Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[RolenRules]

That strategy hasn't worked out for the Pirates recently.

[zambonir]

No but it works great for teams like the Phillies. The teams dumping the younger guys aren't the ones getting better.

[bkox]

Kyle Schwarber comes in 2nd for NL MVP with 23 of 30 2nd place votes.

Trea Turner comes in 5th with one 3rd place vote

[zambonir]

Who won? (just kidding)

[zambonir]

Schwarbs remains Phillies top priority. ("The Phillies are willing to wait; they consider Schwarber essential to the entire operation.")

But, interesting, and not the first time I've seen it written: they might be willing to trade Strahm or Alvarado (or Banks), and teams are asking about all of them. That would presumably lead to them getting a new RHP with either the saved money or via trade.

What I’m hearing about the Phillies: Schwarber’s free agency, trade market,...

Also says Ranger is all but gone, and suggests they will have to go after another Turnbull type (though Dombrowski didn't even confirm that. Said rotation is not priority, but they need depth.)

[andyb]

I think Gelb was much more referring to Strahm. Banks is cheap and Alvarado might not be tradeable to a team that does not know him well. Strahm could also be regressing as he ages. He clearly knows how to pitch and there is deception in his delivery, but he also throws hittable strikes at times that might be less effective at 91-92 than at 94-95.

[zambonir]

For sure, I think he wrote that when they picked up Alvarado's option too. I guess the logic is that Strahm is pushed down to the 7th inning now, and Banks seems capable of rising in the pecking order, but they'd better be right about Jose to do that. And how much value will another team give the Phillies to try and squeeze one more good year out of Strahm?

[EDmuch]

I think Strahm has reached his exparation date. If we could get something of value for him, I would pull the trigger

[andyb]

And how much value will another team give the Phillies to try and squeeze one more good year out of Strahm?

Probably a better prospect than we'll get for Castellanos. The Phillies do seem to be signaling that the Phillies need to rebuild their farm system as they proceed into the next era. Right now we have 3 good prospects who may all graduate this year and really not too much behind them.

We spent a couple of years really not drafting any pitching after Painter and now we are seeing that lack of depth come up. AF wants us to add some low cost productive relievers. I want that too. We are just not drafting and developing them.

[zambonir]

We can get a better return on just about anybody besides Castellanos. Maybe even Walker. Though Walker may well be right back where he was, especially if Wheeler need a few weeks or a month.

Would Strahm fetch a better return than Alvarado? Probably. Cheaper, less unpredictable.

Than Banks? Maybe not though you might be more likely to trade Banks for major league help (to a team that wants to unload their own $7 or 9 million reliever) than a system restock. But he's one of the few cheap controllable (if not young) arms they have.

They could get back some further-off prospects for Bohm, probably Rojas. But in the former case they have to be pretty confident Miller steps in mid-season, or they'll need to sign a LH utility bat.

[RolenRules]

"AF wants us to add some low cost productive relievers. I want that too."

It warms my heart when you and AF agree on something!

[andyb]

We disagree on whether the minor league system is developing them unfortunately. Not much has surfaced since Kerkering.

[zambonir]

Well, we'll have some more data on that when the Rule 5 list comes out I guess. If anyone is protected at least it says the Phillies think they can help (or would be lost because they can help).

But it would be nice to find another older cheaper productive arm. It's a bit of a throw guys against the wall situation, but didn't happen last year (versus Belatti '22, Hoffman '23, Ruiz '24). Instead, Romano, Ross and even Ruiz himself were all busts at higher prices (albeit less so in Ruiz's case).

I guess it's a sink-or-swim year for Johnson. The other guys already on the 40 (Robert, Mercado, Lazar) still seem fungible.

[Austinfan]

It's one thing to pay for quality, but they've been paying top dollar ($7-10M) for middle RPs, bigger money for back of the rotation starters, and marginal starting players. That adds up and prevents signing one or two high WAR FAs or extending key players early.

You need to find starters in the first rd/top dollar LA signings and bench players/marginal starters in the rest of your top ten picks/volume LA signings. They haven't done a good job of that for a long time - maybe they need to do some self-scouting of their scouting department and bring in some new blood.

[zambonir]

It's one thing to pay for quality, but they've been paying top dollar ($7-10M) for middle RPs, bigger money for back of the rotation starters, and marginal starting players.

Well, they haven't intentionally been been doing that in the bullpen. They pay top dollar for late inning relievers only, they just haven't always worked out, But Strahm has been worth every penny. Alvarado would have been had he not been suspended. Seranthony still would have been had they kept him. Hoffman was cheap. Romano's the only bust and even he was a $10-12 million arm they got for less due his injury. Robertson was overpaid but prorated that was still the Alvarado money, at the end of the day.

As for the other guys, if you sign FAs for four-five years you're gonna get burned on a few of them But it is hardly a tragedy that they couldn't give out a few new ones while waiting to shed Casty and Walker, and there haven't actually been any position players worth extending (nor starting pitcher who'd take one).

Of course they still need to draft and sign and develop better, and the jury is certainly still out on Barber. Bohm and Stott weren't even his picks. And Ranger and Nola were both Amaro-era. But I think they've changed the blood several times. The black hole of the MacPhail years still loom.