Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[zambonir]

Yeah, $15 million of Casty's salary is probably right and return won't be much of anything unless another flawed overpaid player is coming back. Him being traded or released seems to be a done deal already, per the reporting/team sources so far.

Walker, I dunnno. They might just want him around. He wasn't great but he still put up 1.5 WAR and you're already paying him, versus throwing another $4 million at the next Joe Ross or Spencer Turnbull (especially if you get the 2025 version). I could also see another team believing he might have another 2023-type year in him if he stops bouncing between starting and the pen. He could be tradeable, but probably more like 33% at most (since he makes less than Nick) and still negligible return.

[phillychuck]

I think Walker is more valuable around baseball than we think given the contract offers to less viable pitchers. Keep him or trade him for value, don’t just give him away.

[zambonir]

No doubt. He was 117th in WAR, same as Imanaga (whom the Cubs just dumped because he made too much money), and Brad Keller, and ahead of the likes of Sonny Gray and David Petersen.

But he still had kind of an underlyingly bad year (FIP and WHIP) and poor finish (6.14 ERA in September, 4.55 second half versus 3.55 first half). Definitely a good guy to have around for depth if you're the Phillies or the #5 starter on a bad team, but still not that valuable. Losing more of his salary is worth more than getting a better return for him (which would just be two lottery tickets versus one at most).

[fish]

I guess the good news is you don't really need another starting-caliber OF in that scenario. Marsh/Bader/Crawford with a couple of bench guys is fine

Feels like an outfield that, by July, everyone is saying "we really need to improve the outfield".

[DurhamBull]

I guess the good news is you don't really need another starting-caliber OF in that scenario. Marsh/Bader/Crawford with a couple of bench guys is fine

Feels like an outfield that, by July, everyone is saying "we really need to improve the outfield".

Yes and no. That should be an excellent defensive outfield, and I think the idea is that by going cheap-ish on the outfield, the team can afford big bats elsewhere that make up for the lack of OF offense.

[zambonir]

If Bader regresses or Crawford is a Rojas-like bust, yeah. But if you're getting 30 more HRs and almost 100 more OPS at 3B (Suarez over Bohm) you've replaced the production Castellanos was no longer providing, just at a different position. And you've kept Bader's elite defense and possible upside.

And if it's not Marsh/Bader/Crawford and you're not signing Tucker or Bellinger, I'm not sure the third piece is going to be any better. Even Adell, for instance, might not be. Still has a career OPS below .700 and was injured enough to go on the 60 in both 2023 and 2024. Not that Bader isn't the same. One plays defense, one hits home runs.

[andyb]

Who says no if we offer Castellanos plus a couple of second tier prospects for Mike Trout and at least $80 million of his contract paid off? This would be a scenario where we don't sign Schwarber, but having Trout at $15-$20 million year as a primary DH might keep him on the field more often (and solve the right-handed power question). 5 years and a little more than $185 million left on his deal, so $80 million plus Casty knocks that down to about $85 million left.

How did Mike Trout, the best baseball player of his generation, fade away?

[Philsmania]

Who says no if we offer Castellanos plus a couple of second tier prospects for Mike Trout and at least $80 million of his contract paid off? This would be a scenario where we don't sign Schwarber, but having Trout at $15-$20 million year as a primary DH might keep him on the field more often (and solve the right-handed power question). 5 years and a little more than $185 million left on his deal, so $80 million plus Casty knocks that down to about $85 million left.

How did Mike Trout, the best baseball player of his generation, fade away?

Last winter, a buddy of mine and I kicked around the idea of Casty & Walker for Trout. Casty & Walker's money for one season was roughly equal to Trout's for one season. The Phillies would get Trout, the Angels would get out of (at the time) all but two years of Trout's contract.

[Austinfan]

Harper is not an OF anymore. 1B or DH, and more valuable at 1B.

[zambonir]

It is not the optimal alignment, but he's still probably a better OF than Castellanos, Schwarber, Wilson or Kemp.

Or Teoscar Hernandez. Or Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto, who were both just as bad as Nick last year per OAA.

Adell was -4. Tucker was -2. For the right 1B or DH, the net value of that guy's offense plus Harper's offense probably exceeds the defensive loss.

[zambonir]

Murphy with the pros and cons of Bader, though the nice thing about the cons is maybe he really won't get a giant offer. He seems to be implying that Bader's injury history made his unavailability in October somewhat predictable, which is maybe a stretch but no question you have to consider his floor more strongly than his ceiling (especially when his bat had already vanished late in the regular season too).

Harrison Bader could (should?) be Phillies' first free agent puzzle piece |...

Bader sure didn’t look like the bargain-basement journeyman type that Phillies fans thought they were getting when Dave Dombrowski acquired him at the trade deadline to be the team’s much-needed right-handed bat. Not only did he bring a rare combination of line-drive power, center field defense, and dugout energy, Bader looked like a guy who should be playing regularly on a contender.

Projecting Bader’s fair market value is easier said than done. He reached 500 plate appearances for the first time in his career this season. Last year, he saw 437 plate appearances but faded badly down the stretch, posting a .513 OPS after the All-Star break.

Injuries have plagued Bader. In 2023, he spent 71 days on the injured list with soft-tissue injuries. In 2022, he missed 85 days with plantar fasciitis. In 2021, he missed 69 days with forearm soreness and a rib fracture.

Would Bader be willing to re-sign for somewhere in the neighborhood of two years and $25 million with an opt-out after this season? A deal like that would clearly make sense for the Phillies.

[BostonRoss]

If we get an outfielder who is as bad defensively as Castellanos, I want him to hit at least as much as Schwarber.

[zambonir]

I would like Harper to hit as much as Schwarber whether he's an OF or a 1B.

[andyb]

I probably lean against moving Bryce to the OF now. We certainly would want the DH available once or twice a week if we did that. Maybe its an injury option but I plan on him staying at 1B now. We have to assume it is a better fit each year as he ages.

[zambonir]

Well, we are not reallymoving Harper to the OF for Rhys Hoskins, even if Rhys was better than the conventional wisdom had it his last season here. Or Alonso. Or Alec Bohm. The Phillies will have to whiff on a lot of other options before that really turns into a conversation.

I'm not sure Bryce is actually a great 1B either. As with many Gold Glove nominations, name recognition and offense gets you just as much love. But it's definitely better for him to stay at 1B.

It's not like he moved there in the first place because he was declining in the field either (even though he was). It was to protect his arm, which is also probably not as good as it once was.

[andyb]

If they signed Hoskins it would be to DH for less money than Schwarber with the bonus of playing 1B 20 times a year while Bryce DH'd. And even then Hoskins might sit against some tough righties if we had a left-handed bat on the bench. We could also put Kemp in that role for less money and more flexibility.

The question always with that is whether you put Schwarber's money to good use elsewhere.

[zambonir]

Phils pick up Alvarado's option

[andyb]

ESPN projections a bit lower than the Athletic.

Your guide to MLB free agency: Rankings and contract projections for the top 50...

[flyers19rw]

Phillies signed Bryan de la Cruz to a minor league contract. He had a bad '25 season but has shown some pop in his bat in the past. RH hitter who can play the corner OF positions.

[andyb]

Don Mattingly leaving the Blue Jays. Apparently the Phillies are discussing the bench coach job that is now open.

https://www.mlb.com/news/don-mattingly-leaving-blue-jays-coaching-staff