Phillies 2018 Season News/Notes/Discussion

[EDmuch]

I do not see a lot of value in Crawford. That is true. But I don't hate him. Our problem is not drawing walks and getting people on base. It is someone with the power to drive them in. If Crawford could steal bases, I think that would help his value. But right now his value is limited to defense. And to me, that is not much better than Bobby Wine. And to me, Bobby Wine was tradable for an All=Star shortstop.

I do, however, agree, that neither Crawford nor Kingery have proven much offensively. But I do see more potential for Kingery if only because of his speed.

[phillychuck]

Crawford is a plus defensive SS who will have a good OBP as a major leaguer and have at least a little power. It has taken him time occasionally to figure out a level, I hope by next season he's making contact consistently enough to put up a line like 250/360/400. If he reaches that level he's a very good player.

Kingery is a gold-glove level 2B, but it doesn't look like he's going to get a lot of opportunity to play there. He's got to stop chasing pitches out of the zone to be a good offensive player. Hope he figures it out in the big leagues; he, too, has shown an ability to adjust to his level.

[andyb]

I do not see a lot of value in Crawford. That is true.

That was my point. I disagree with you on his value. A good defensive, high OBP SS can be a 4+ WAR player. Which is in the top half of major league SSs in virtually any season. And since Crawford has outperformed out other potential young SSs at each age (including guys like Kingery, Canelo, and Gamboa) I just don't see how he can be dismissed as a potential plus player.

Agree the team needs power. Just not necessarily from the SS position. If we get Machado it should be to play 3B and Crawford should be given every opportunity to win the SS position beside him.

[EDmuch]

Well we disagree. But my hunch is that if Machado says he wants to play ss for the Phils, he will b the SS. My hunch is Middleton is prepared to put up to $400 million in front of him. Snd if guaranteeing he plays ss is what is needef to make him sugn, he will be made the SS not withstanding Crswford’s ability draw a walk.

[EDmuch]

Typos courtesy of my IPhone

[Patchmk88]

So supposedly Gabe has come out and said that vs RHP Kingery will play SS and Crawford 3B and against LHP Kingery will play SS and Franco 3B. This is the dumbest crap I have ever seen. Let’s go ahead and get our two lowest OPS players at bats over our 4th highest guy. While we’re at it let’s play our SS with the history of great fielding at 3B. This just blows my mind.

[Austinfan]

Basically it comes down to them giving up on Franco.
Crawford is a very good 3B as well as SS, Kingery is much better at SS than 3B.
It gives both of them experience that has value down the road.

[mdougherty12]

Agree with you here on Crawford vs Franco. I just don't see Machado as a SS long term and if he insists on playing there (which I doubt he will) then I have less interest in him as a player. Bottom line for me is I think Crawford can be an above average SS and I don't think Franco will ever be an above average 3B starter largely because of defense. If Franco hits 30 HRs a year he still is probably not as valuable as Crawford would be if Crawford hits .250 with a decent number of walks.

At the moment, Franco looks more like a non-tender candidate than a guy who would be the main piece in a Machado trade.

[andyb]

Kapler on Kingery at SS: “He’s developing at shortstop,” Kapler said, “and we don’t want to stunt that development by just throwing J.P. in there and taking Scott off the position.”

Comments like this make you go huh? It is like he is admitting that Crawford is the better SS and they want Kingery to develop there (which is true, Crawford is better). I imagine there is some internal hedging of the bets on this, but the correct organizational response if this were all true would be to send Kingery to the minors to see if he can be a good SS. They are stunting Crawford's development with this silliness and that is equally important. Instead they throw Kingery at SS where he hurts the team, compound that by batting him 3rd where he is also hurting the team.

Ivy league types may be book smart, but they are not always wise. This really looks like a path to take Kingery, Crawford, and Franco and make them all worse players in the short run (and potentially the long run).

[allentown]

It means that the Phillies really want Kingery playing regularly in Philly and are not willing to move Hernandez. Yes, it says they've given up on Franco, but the big thing it says is that Kapler is not nearly as high on Crawford as you are, and likely that he is counting on Machado as his SS next season and maybe within a month. I am somewhere between you and Ed on Crawford's future value, but.... if he doesn't play SS, how much present value does he actually have?

[Philsmania]

Kapler on Kingery at SS: “He’s developing at shortstop,” Kapler said, “and we don’t want to stunt that development by just throwing J.P. in there and taking Scott off the position.”

Comments like this make you go huh? It is like he is admitting that Crawford is the better SS and they want Kingery to develop there (which is true, Crawford is better). I imagine there is some internal hedging of the bets on this, but the correct organizational response if this were all true would be to send Kingery to the minors to see if he can be a good SS. They are stunting Crawford's development with this silliness and that is equally important. Instead they throw Kingery at SS where he hurts the team, compound that by batting him 3rd where he is also hurting the team.

Ivy league types may be book smart, but they are not always wise. This really looks like a path to take Kingery, Crawford, and Franco and make them all worse players in the short run (and potentially the long run).

Bingo.

For the longest time, the Phillies were stubbornly and defiantly ignorant of analytics. Now, they've gone to the other extreme and become MLB's mad scientist destination laboratory.

Kingery is clearly one of Kapler's favorites. Interestingly, back in December after dining with both Hoskins and Crawford, he raved about how both had, in his view, impressive presence and confidence and would be important building blocks for this team. They even traded away Galvis to make room for Crawford. Now, seemingly on the fly, the Phillies and Kapler have cast Crawford aside and made Kingery the shortstop of the future...unless, of course, Machado comes along. How can guys in the clubhouse really trust Kapler or not see him as anything more than a smooth-talking BSer when he does stuff like this? And, more troubling, is the Phillies "process" really being executed with planning and deliberation or are we going back to the seat-of-their-pants decision-making like we saw when Giles was his own GM? When you think about it, signing Santana and moving get Hoskins to the outfield was pretty seat of the pants. If they thought Santana would be Franco's "whisperer", well, so much for that one.

[zambonir]

I have to agree with A-town, whether it's short-term (because they want to win right now still) or long-term it seems Crawford's admittedly too-brief audition and injury has dropped his stock internally. Of course, there is also internal pressure to make Kingery work, because the manager lobbied hard for him to make the team and the GM gave him that contract.

Except, the real headline here is about Franco. If he and Crawford are going to be a true 3B platoon, that means Crawford is the de facto starter.

As far as the trade stuff, the Cubs aren't going to trade Russell for a Machado rental, but if they are, Crawford doesn't help you beat that. And neither does Kingery or Franco or even Williams. You can onliy beat that with an equally proven major leaguer or with 2 good prospects.

But there's probably not gonna be a trade. Seems to me the injury to Hoskins and the recent swoon against strong competition (both team-wise and from Herrera), combined with the disappointing production from RF and even Santana (though he's now steady, and leads the team in HRs) has the team re-thinking its chances and treating the season like the experiment/development process it was originally supposed to be.

[tom81]

From my perspective I find it unfortunate that they are not trying to win this year. That said they are not trying to lose either but are more interested in evaluating what they have to determine what they need to go after this off season. I agree they have determined that Franco is not the answer at 3B. It looks like they have determined that Hernandez is the answer at 2B, Herrera at CF, Alfaro at C, and Santana at 1B. I think who plays 3B, SS, LF, and RF are all in play for next year and so they really want to spend the rest of this year determining what positions they need to prioritize as off season targets. Given that game plan it makes sense to play Kingery at SS now to make a better judgement if he can play that position next year and beyond. Same for Crawford at 3B, as they really do know he can play SS defensively at the MLB level but don't have enough of a book at him at 3B or at the plate. My only complaint with this is batting Kingery in the 2 or 3 hole at the same time while he is struggling so at the plate. He has a lot on his plate and it is very common and practical to bat the new kid low in the lineup as he adjusts to the new level.

[andyb]

It means that the Phillies really want Kingery playing regularly in Philly and are not willing to move Hernandez. Yes, it says they've given up on Franco, but the big thing it says is that Kapler is not nearly as high on Crawford as you are, and likely that he is counting on Machado as his SS next season and maybe within a month. I am somewhere between you and Ed on Crawford's future value, but.... if he doesn't play SS, how much present value does he actually have?

It is probably true that they are more down on Crawford. Part of this is that his swing is a mess, most likely due to changes that the new regime has tried to get him to implement. But it also shows bias towards Kingery, who while showing promise, has really not shown that he is a better prospect than Crawford. If they want the two of them to compete for SS then one should play at AAA. If they want Machado at SS they are probably being dumb because they are ignoring the analytics.

One can not like Crawford's potential as much as I do and still see all the wrong-headed bias in these moves. The manager and GM's job is to prioritize and develop their best assets. I am fine with reducing Franco's playing time. That only makes sense though with Kingery at 3B.

This is the worst defensive team in baseball at the moment and they have the talent to be middle of the pack. At some point some blame needs to go to management for that.

[andyb]

To focus on one other aspect of this, I actually wonder if it has nothing to do with Machado. Maybe the internal powers that be think Bohm will move quickly and be ready at some point next season. In that light it might make sense for them to have a Crawford vs Kingery competition for the SS spot and not go after Machado. Go get Harper or Kershaw instead.

Clearly they are keeping their options open, but this situation still cries out for Kingery (OPS .582, WAR -1.0) to be sent to AAA to learn how to play SS. This is kind of "How to ruin 2 prospects" 101.

[zambonir]

They could also sign a Donaldson or Moustakas short-term. For sure, Harper is as much in the mix as Machado. Not sure anyone touches Kershaw right now (or if he even opts out).

I'm assuming they just don't like Kingery at 3B, either because of his arm or the fact that he doesn't have as much experience there (however long ago his SS experience was). He also can't platoon with Franco

[nycphils]

I think it is more they don’t like kingery at 3B, have started to give up on Franco and maybe a little bit of subconscious racial bias too, to be frank. I’m sure everyone will freak out at that last suggestion, but when objectively they are all pretty bad, and Kingery seems to be worshipped in a way the others have never been, it makes you wonder if they are letting the myth of the scrappy white guy bleed in.

I doubt it’s intentional, but it is striking.

[zambonir]

I don't think the front office cares about that stuff but it certainly felt that way as far as the premature fan/media excitement over Kingery (not just compared to Franco, but Crawford and Hernandez).

It's okay to be done with Franco though. It's also okay if he's just a bench bat.

Zolecki mentions the idea that they could upgrade 3B (rather than getting Machado) this deadline, if they're buying.

Phils in need of help at shortstop, third base

[allentown]

I think it may be conscious and that the business side of the organization sees Kingery as the Great White Marketing hope and fan favorite successor to Utley. In racial issues such as this in the entertainment/sports industries, it is a matter of how the management views their fan base. The Phillies organization has a very long and very well documented history of being VERY slow to adapt to the integration of baseball. The Phillies went to the World Series in 1950 with a very young team and rather quickly became irrelevant in the NL through a combination of bad trades (see Jack Sanford) and refusing to recruit the available talent from the Negro Leagues. Then, when I was in high school, there was all the turmoil over their handling of Dick Allen and then the Curt Flood trade. I think TPTB believe half their potential fan base won't come to the park to watch an African-American star. The management, fans, announcers were very slow to warm up to Rollins and had a love affair with Bowa.

Philsmania -- Crawford is not a finished defensive SS and needs to play there regularly to hone his skills. Moving him to 3B retards his development. Kingery doesn't have the arm for 3B. I don't think he really is more than a fill-in reserve at SS. Square peg/round hole. The Phillies are focusing on analytics now; I just don't think they're doing it very well yet. Last year's draft, based so much on just blindly accepting KATOH isn't really home-grown analytics -- it's almost a punt. That the shifts aren't working says that our use of analytics is in its infancy, our analytics staff isn't that good today, and we are just feeling our way through a new 'technology' we sense is going to be very important. The rest of baseball is leagues ahead of us.

As to somebody's comment elsewhere that the Phillies had already won the Giles trade, so didn't need a CYA 'name' like Appel: Giles was a plus closer, young, under control, cheap, fan favorite. History shows that the team that trades such a player generally loses the trade. As of today, I wouldn't say we won that trade. At the time of the trade, we were taking a pile of second-tier prospects with questions, who would take a while to develop (or not) as major leaguers.

[Austinfan]

I think people need to relax a bit, the fast start was a mirage, which isn't a surprise.
The rebuild still has a couple more years to go. So player development is still the priority.

One aspect of player developmen for Kapler is versatility, because injuries will happen, and the ability to play more than one position makes it easier to work around losing a starter for a half of a season. And it also gives the team more off season flexibility to take advantage of value acquisitions that aren't a perfect fit.

I don't think they've given up on Crawford, rather, because he has struggled, they're putting him in a position to succeed in a platoon for now, and letting him polish his 3B skills. Kingery is playing SS for now, he's also a credible OF and a potential top 2B. With Bohm on the way in a couple years, and guys like Canelo, Gamboa, etc. moving up the ranks, who knows who'll be packaged in trades in two years.

Kapler tries to give everyone a shot, but it's not easy, he has 3 players for two spots (SS, 3B), 3 players tor 2 spots (Hoskins, WIlliams, Altherr), and he wants to keep Valentin, Floriman and Knapp sharp on the bench. So some of the juggling is getting everyone PT, some of it is developing flexibility for young players.