Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[Jazzhead]

Since Brent Rooker of the A's appears unlikely,

I like Brent Rooker a lot, but what I especially like is Brent Rooker's contract. Something like $60-90 million over the next five years. Then invest the net $60 - 90 million saved on Schwarber to sign Bader and Ranger. If Rooker can play left, then DH Bryce and sign a hot shot to play first.

Rooker would, of course, take prospects and I'd be willing to dangle Painter.

[zambonir]

Rooker can't really play left though. He'd probably be Casty-level bad if he did full-time.

The money saved on Rooker versus Schwarber is entirely earned, i.e. he is exactly that much less of a player. And he's not young. And also probably not available. But if he was, I want him on the same team as Schwarber. I think I'd put up with both of them as platoon LF/DH for that kind of pop. But then you've also traded Crawford, among others.

There aren't really that many great 1Bs or DHs out there anyway. I'd rather have Schwarber than any of them including Alonso. Anyway, if you really want to add another guy who can't field, the move would be to put Bryce back in RF. He's a better 1B than Alonso or Hoskins and a better OF than Schwarber or Rooker (low bar).

Bader has also been a pretty poor hitter for the three years before this one. Has he unlocked something sustainable at age 32? Probably not. We already have some inkling of this just from his time in Philadelphia:

352/.410/.544 in his first 37 games with the Phils, but with a .476 BBIP.

In his last 13 games, 192/.236/.269 with a BABIP of .265.

Obviously neither as good nor as bad as those numbers. He's a nice complementary player with good defense. But so is Marsh, and so probably is Crawford. In a perfect world Bader platoons with one of them but he's looking for more money and playing time than that.

[dcsman]

Turner to the OF and bring in Bo Bichette?

[zambonir]

Um

https://archive.fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard

That probably didn't render right but Bichette was the worst SS in all of MLB with -12 DRS. Turner was +2 and among the 20 best (and I think he was more like top 5 in other categories).

He ain't moving and nobody's gonna ask him to.

[andyb]

Turner to the OF only works if his SS play has slipped AND you determine Miller is not a SS. Otherwise why do it now spending resources to do something you can solve in house in the future.

[mdougherty12]

Rooker can't really play left though. He'd probably be Casty-level bad if he did full-time.

I think Brent Rooker is likely a good bit worse than Castellanos defensively in the OF. Statcast has Rooker at -18 Outs Above Average (OAA) in 1145 innings played in LF and RF (scattered over 6 seasons). Castellanos was at -12 OAA in 1208 innings in 2025 and -8 OAA in 1364 innings in 2024.

Beyond the defensive issues, Rooker turns 31 in a couple of weeks, and he only has the one really great offensive season (2024) surrounded by a couple of good years (~125 OPS+ in 2023 and 2025).

[DurhamBull]

Bader has also been a pretty poor hitter for the three years before this one. Has he unlocked something sustainable at age 32? Probably not.

Yeah, Bader just had his career year (offensively, at least) and is on the wrong side of 30 to expect that to repeat. One never knows; Carlos Santana had his career year at age 33 (the year after he left the Phils ‍♂️) but the odds are (heavily, IMO) against Bader repeating that kind of offensive success.

I'm glad Bader was on the Phils this season, and I wish him well. If a team gives him a 2-4 year contract that pays him like they expect a continuation of 2025 performance, I hope it's not the Phillies.

[zambonir]

Bader has to cash in if he can. He was on waivers as recently as 2023 (going from Yankees to Reds) and his last two contracts were $10.5 million (Mets) and $6.25 million (Twins), with the latter also going up to around $10 million due to the incentives and buyout. But he probably doesn't really deserve much more in AAV, and incentives would also still be a good idea on the team side since he probably still fits best as a 3-400 AB guy (not a strict platoon, but not facing RHP all the time either). I would overpay him a little on a two-year deal or hold firm on a lower number for three (four, no thanks).

If both sides really want to make it happen there's probably a path, he's an East Coast guy, clearly enjoys the big stage and won't necessarily inspire another big-money team to overpay for him either.

[andyb]

Bader is an ideal candidate for a vesting deal with extra years based upon plate appearances. If he can't get 3 years he can probably get 2 plus a 3rd vesting on something like 400 plate appearances. He won't really make enough to employ the tack on an extra year for a lower AAV strategy. $12-$15 million AAV range sounds about right. It will be more than $10 million.

Bader is no stranger to incentives either. He actually made all his plate appearance incentives (the Phillies were good to get him to 501 that last week) and had a trade bonus so he got to $8.25 last year.

[zambonir]

I think Brent Rooker is likely a good bit worse than Castellanos defensively in the OF. Statcast has Rooker at -18 Outs Above Average (OAA) in 1145 innings played in LF and RF (scattered over 6 seasons). Castellanos was at -12 OAA in 1208 innings in 2025 and -8 OAA in 1364 innings in 2024.

And that was the stat I was thinking of for SS.

Turner: 17 OAA, #4 in MLB

Bichette: - 13 OAA, last (37) in MLB

Bichette is young and was hurt year before this one so I'm sure he has better in him but if you really wanted him he's probably your 3B (and they'll certainly consider Bregman too if they're serious about spending at the Dodgers/Mets level. Which is to say, I only consider either of those guys after I've already gotten Schwarber and JT back).

[xyzabc25]

Roster 2026
Trea Turner SS
Bryce Harper 1B
Alex Bregman 3B
Kyle Schwarber DH
J.T. Realmuto C
Bryson Stott 2B
Harrison Bader CF
Justin Crawford LF
Marsh/Wilson RF
Miller (Sept.)
Rotation
Christopher Sanchez
Jesus Luzardo
Aaron Nola
Taijuan Walker
Walker Buehler
Andrew Painter (June/July)
Zach Wheeler
Bullpen
Johan Duran
Matt Strahm
Tanner Banks
Departures
Nick Castellanos
Alec Bohm
Orion Kerkering
Ranger Surez
Aidan Miller (Sept.)

[zambonir]

You forgot Alvarado. I would not let Kerkering go, especially with all the money you want to spend on bats. It would not bother me if they did spend that kind of money but not how they've operated so far. In 2027 they'll be clear of Casty (who they are paying a lot to no matter where he plays) and Walker (though they'll also have to re-sign or replace Luzardo).

I imagine that if the Phillies didn't see Buehler as being worth using in the playoffs (limited though the spots were) they don't see him as being worth a contract, but I guess that depends what he's looking for. Spencer Turnbull money, sure. But he still got $21 million last year after a bad 2024.

[xyzabc25]

Kerkering should stay. I'm hoping the Bohm trade will help the bullpen.

[andyb]

That adds like $120 million in salary all going to over 30 age players. Schwarber, Bregman, JT, Bader, Buehler. We are already at $246 million in commitments so going past $360 million completely on older players seems ill-advised to me. And it still does not add to the bullpen at all.

Cot's spreadsheet here. They fill in arbitration estimates and minimum salaried players (so bringing back JT would be the cost of the contract but subtract a minimum salary). Trading Bohm will save most of his $10 million but trading Castellanos probably saves little.

MLB Philadelphia 26

[David_Criss]

Who are your trading Castellanos and Bohm to? Will have to send at least $15,000,000 to go with Castellanos. He is no longer a $20,000,000 a year player.

[zambonir]

Someone is going to take Nick for $5 million. As a DH or platoon OF, he's worth that. You just won't get much back in return either.

Bohm is trickier. What you get for him plus what you do with his $10 million plus how you actually fill 3B has to actually be worth subtracting him from the line-up. But it's certainly doable.

It's not unlike Cesar Hernandez, who the Phillies couldn't or wouldn't trade for several years, and just non-tendered him. He was actually missed too! Bohm probably has more perceived value even though Cesar was a more productive WAR player overall, including in that last season.

[BostonRoss]

If they couldn’t trade Bohm for something they wanted after a 3 WAR year, how can they get anything worthwhile after a 1.3 WAR season?

[zambonir]

I think they were really swinging for the fences when they shopped him last year, to mix the metaphor since they wanted pitching. They basically wanted someone like Luzardo for him, but obviously Bohm's age and salary wouldn't have fit the Marlins. Seattle laughed at them when they asked for Gilbert or Kirby. They also supposedly asked the A's for Mason Miller.

Now? A LH bench bat who could platoon at 3B (a LH Sosa or Wilson, in other words), a depth starter or a middle reliever would all be fine. As would a couple of middle level prospects. But they need a pretty clear plan for life without him and Casty in the line-up too.

Of course if they were serious about having the money to sign Bregman (on top of the two current FAs), just shedding the $10 million for Bohm and $5 million for Nick would be its own reward. Add on Kepler being gone and you're almost there (though Schwarber's getting a big raise to of course).

[BostonRoss]

I don’t think Bohm has a long term future with the Phillies. But unless they bring in a big hitting 3B, I think he’s perfectly serviceable and economical for another year.

[zambonir]

Agreed. If they are eating most of Nick's salary, that is where they will also upgrade the RH bat in the line-up. Bohm is a perfectly nice guy to have hitting 6-8, just not 4th or 5th.

But if they bring back Bader, 3B is really the only other spot to try and get more power and OBP. Bohm and Bader are fairly similar hitters (some power but not a ton, gets on base by making contact not walking).