Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[phillychuck]

Not saying to give up, just it’s too hard to win championships to make them the only metric of success. We have that debate in every sport. I’m fine with winning teams and putting yourself in position to get the breaks occasionally. It’s not the era of the Ruth/Gehrig/etc Yankees ... and we have a dynasty team already in the NL. Just try to make the best team you can, and put yourself in a position to get fortunate.

And, honestly, with the age of our core talent, we will be lucky to compete after a year or two. Better hope Miller is the next Cal Ripken.

[zambonir]

There are reasons the Dodgers were able to weather tons of injuries and still win the ring (and no, it is not just luck).

A lot of it was money though. The Dodgers' golden of age of internal development during this era saw them come up short year after year, with the COVID season the only exception, and their story in '22 and '23 was pretty much our story in '24 and '25. Not that I wouldn't take Andrew Friedman over Dombrowski. We've hired off his family tree quite a bit, some better (Fuld, the current assistant GM who came from Tampa) than others (Kapler).

I think/hope things are moving in the right direction. Many things have. The damage that Gillick (when he took over for one year and hired Almaraz) and MacPhail/Klentak did really set them back another 5-10 years developmentally. Dombrowski has done a good job with what he inherited and a good job finding a balance between win-now and future. Would we have done better either of the last two years (or even in '23) if they'd been more willing to sell the (still-limited) farm? And clearly Middleton is never going to match Cohen as a super-rich guy or Walter as a financial innovator; nothing about the investors he's brought in suggests that will change.

But no franchise is perfect (see also the Yankees and the Braves. And the Mets! And the Cubs!). Phillies are a top 5 organization right now and might have made or even won the World Series had a few things broken differently this last year. I think most fans actually knew that, they weren't nearly as upset by the '25 teams as the '24 team (a team which also bore the burden of looking like it could win 110 games for a while).

Sure, we'd like Dombrowski to magically shed the Walker and Casty contracts or trade Bohm for something really great, but that's a lot to ask. He still gets credit for Luzardo and Duran and Bader last year, all very savvy, successful and not odious deals. But now, trading Crawford or Miller is probably the only way to move the needle this off-season. Or one of Marsh/Stott, but it better be a really good deal.

Even spending to the Dodgers' level just means taking on the next Casty or Walker in a few years, when the Harper and Turner and possibly Schwarber contracts will also be tricky. They're already spending big-time. Even signing Garcia for $10 million has a real cost of $19.5. Which also makes it easier to see why Bader at $15M was a hard thing to swallow.

[Austinfan]

I think it's the 3 year term that was hard to swallow with Bader.
Next year they shed Casty and Walker so more breathing room.
That should allow them to extend Luzardo.

But it would help a lot if 2026, Crawford and Miller have become mainstays, Rincones is part of a RF platoon, and Escobar and Nori are in AAA, knocking on the door.

[phillychuck]

I’m afraid Rincones doesn’t make enough contact to be a multi-WAR ML player. Maybe he’ll get better, but I wouldn’t count on it, even in a platoon. I believe in Crawford offensively, hope he can become a decent defender. That’s on his work ethic and the Phils’ instruction. Miller I just don’t know. There is a lot of variability in his projection to the big leagues. I see his upside as Cal Ripken, who I’ve mentioned. Let’s hope he approaches that level of performance.

[andyb]

I think it's the 3 year term that was hard to swallow with Bader.
Next year they shed Casty and Walker so more breathing room.
That should allow them to extend Luzardo.

But it would help a lot if 2026, Crawford and Miller have become mainstays, Rincones is part of a RF platoon, and Escobar and Nori are in AAA, knocking on the door.

The 3-year deal for Bader is less of an impediment than the likelhood that last year was an outlier and he is just not as good as the contract suggests he can be. And we have a potential replacement in Crawford.

Not sure why you keep penciling in Rincones and Nori. They just don't project as regulars at this stage. Miller does and that is important. Everyone else including Escobar has serious questions.

Remember again, it is not your money. Billionaire owners don't want to eat a contract like Castellanos but they will if they have to. It is really the Wheeler contract that throws us into the stratosphere. Everything else is manageable for a wealthy owner.

[Jazzhead]

Winning division crowns, year after year, should be the goal. That means a new flag will fly over the Bank each year.

The playoffs merely determine the color of the flag. And to that end, the team is playing with house money.

Sure, I'd love to see the Phils do better in the playoffs, but the team's current emphasis on starter depth in order to have the best shot at lining up well for a short series is the best way to go. (Hint, hint - resign Ranger)

[zambonir]

Even with us, Bader started slow and finished slow. A conscious cherry-pick (of the exact games where his numbers began to rise/fall), but:

August 1 to August 22, 16 games (13 starts) .196 BA, .597 OPS, 1 HR, 4 RBI.

August 23 to September 13: 21 games (17 starts), .443 BA, 1.179 OPS, 3 HR, 11 RBI.

September 14 on, 13 games (13 starts), .192 BA, .506 OPS, 1 HR, 1 RBI.

Not only was his BABIP .354 on the season, it was .426 in the second half (so, his last two weeks in Minny and all his time with us).

[phillychuck]

I think Nori might be pretty good. Remember, he was a HS draftee and is just finishing his first full year in professional ball. His lifetime MiLB BB rate is 13%, which is great. He K’s less than 15% of the time. He’s already in AA. He projects to be a major leaguer in a year or two.

[allentown]

With that, now they are paying 30 million next year for Castellanos and Garcia, who offensively are pretty much identical. At least Garcia can field.

I'm not that negative. Both Castellanos and Garcia were bad the second half of last season, but Casty was quite a bit worse. For the year, Garcia with a 93 OPS+ , and better against LHP, with Castellanos at 88 OPS+ and worse against LHP than RHP. (in what seemed an aberration year). Garcia was a 2.7 bWAR player last year. I view the return to 2023 as an impossible dream, but if he has just a one-year deal and can give 2.7 WAR that is a fair contract and he costs us only $.

I was very pleased to read of this signing, because it allays my fear that DD would actually trade something of value for the chance to pay Robert $29 mill. That would have been a truly awful move.

[andyb]

Not saying Nori can't be good. I am just looking at his age and tools and we might be getting a 700 OPS CF with average defense at best. He just does not scream first division regular with his tools. He is 21 already so he is more physically developed already than most HS picks. There are some decent tools to build on, but without more power it is just hard to project him at this point as a regular part of the lineup.

As with all prospects we'll see how he does. But right now he looks more 4th OF than starter in his projection.

[allentown]

As the number of wins in the regular season have increased, the less effective the team's results have been in the playoffs.

2022: 87 wins, lost WS
2023: 90 wins, lost NLCS
2024 & 2025: 95 & 96 wins, lost NLDS

I'd definitely give up 96 win seasons to win a ring during the Harper era.*

That was the exact same pattern as in the past golden age, although that eam topped out at 102 regular season wins.

I'll be honest: I'd love to see this team win a WS, but in 2022 I saw the team go to WS and got to watch them play the last baseball game of that season. Happier had they won, but 2022 was a great ride. The past two seasons have been plus-olus regular seasons and disappointing playoffs. Those are still fun seasons for me as a fan.

Also to be totally honest, I don't see anything DD can do this off-season to yield even a 20% chance at a championship. Probably only 20% chance of reaching WS if DD has a plus off-season. Also, I'm realistic on Castellanos -- I won't blame him if he saves next to no $ and gets next to zero talent return for him. I think 50% odds he is simply released and we pay whole salary. I do blame DD (quite a lot, actually) for signing Castellanos after a truly outlier of a contract year (and I harbor PED doubts about that year) and giving him such a costly 5-year deal. That was a terrible signing).

I also don't get the big deal of needing a championship with Harper. We came close. I don't think Harper is owed that. I don't think fans are owed that. I definitely know that I am not owed that.

[dcsman]

I wonder how much, if any, having the All-Star game in Philly this year will contribute to how much Middleton & ownership are willing to spend.

[zambonir]

Well, they certainly don't need to sell tickets. They can't even accommodate all the partial season ticketholders (there's going to be a lottery) and probably very few public on-sale seats. The whole game is put on by MLB not the Phillies, in terms of sponsorship money and whatnot. Obviously we'd all like to see five or six Phillies on the team but we've already got five or six guys who either were or should have been All-Stars the last two seasons. And you certainly can't go giving Kyle Tucker $400 million just for that reason.

[saycheese]

Not feeling this Garcia signing even a little bit. One of the worst OBP in all of baseball last year. Which for me is a big stat because this team is so vulnerable to offensive slumps. You can't steal first base, walks and hits get you there. 19 home runs isn't really that much in my opinion. He is not the player he was in 2023, his decline has been evident over the past two years. I just don't understand why they think this player for 10 million plus incentives that could bring it up to 15 million is the right fit. I get the defense and he is a substantial upgrade in that category (just about anyone would be over Castellanos) but offensively as bad as Castellanos was, this guy is a downgrade. Plus at this point there is a good chance they are eating the 20 million from Castellanos so basically we are paying 30 million next year for at best an even guy in RF.

Plus there is the history of these one year deals with Dombrowski. None of them work out. I think Matt Strahm might have been his best one year guy that he then gave a contract to.

I just don't get it. Why can't this guy pull of a trade to get a solid outfielder in here. You can't buy your way to improving your team all the time. Sometimes you have to make trades. Get me that 27 year old who is coming off a bad year last year who has upside over a 33yr old (and since he is from Cuba that may not even be his real age) over this any day of the week.

[BostonRoss]

One thing we need to remember is that Arlington is very much a pitchers' park. Though Garcia was as bad on the road as he was at home last season, they year before he was better on the road. His numbers might bounce back a bit just moving to a better hitters' park.

I'd much rather have seen Garcia running from second base on that bunt than Castellanos...

[phillychuck]

Not saying Nori can't be good. I am just looking at his age and tools and we might be getting a 700 OPS CF with average defense at best. He just does not scream first division regular with his tools. He is 21 already so he is more physically developed already than most HS picks. There are some decent tools to build on, but without more power it is just hard to project him at this point as a regular part of the lineup.

As with all prospects we'll see how he does. But right now he looks more 4th OF than starter in his projection.

Not saying it’s certain, but Nori will be 21 all season next year in AA, which is an almost meteoric rise through the system, and he certainly has the potential to be a good MLB outfielder. I think it’s most likely he’s used in a trade, but I hope not and I hope he hits his ceiling.

[zambonir]

Plus at this point there is a good chance they are eating the 20 million from Castellanos so basically we are paying 30 million next year for at best an even guy in RF.

Plus there is the history of these one year deals with Dombrowski. None of them work out. I think Matt Strahm might have been his best one year guy that he then gave a contract to.

I just don't get it. Why can't this guy pull of a trade to get a solid outfielder in here. You can't buy your way to improving your team all the time. Sometimes you have to make trades. Get me that 27 year old who is coming off a bad year last year

$40 million if you include the tax hit.

Strahm has actually never signed a one-year deal, his first contract was for two, and his next one was for one + one vesting (which it did, the current deal).

So you want Luis Robert? (Genuinely asking, didn't know if you were being theoretical or referencing that particular 27 - now 28 - year-old.) But regardless, we don't have a ton to trade, and even less for someone with fewer warts than Robert.

I don't necessarily think they are done, but you pretty much have to trade Marsh, Bohm or Stott to do anything big, and Bohm doesn't get you very much. I would think they could actually trade Walker for 50 cents on the dollar but they kind of need him. We'll see if they are really in on any of the Japanese players. Imai is only 27 and would cost less than Ranger in taxable money so you can see why they'd want him, just as they basically have chosen to try and extend the younger Luzardo over re-signing Ranger.

[zambonir]

The scarcity of righty-hitting outfielders was evident earlier in the offseason, when the Orioles traded a pitcher with four years of team control (Grayson Rodriguez) to the Angels for Taylor Ward, a corner outfielder entering his last year before free agency.

García ranks 10th among all righty-hitting outfielders with 44 homers over the last two seasons.

Source: Phillies finalizing one-year, $10 million deal with outfielder Adolis...

This story says the Phillies are still interested in Bader, And that Phillies were offering either an OF or a reliever to try and work trade/shave payroll. Can't imagine the former meant Casty. I'm still kind of fascinated/baffled that they might dump Strahm or Alvarado w/o an alternative making the same money.

[BostonRoss]

Regarding expectations, I think we tend to be more disappointed with not winning championships when the team is so good in the regular season. We all recognize that winning a few more regular season games doesn’t mean much in the playoffs, though.

I note that the Phillies teams with the most regular season wins have never won it all. Of the seven teams that won 95 or more games, only the 1993 team (97 wins) even made it to the World Series. And they beat the 104 win Braves to get there, only to lose to the 95 win Blue Jays.

But most of those good Phillies teams were really close to advancing further than they did. The 2011 Phillies needed another two runs against the Cardinals. And 1977…well, the person who made the biggest difference then wasn’t even a player. The 2025 Phillies were so close to sending their series to Game 5.

[Austinfan]

He's got plus speed and good instincts, no reason he shouldn't be a plus CF in his 20s.
If he can field, anything above .700 OPS is a valuable CF.
Heck, Rojas at .650 is a 2-3 WAR player.