.

[allentown]

This is pragmatic. With Casty in the lineup, it is not like we've missed the playoffs the last couple years. Plus, he's been a solid playoff performer.

That's not pragmatic at all. You can say the part about making post-season as an excuse for everyone on the 26-man roster. Although he has hit well in prior playoff series, last year he was awful. For the year, he had an OPS+ of 88 and his WAR was well below replacement level. You might say he could be a valuable RHB off the bench, but he hasn't been a pinch hitter in Philly. Roster spots are valuable, both 40-man and 26-man. Better to use the spot for a younger player, not a guy entering his age 34 season, after an atrocious year. As said above, He's averaged only an average +0.4 WAR in Philly. I also think the team will improve with him out of the locker room. The manager has bent-over-backward to let him start every game through prolonged slumps. He repays him by stirring a controversy because he was removed in the late innings of a game for a defensive replacement. He argued that he was a good defender. Stats say otherwise. He also thinks he is still a plus hitter. Again, stats say otherwise. He totally lacks self-awareness about his current performance.

[phillychuck]

He totally lacks self-awareness about his current performance.

To be completely fair, this is part of most high-level athletes' makeups.

[andyb]

Casty will move on because there is no opening at DH. Far too much has been made of the conflicts. As has been said, any veteran player losing playing time would likely complain and since Castellanos is a negative defender there is just no place for him (and Kemp is similar with awful defense and adequate offense).

Could Casty go somewhere and be a positive player as a DH? Probably. As a free agent he might have a mini bidding war that could get him a $2 million contract with incentives.. That is probably where this ends up with the Phillies releasing him rather than being able to trade him. It is just not worth all the false controversy of an older player having no realistic role when the DH spot is locked up.

I really am anti any Grichuk move. I get that his better defense would fit a platoon role with Marsh. I am just worried that if the Phillies have too many backup options around Crawford that Crawford will really not get a chance to grow into the position. We already have Rojas. That is enough backup.

[zambonir]

Phillies history - most team's histories really - says it's far more damaging to hang on to a player too long than it is to eat $20 million. We should be happy this team can do that. 12 or 25 years ago he'd be getting 600 ABs again, probably at a young player's expense.

And if the old Nick is still in there somewhere for another season or half-season, he deserves a better chance to find out. More playing time on a lesser team plus, chances to be a DH or even 1B. If it works out he'll get traded to a contender.

Heck, the Phillies are already gambling an additional $10 milllion on a similar and similarly aged player, except Garcia can play the position.

[Lucky_Beagle]

The Phillies and right-hander Jesus Luzardo have avoided arbitration by agreeing to an $11MM salary for the 2026 season, 7News’ Ari Alexander reports.

per mlbtraderumor.com

[andyb]

Glad they got the Luzardo deal done easily. That probably speaks to the potential of signing him long term before he hits free agency. Wrapping that $11 million salary for 2026 into a longer deal would lower the AAV. Question is really whether Luzardo would add 3 years at like $20 million a year now or wait till next season where he might get 5-6 years in a long term deal if he has a good season.

[zambonir]

I gotta think the Grichuk move is only if they don't lock up JT - just upgrading (and spending) on another minor area should they end up with a downgrade at C, whereas they are fine with Kemp or Wilson otherwise.

Now that the Luzardo arbitration contract is locked can it actually be folded into an extension for AAV purposes?

[andyb]

Now that the Luzardo arbitration contract is locked can it actually be folded into an extension for AAV purposes?

1-year arbitration contracts can be wrapped into a longer deal for AAV purposes if the extension is signed before the start of the regular season. Of course it could supersede the contract also if they signed a new deal.

[andyb]

Another AAA catcher signs. A bit better than the last one. Probably compares favorably to Stubbs if they end up losing him.

1/8/25 : Phillies sign Catcher Rene Pinto to minor league contract

[jimbomill]

That's not pragmatic at all. You can say the part about making post-season as an excuse for everyone on the 26-man roster. Although he has hit well in prior playoff series, last year he was awful.

Yep.
And the Phillies won the division by 13 games, it that is the end result for this upcoming season, I vote for Round 2 between him and Topper.

I think it is pragmatic to not pay a player who's on another roster. Your mileage (and bank account) may vary, but when you're in a penalty situation already for your players' salaries, paying a player to be on another roster is what is not pragmatic at all.

[andyb]

If the Phillies did not have both Kemp and Wilson it might be pragmatic to keep Casty as a sunk cost platoon bat. But they have 2 other players that do similar things offensively. So it is not pragmatic to have yet another platoon player who does the same thing and can't really help defensively.

[zambonir]

It's usually known as the sunk cost fallacy, not sunk cost pragramatism.

It's frustrating that they can't get $5 million in salary relief for someone who should be able to put up 1.0 WAR as a platoon DH. But you gotta put more of that on Nick than the Phillies. While I tend to think he is more emotional/honest than calculating, he's the one who took away all of his trade value, and any leverage the Phillies might have had to move him. Probably he did deliberately decide to engineer his release once he realized he'd never play full-time here again. DD hasn't even bothered to pretend otherwise in his own statements (i.e. he's already said it's over, when he could have publicly acted like things could still work out, whether because they actually could or to blow hot air at people who might trade for him).

[Matt_Winkelman]

The Phillies will want the Luzardo extension (if it happens) to not include the 2026 season. Yes it would lower the overall AAV, but it would increase the 2026 AAV which all would be taxed. They will likely want it in the future after the tax numbers change in the CBA and money for Castellanos, Walker, and others are off their books.

[zambonir]

Phillies and Alec Bohm have settled at $10.2 million to avoid arbitration, league sources said. Bohm is a free agent after the 2026 season.

— Matt Gelb ( @mattgelb.bsky.social ) January 8, 2026 at 2:11 PM

[andyb]

I am less certain of that. Higher AAV now would cost more short term money, but since they are going to be way over the CBT line they will almost certainly pay even more money the next couple of seasons (pending a new MLBPA agreement of course). If the new system is similar to the old system one assumes their next opportunity to get under a tax line would be after the Wheeler contract and a lower AAV for Luzardo might help immensely at that time.

The Phillies are more long term planners these days than they used to be.

[Matt_Winkelman]

I think you are overestimating the AAV smoothing. Let's say he gets the Dylan Cease deal, just to make something up, so 7/175. The AAV on that deal is $25M, adding in 2026 it become 8/186 and a $23.5M AAV, but you take 2026 (when they are already in the highest tax bracket) from $11M to $23.5M. Since you are over the tax now that moves that extra $12.5M in AAV to the 110% tax bracket so you are just adding in $13.75M directly into your 2026 cash. By not doing that you give the chance that it is less punitive, maybe your costs go down because Painter, Crawford, and Miller are contributors on minimum deals, Wheeler's deal comes off the books, or other things that maybe take that to being taxed at a different rate. Even if we assume it is all the same it is difference between adding $13.75M in penalty this year vs $1.65M per year for 7 years.

[julio]

Other arbitration agreements:

Phillies and Jhoan Duran have settled at $7.5 million to avoid arbitration, league sources said.

— Matt Gelb ( @mattgelb.bsky.social ) January 8, 2026 at 2:15 PM

Other Phillies arbitration agreements, according to league sources:

--Jesus Luzardo: $11 million
--Tanner Banks: $1.2 million

They are signed for 2026. Luzardo can be a free agent after the season; Banks was arbitration-eligible for the first time and is controllable through '28.

— Scott Lauber (@scottlauber.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 2:25 PM