Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[EDmuch]

He just turned 26.

[bkox]

He just turned 26.

He actually turns 27 around the start of the season in April. And he has over 1600 MLB Plate appearances. A career .277 OBP and his walk rate actually decreased last season.

Bohm and Adell debtued the same year. Bohm is 2 years older but has a 50 point better career OBP and OPS. I understand years of control and all that. But I dont see how this really improves our lineup.

[zambonir]

That really is a brutal OBP. Definitely would be adding another free swinger (151 Ks) to the offense, while also (potentially) subtracting a reliable source of contact in Bohm.

It's a Catch-22 really, if you think he's legit a 2 WAR 30 HR player in RF for the next two years he's gonna cost ya. And if he's not, he might not be anything more than a Marsh or Crawford platoon partner. His splits don't make it any easier to guess - 30 of his 37 HRs were against RHP but he only put up a 102 OPS+ (139 against LHP).

My guess is the Angels want more than the Phillies would give up (not unlike how the Phillies wanted too much for Bohm) and it would be better to spend more money on Bader or less money on someone less exciting, but with the same floor.

Either way it only improves the line-up if they upgrade 3B. Upgrading over Nick is the easy part.

[Austinfan]

What DD might do is play it by ear, start with Bohm and a platoon in RF, then see if Miller is ML ready by the All-star break, at that point, if he's ready, Bohm/Sosa become trade bait. Same with Crawford and maybe Rincones, is Crawford ready in April or does he need more seasoning?

If one thing we've learned, $10M for over 30 question marks has generally been a waste of money.

[xogfog]

The question with Miller is if they play him at 3B at AAA, Even is he is tearing up the league I wouldn't bring him up to replace Bohm if he hasn't played any 3B.

[zambonir]

That seems sensible, especially given Turner is probably not moving off SS for a couple of years and they are probably not going to trade Miller (if they are, he's more valuable as a SS). But it just might not be necessary. Moving from SS to 3B (or 2B) just isn't a huge leap. The big-name major league SSs who moved to 3B did so without ever playing the position. Neither had Segura when he moved for the Phillies briefly (and then he ended his career there in Miami). Polanco never played 3B in the minors. And guys like Sosa, Crawford and Galvis barely did before being asked to do so in the majors (albeit not for very long). And given Miller would be replacing Alex Bohm or Otto Kemp, he could learn on the job.

But if the scenario really does play out, easy enough to give him a few weeks in LV in July. I don't think they are going to keep Bohm and then replace him with Miller but if they trade Bohm and don't get a definitive newer starting 3B Miller will certainly be in the mix.

Of course, good as Trea was this year, if MIller is truly going to be a significant player why not just move Trea to 3B.

[Jazzhead]

Moving on from Schwarber opens up DH for Harper, with Bohm playing most days at first and Miller at third. Use the money saved to resign Bader and Ranger. The key to our continued success IMO is our deep lineup of starters.

[BaseballCat]

Not sure Harper is ready to move to DH. I’m not sure I want him at 1B as he was a gold glove finalist. Bohm at first weakens the defense and addition to Miller not being experienced at third. Not sure if we should go after pitching vs power. We just saw a WS that the Dodgers starters dominated (also when they pitched in relief). They got timely hitting, but pitching was key to their success.

[bkox]

Moving on from Schwarber opens up DH for Harper, with Bohm playing most days at first and Miller at third. Use the money saved to resign Bader and Ranger. The key to our continued success IMO is our deep lineup of starters.

Do we really believe Bader and Miller are going to replace the offense of Schwarber? Even if Schwarber regresses a bit. And Harper has become a gold glove caliber first baseman and Bohm certainly isnt. So you would have Miller at 3rd, having never played the position. Bohm (who would be one of the weakest offensive 1B in the league) at first, weakening both offense and defense.

Bohm's OPS in 2025 would have ranked 19th among MLB 1B. Couple that with his Defense and I think Bohm ends up being a negative WAR player at 1B.

And why are we not talking about Bryson Stott? Just because he has more years of control? 3rd year out of 4 where his OPS+ is below 100. .575 OPS versus lefties. Turner has actually played 2nd base in the past, whereas hes never played 3rd.

Stott is already 28, so its not like hes a young player anymore we are hoping for continued development.

[zambonir]

Stott really turned his season around last year though. He was injured the year before and sometimes it takes a while to find your rhythem again. He had a higher WAR than Marsh (who suffered from his poor start) and Bohm. Sosa was ahead of him but that just means it was a great platoon (along with Sosa's injury replacement time).

Agreed that moving Turner (or Miller) to 2B is also a viable thing. Especially after they sign Bregman!

Agreed, no to Bohm at 1B. Bad fielder, weak hitter.

The only way it makes sense to move Harper is if it is to OF, because they've lost Schwarber and signed a 1B.

[andyb]

Going with a DH by committee is not the worst thing. It won't replace Schwarber's offense but it will save $30 million to spread around elsewhere. Penciling in Schwarber's offense from last year is seemingly unwise. This does not mean though that we can't be a better overall team with improved team defense while getting more of our regulars rest during the season.

I still spend on starting pitching. I am worried that Wheeler won't be Wheeler and counting on Painter seems ill advised. All pitchers get hurt at some point, so the Dodgers showed how a team can have lots of starters and even those starters can be used in productive relief roles if one has to.

[phillychuck]

And why are we not talking about Bryson Stott?

Because, defense included, Stott has been a 3-fWAR 2b on average for the last 3 years. At his salary, that’s not a problem. I do think they should let him sit a bit more against tough LH pitching, but he’s still a significant positive contract. Whether or not they resign him I’m pretty agnostic about.

[zambonir]

I don't think it's actually possible to sit him more against LHP. He almost never faced them once he got off to a slow start overall. That only changed in September when Turner and Bohm were hurt at the same time, which meant both Sosa and Kemp were needed elsewhere (and Wilson was still Marsh's platoon partner).

It's interesting to talk about life after Schwarber, and the idea that he's the most important player in the clubhouse also seems overstated to me, but I still can't imagine him leaving, and if he does I think they go after Tucker. Or Bregman. Assuming they don't pivot to Alonso.

I can see them doing another Luzardo-type trade to bring in more pitching. Maybe what the Dodgers did does make them think twice about letting Ranger go, we'll see. You have to include Nola on the list of people who can't be counted on too.

[Austinfan]

The difference with the Dodgers is not just spending, but their Japanese pipeline that lets them bring in players in their early to mid-20s, so they can afford to lose draft picks, whereas buying 30+ year old FAs at inflated prices makes developing your own players a priority.

[phillychuck]

Yeah, the Japanese pipeline for the west-coast teams, especially the Dodgers, is a real competitive balance problem. It wasn’t a big deal when it was one decent player every 4 or 5 years, but now it’s arguably the best player in MLB, several top pitchers, and more good players coming over soon. Hard to compete if you are not in the conversation for any of them.

[zambonir]

There aren't really that many of them though, and the Dodgers have just pressed a particular triple advantage (winning, money and like attracting like both dating back to Nomo and with the current group), for two particularly great players (and a third on top of that).

Currently 13 Japanese players in MLB.

Dodgers; 3
Padres: 2
Cubs: 2
Angels: 1
Yankees: 1
Mets: 1
Red Sox: 1
Orioles: 1
Nationals: 1

One of the Padres players, Yu, started his career in Texas and signed his next big deal with the Cubs (rejecting the Dodgers who acquired him in between). The Yankees player, Maeda, is a former Dodger but played for two AL Central teams in between. Kikuchi, now on the Angels, started with the Mariners and played for Toronto and Houston in between.

There's no reason the Phillies couldn't be on that list above. But even Seattle and SF haven't been able to land anyone (has SF ever?). When you look over the inactive players, the two New York teams and the Sox were always just as in the mix as LA and Anaheim and Seattle. It's all still about the about financial imbalance, and there's still an argument that players would do well to not be on a team with so many other Japanese players, for marketing deals.

[bkox]

But even Seattle and SF haven't been able to land anyone (has SF ever?).

I think we need to not just consider Japanese but Asian altogether. SF got Jung Hoo Lee for a pretty big contract

[LegoDoom]

As I understand it, it's the distance to fly home. So it's west coast teams or the Yankees.

Stating outliers is notable, but doesn't move the needle.

[bkox]

Here is my thoughts on Schwarber.

First the sentimental (and I know there is no room for sentimental in baseball) but I would love to see Schwarber in the all star game and HR derby in Philly.

Now on the business side. 2026 could very well be the last season without a hard salary cap. I really believe we either see a salary cap or 2027 season gets wiped out.

If there is a cap there will also be a floor. Meaning smaller market teams will have to spend more. with both a cap and a floor, Middletons money wont mean as much. Sure they will be at the top of whatever the cap is.. but they will have to rely more on drafting and player development and that hasnt been the Phillies strong suit in a while.

So spend now and go for it all in 2026 with the proven commodity.

[zambonir]

I'm not sure I really buy that either though. How often do these guys fly back to Japan during the season (likely never) and how often do their families come over (rarely, they are either too young to have kids or their parents relocate with them). Just as easy to see your family member who is on the Phillies play 10 games on two road trips as to fly Tokyo-LA twice a season. There are also no direct flights to Japan from Arizona where spring training is. I think it's more about the communities in those cities and the popularity those teams have accrued from their past success. And none of those factors have helped the Mariners.

Anyway, the Dodgers having three of 13 doesn't make them that special, it's more that they have three stars, which is really not that different than the fact that they have the most stars in general and pay the most (even if they didn't get their money's worth in the pen). And seven of 12 being in the Midwest or East is not an outlier, and Darvish was as big a signing as anyone at the time (both times).

What I've never really understood is, it's no more or less easier for Japanese fans to watch East Coast games than West Coast games. Night games are both during the next workday.