Phillies 2018 Season News/Notes/Discussion

[nycphils]

Right now the rebuild is looking a bit shaky, especially on the position player side. There really is no more help on the way from the farm in terms of impact position players for the next couple of years at least - if they want to improve, they are going to have to fire the money cannon at Harper or Machado, which is fine if those guys don’t go to the NYY, Cubs, Dodgers, etc instead. If they go elsewhere, the offense could struggle unless development ticks up (which is possible).

Position players from within who are potentially impactful are at the Class A level - Gamboa, Ortiz, hopefully Haseley, Bohm and that kind of looks like it at the moment. LHV is a wasteland. The rest are much more likely to be writeoffs- Quinn, Cozens, Moniak, Randolph - or low ceiling (though fine players) upside such as Brito, Grullon, Maton, Gomez. Etc until you get down to rookie ball.

[Austinfan]

I pointed out the donut a year ago, the trades built up Reading and Lehigh, but a lot of those players graduated or flamed out. A ball is filling out and talent should be moving up to Reading next year.

They seem to be better at finding long shots than drafting at the top.
Hoskins 5-14
Leibrandt 6-14
Davis 12-14
Kingery 2-15
Gilbert 6-15
Leftwich 7-15
Cabral 11-15
Romero 4-16
Irvin 5-16
Hall 14-16
Seabold 3-17
Listi 17-17
Along with their usual contingent of LA low cost finds:
Grulllon $575K
Canelo
Kilome
Suarez
Ed Garcia
Pujols $540K
Sanchez
Medina $70K

[allentown]

They seem to be better at finding long shots than drafting at the top

I agree. That trend has been clear. To me, it says the guys at the top can't evaluate talent adequately. When the guys you absolutely fall in love with and draft in super-primo slots are very heavy on the duds, then the GM/upper scouting ranks are lacking in player evaluation skills. This has been a problem for a while now and it hasn't gone away. I have no problem calling Randolph a bust. Moniak is in trouble. Haseley the best of the recent 3 first-rounders, but BA already has him among the top busts of his draft, not that they are necessarily right. LGJ was as bad as it gets, as was Hewitt. There's still a management problem in scouting/development. The one quibble I'll make with your list is that Grullon's $575K was a very large bonus at the time we gave it to him. LA bonuses really inflated since then.

Our LA scouts do well on pitchers and middle IFs, but haven't done well outside that. Encarnacion was a $1 million bust, not escaping short-season ball. Ortiz does not look like he is going to be more than a near-average OF who has to move to 1B at a youngish age. For the size of Grulllon's bonus, he hasn't moved well through the minors. He looks like he will probably become a back-up catcher. Altherr is our only home-grown OF (Hoskins isn't really an OF). Knapp is the best we've done at catcher since Ruiz signed a LOOONG time ago.

[flyers19rw]

How can guys in the clubhouse really trust Kapler or not see him as anything more than a smooth-talking BSer when he does stuff like this?

Not to disagree with you but this is a harsh statement. However there may be something to it as illustrated by Arrieta's post game comments after his last start. If the players see that the manager is jerking them around, it could get ugly and fast. If the manager has a track record of success, guys tend not to challenge them. With a first year guy with one year of managing in low A ball on his resume....

[zambonir]

I think it may be conscious and that the business side of the organization sees Kingery as the Great White Marketing hope and fan favorite successor to Utley. In racial issues such as this in the entertainment/sports industries, it is a matter of how the management views their fan base. The Phillies organization has a very long and very well documented history of being VERY slow to adapt to the integration of baseball. The Phillies went to the World Series in 1950 with a very young team and rather quickly became irrelevant in the NL through a combination of bad trades (see Jack Sanford) and refusing to recruit the available talent from the Negro Leagues. Then, when I was in high school, there was all the turmoil over their handling of Dick Allen and then the Curt Flood trade. I think TPTB believe half their potential fan base won't come to the park to watch an African-American star. The management, fans, announcers were very slow to warm up to Rollins and had a love affair with Bowa.

All true and institutional culture/history matters, but "TPTB" doesn't really exist anymore (the announcers could still use a lot of work, however). Granted the place is still run by old white guys (Macphail, Middleton) but the turnover in both marketing and baseball ops has been pretty heavy. Money talks and the economic future of the Phillies as a business has to be diverse. At this point young families=millennials and Philadelphia's corporate culture is no longer the Main Line set either. I'm sure they would love to have another J-Roll or Howard as much if not more so than another Utley, thought that's easier said than done given how scarce African-American players are in general. If Crawford and Williams succeed they will get plenty of marketing love, and I don't think the business office had any role in Kingery's contract (let alone his playing time).

That's not to say we still don't see racism from the media and fan base, consciously and subconsciously. Kingery probably gets to make mistakes that Herrera and Crawford would (and do) get ripped for.

[LoneStarPhan]

OTOH, I recall Kingery getting ripped pretty heavily on this board in recent weeks.

[EDmuch]

Does anyone think that Crawford seriously has enough offensive potential to play 3b on a regular basis? I ask that question, not to dump on Crawford but to question his move to 3b as any sort of long term serious move. I see that it can be argued that Crawford can be characterized, from a shortstop perspective as having some offensive upside. But for 3b? Seriously, and without getting into whether I "hate" Crawford, can anyone make a case that he can provide enough offensive potential as a 3b?

[Philsmania]

They seem to be better at finding long shots than drafting at the top

I agree. That trend has been clear. To me, it says the guys at the top can't evaluate talent adequately. When the guys you absolutely fall in love with and draft in super-primo slots are very heavy on the duds, then the GM/upper scouting ranks are lacking in player evaluation skills. This has been a problem for a while now and it hasn't gone away. I have no problem calling Randolph a bust. Moniak is in trouble. Haseley the best of the recent 3 first-rounders, but BA already has him among the top busts of his draft, not that they are necessarily right. LGJ was as bad as it gets, as was Hewitt. There's still a management problem in scouting/development. The one quibble I'll make with your list is that Grullon's $575K was a very large bonus at the time we gave it to him. LA bonuses really inflated since then.

Our LA scouts do well on pitchers and middle IFs, but haven't done well outside that. Encarnacion was a $1 million bust, not escaping short-season ball. Ortiz does not look like he is going to be more than a near-average OF who has to move to 1B at a youngish age. For the size of Grulllon's bonus, he hasn't moved well through the minors. He looks like he will probably become a back-up catcher. Altherr is our only home-grown OF (Hoskins isn't really an OF). Knapp is the best we've done at catcher since Ruiz signed a LOOONG time ago.

One thing about Haseley is that like Crawford before him, he seems to be a slow adapter to a new level. Last year, he played in LKW only for the month of August and was good/not-great. Perhaps, he never really mastered that level. Then, he got off to a bad start in CLW this year before seemingly clicking in late-mid-May. However, at his best, he's been a singles and doubles hitter and not much else. But, nevertheless, people have backed off from calling him and Moniak the Bust Brothers.

[allentown]

No, I don't. Crawford is a SS; Kingery is a 2B; Hoskins is a 1B -- the team does them no favors playing them out of position at a time when they need to be learning their position at the MLB level. Positional flexibility is great... up to a point. When your normal defense has guys playing out of position for extended periods of time, while trying to learn shifts, while just getting acquainted with MLB -- it's pretty much a guaranteed disaster. The team needs a reserve OF who can play all the positions; the team needs a reserve IF who can play all the IF positions; the team needs guys who can be promoted from AAA and be good enough to fill in if an injury happens. It doesn't need and IMHO isn't helped by forcing this level of flexibility on kids who have yet to master their primary position. It isn't advanced stats so much as it is trend-following, because the Dodgers did it. IMHO it's bordering upon or already in the realm of mismanagement. Also, MLB in-season is not the place to teach extreme positional flexibility.
The Phillies are sort of stuck today, because they basically have two-only players. They couldn't trade Hernandez for what they thought he was worth and they seem to have brought Kingery up prematurely. Neither Crawford nor Kingery has hit well enough, but Crawford can at least play SS.

[Austinfan]

Herrera gets ripped because he lives in Herrera world, and it's taken a while for the rest of us to get used to living there.
If he was white, he'd been instantly labelled a "flake" or a "freak."
He's one of those guys who you just have to live with the weirdness, because when it clicks for him, he plays at a HOF level, and when he's "off," he visits the Mendoza line.
And he is certainly entertaining - and not a bad guy, just "different."

Allentown, I think you underestimate Ortiz, he's 19 in Lakewood, had a really good season (.961 OPS) in Williamsport at 18, playing against college kids. Slow start in Lakewood, and he's overeager, but last ten games, .343.

[Philsmania]

Herrera gets ripped because he lives in Herrera world, and it's taken a while for the rest of us to get used to living there.
If he was white, he'd been instantly labelled a "flake" or a "freak."
He's one of those guys who you just have to live with the weirdness, because when it clicks for him, he plays at a HOF level, and when he's "off," he visits the Mendoza line.
And he is certainly entertaining - and not a bad guy, just "different."

If he was white, he would also be anointed as "lovable" and "a character" with the latter having funny and endearing connotations, like the odd but personable kid you knew in school growing up who made everybody laugh. People would look at what he's doing and praise him as an overachiever. But, since he's a dark-skinned Dominican, he's either lazy, stupid, uncoachable or a combination of the three. People look at what he's doing and say he's an underachiever for all his talent. I still see hostility toward him on Facebook posts. It would blow you away how many people call him (and Franco) their "least favorite player".

[Philsmania]

I think it may be conscious and that the business side of the organization sees Kingery as the Great White Marketing hope and fan favorite successor to Utley. In racial issues such as this in the entertainment/sports industries, it is a matter of how the management views their fan base. The Phillies organization has a very long and very well documented history of being VERY slow to adapt to the integration of baseball. The Phillies went to the World Series in 1950 with a very young team and rather quickly became irrelevant in the NL through a combination of bad trades (see Jack Sanford) and refusing to recruit the available talent from the Negro Leagues. Then, when I was in high school, there was all the turmoil over their handling of Dick Allen and then the Curt Flood trade. I think TPTB believe half their potential fan base won't come to the park to watch an African-American star. The management, fans, announcers were very slow to warm up to Rollins and had a love affair with Bowa.

All true and institutional culture/history matters, but "TPTB" doesn't really exist anymore (the announcers could still use a lot of work, however). Granted the place is still run by old white guys (Macphail, Middleton) but the turnover in both marketing and baseball ops has been pretty heavy. Money talks and the economic future of the Phillies as a business has to be diverse. At this point young families=millennials and Philadelphia's corporate culture is no longer the Main Line set either. I'm sure they would love to have another J-Roll or Howard as much if not more so than another Utley, thought that's easier said than done given how scarce African-American players are in general. If Crawford and Williams succeed they will get plenty of marketing love, and I don't think the business office had any role in Kingery's contract (let alone his playing time).

That's not to say we still don't see racism from the media and fan base, consciously and subconsciously. Kingery probably gets to make mistakes that Herrera and Crawford would (and do) get ripped for.

Yeah, I have a hard time believing that Giles, Montgomery and Deats may be prevailing upon MacPhail, Klentak and Kapler in terms of Kingery getting preferential treatment. Yes, there has been turnover in the marketing area as well. My friend with whom I share season tickets and is a passionate follower of baseball history bemoans during every game we go to how in last winter's renovations of the ballpark, Memory Lane was removed along with the banners on Ashburn Alley which were adorned with images of His Whiteness. He thinks it's an abomination and blames all the young hipsters going to games and working in the marketing department for that.

[Austinfan]

Problem with social media is a few ass---es can make it seem like a general trend.
I think there were some issues with Pete, for one thing Herrera did take time for both the FO and fans to get used to - he is different, to say the least. And he was a bit immature, like most young players.
But I think Herrera is probably one of the most liked Phillies, not just for his production, but his obvious enthusiasm for the game.

Franco is a matter of frustration, and I'd note that Joseph engendered a similar reaction from fans - both showed flashes but can't consistently hit the ball - so you look at the HRs and wonder why they consistently flail away.

[EDmuch]

I just don't see how a team can win with a 3b batting .181.

[allentown]

Allentown, I think you underestimate Ortiz, he's 19 in Lakewood, had a really good season (.961 OPS) in Williamsport at 18, playing against college kids. Slow start in Lakewood, and he's overeager, but last ten games, .343.

I think Ortiz will be a major leaguer. I'm not convinced he will be a plus major league starter, which is what se paid and signed him to be. So far, we have shown we can find an develop good middle IFs and are close to showing the same for pitchers from LA (the next good MLB starting pitcher our international program develops will be our first, although there are promising guys in the pipeline). !B, 3B, OFs: nope and the last catcher was Ruiz. There are a lot of very good international players in MLB. How many have we signed/developed? Hernandez/Ruiz/Galvis/Franco. That's it on the position player side. Starting pitchers?

[nycphils]

He’s (Ortiz) got a .722 OPS on the road and .782 OPS vs LHP this season in spite of a slow start (.496 OPS in April). In Low A and doesn’t turn 20 until November. I think indications are solid thus far.

[allentown]

Playing a rookie SS at 3B is seldom a winning formula. Nor is playing a rookie 2B at SS. Perhaps Franco is hurt, but he has more than 100+ OPS point advantage over either Crawford or Kingery. Four guys in the starting lineup today had a lower OPS than Franco does for the year. The Phillies team seems in a terminal funk at the moment. Strange 'analytical' decisions seem a part of it. Sometimes it seems 'modern analytics' is just the whisper cover for whimsical decision making.

[EDmuch]

Agree 100%

[mdougherty12]

Article from Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs on Zach Eflin’s improvement in 2018:

The Phillies Have a Brand-New Starting Pitcher | FanGraphs Baseball

[Austinfan]

I just strained my shoulder patting myself on the back for my ITYS.

It's amazing Eflin got that far on those knees, but once he had them fixed, the Phillies development staff puts a lot of emphasis on teaching young pitchers to use their legs.
Eflin has the classic power pitcher body, he just had to fill out, but that's hard to build your lower body when your knees are bad.

He's still has a ways to go, he's probably a year behind Pivetta in terms of developing his secondary stuff, but like Pivetta his velocity is "effortless," big guys who can maintain velocity well over 100 pitches without overthrowing. There's a lot of upside left there, and a heck of a steal for an aging SS who was out of the league a year later.