Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[zambonir]

They already traded Harry Ford

[Patchmk88]

Is Garcia really an above average fielder though? He had the best defensive season of his career since he was 28 last year, and the year before he was negative in DRS. He's obviously better than Casty but I'm not sure he's as good as his numbers showed last year.

[zambonir]

He's definitely above average. Maybe not as elite as that amazing DRS. But he was still coming off injury in '24. If he's only a 1 WAR player that's still a two-win upgrade from RF, without any additional offense. And his exit velocity is still strong. Definitely the third-best raw power on the team in a way neither the aging Nick, nor Bohm, can provide.

I'd like a better player but that RHB pool is just so thin. A better hitter is probably not as good a defender. And Bader might not even be a better hitter.

[andyb]

Last year is probably a bit of an outlier for Garcia as was 2024 in the negative direction. But every other full season has been positive so overall he does grade out as better than average. Castellanos was the worst in the league though so we will see improvement there. A Marsh-Crawford-Garcia outfield has lots of potential where the weak spot is the one player with the most physical talent and youth to improve.

[EDmuch]

So the Phils are done with their outfield reconstruction? Ok , I am disappointed, but I understand.

[zambonir]

I wouldn't say they are done-done, just done with the three primary starting OFs. The 4th and 5th spots are currently Kemp and Rojas, plus Wilson. If they trade Bohm Kemp would not be an OF. And in almost any scenario they still need a LHB off the bench.

But they have to sign JT before they consider any more spending (or trades).

[saycheese]

That is the issue I have, yes he will improve the defense, but the offense has been more our issue the past two years. The press conference yesterday was a disaster in my opinion. To say you are done with just about everywhere but catcher. And your eggs are in a 35 yr old catcher who is showing a decline especially offensively. Just makes no sense. To think that players like Garcia who are going to play at age 33 next year and suddenly going to find the fountain of youth and produce like they did 3 years ago is just as short sighted. Will Bryce have a healthy season, will Turner have the same year as last year, How about Schwarber? He gonna hit 250 with another 50+ home runs. Probably not, he will regress to the mean a little bit. Which is fine. But where are you going to make up those numbers? Its not like we have many players coming into or are in their primes. (probably Bohm and Stott are it). Wheeler is no sure thing for the opening day, Ranger is gone. This team looks like a .500 team to me right now. If everything breaks perfectly, they could win 90 plus but we know that never happens.

[owaistabish]

Keller to Phillies. 2 years $22 million

[zambonir]

That is the issue I have, yes he will improve the defense, but the offense has been more our issue the past two years. T

But has it really? They were 4th in MLB in OPS (and also 4th in the two separate components). 8th in runs. 2nd in batting average. 7th in OPS with RISP, 3rd with runners on.

Sure, they did not come up with enough big hits in October, but that really is luck and timing, not something signing one player over or another, or even coaching, fixes.

The regression of the stars is a concern, but most of us thought 2024's 95-win team was headed for 88 or 90 wins last year.

[zambonir]

Wow. See, don't believe anything Dombrowski says!

[andyb]

Dombrowski said he doesn't view the bullpen as a need. Likes the five vets and thinks the final spots should go to competition of younger players.

Well, maybe I was right about this....

I just thought the bullpen was still thin and down from where it was a year or two ago. Kellar definitely fills a need. Whether last year was an outlier is the big question.

[zambonir]

I wonder if this means they really are going to try and trade one of the LH relievers though

[andyb]

Not much LH reliever depth in the minors. We just signed a bunch of AAA relievers (see Matt's post in winter ball thread) but all are right-handed. Walling did not get selected in the rule 5 so he is still around but needs to get to AAA. Mayza is a free agent and it might be great to have him around for depth if he can be had on a minor league deal. Certainly if they dealt Strahm they would want additional depth.

[saycheese]

Oh don't get me wrong I still see even after the Keller move the bullpen as a need, but I just said what Dombrowski said. Of course I shouldn't have listen to what he said.

[zambonir]

You can't have eight high-end relievers. Even four is a lot. You just hope one or two of them are young and cheap and ascend, which Banks did here or there last year, and Kerkering didn't.

If you assume either Walker or the Rule 5 guy is the #8 they're loaded now. Duran, Alvarado/Keller, Strahm/Kerkering, Banks. That only leaves one spot if they don't trade someone, which you'd pencil in as Johnson since he's out of options. Or he doesn't make the team and it's someone else. And if Walker spends April in the rotation he'll still end up there, though that still doesn't seem ideal for him or the Phillies.

[andyb]

FWIW this site really likes our rule 5 pick.

TJStats - A Rule 5 Draft Review

[allentown]

Do we think Casty will be released rather than traded? That seems sub-optimal, but it’s not my money, of course.

Casty can only be traded to our advantage if at least two teams have significant interest in acquiring him. Otherwise, everyone will wait for the Phillies to release him and then try to make a deal with him. This costs them no talent and just MLB minimum salary.

[Docs]

Or if someone is afraid he won’t sign with them if he has a choice.

[allentown]

But 2024 was his only negative dWAR season. It looks like a fluke, for whatever reason, perhaps injury.

[zambonir]

Price of success

Phillies are losing assistant GM Ani Kilambi to Washington Nationals, who are hiring him as GM, as Jeff Passan reported. Kilambi oversaw club’s R&D department. He’ll be one of the youngest GMs in baseball.

— Matt Gelb ( @mattgelb.bsky.social ) December 17, 2025 at 5:59 PM