Discussion

phillychuck 2018-05-21 14:25:57 UTC #442

I'm not trading anyone with a solid future for 3 months of Machado. If the Orioles want lottery tickets I'll send them a few, but nobody in the top 20. Sign him in the off-season. (I might think of Crawford as a lottery ticket at this point, but not Kingery or Sixto.)

andyb 2018-05-21 14:30:47 UTC #443

I agree. Would not do Machado for anything close to that. I am not sure the market is that good for rentals these days also. The biggest trades are generally for the players with 2-3 more years of control. Not even sure the guarantee that Machado would sign (which will probably not be offered), would change things too much. Machado's value is predicated on the time of control and a little bit the needs of the teams making the trade.

I suppose there are scenarios where Machado might mean a division title for us and thus his value would be more. Just not prepared to go there even if we appear to be solid wild card contenders.

LoneStarPhan 2018-05-21 16:31:02 UTC #444

I would not trade one of Kingery, Crawford, Dominguez, or Sixto for Machado for the remainder of the season. For me, it would be a sign of the return to the thinking that has seen the Phillies as a historical losing team. Unless Machado is signing a long term contract, I don't want to give up much of anything that has a future past 2018 for him.

allentown 2018-05-21 16:39:39 UTC #445

Totally agree with both points. Also, Machado will insist on playing a position he can't really play, and if he doesn't get to do that all the time our chances of resigning him will be lower than had we not traded for him. I would give them someone in the top 20 prospect list, but not any of the guys you mention and not anybody above about #7-8 on my prospect list.

bkeich 2018-05-21 17:15:17 UTC #446

I cant believe there is anyone foolish enough to make that trade for a rental. They would be lucky to get one of those guys and a throw in/long shot, and I expect Sixto is completely off the board (that would be insane).

These proposed trades are always funny, too many writers just look at a guys stats and make a assessment of his ability, but the controllable years is at least as important, if not more. Machado is valuable certainly, but he is not nearly valuable enough without a locked up contract to even talk about a package anything like this.

BostonRoss 2018-05-21 18:08:46 UTC #447

This is why Bowden isn’t a GM anymore.

andyb 2018-05-21 18:13:58 UTC #448

Not sure I would go that far. Remember this is a trade for a guy who might be an MVP this year. There is a price for adding that to a team without picking up huge salary like in the Stanton deal.

He probably won't be as expensive as Bowden outlined, but he'll cost something serious. Probably more than the Franco, Kilome, Rios deal I would counter with.

phillychuck 2018-05-21 18:24:41 UTC #449

Andy, I don't see where the competition is for signing him...who else is giving away minor league stars for 3 months of a potential MVP? The Yankees and Sox would be stupid to give away a whole lot for him since they will be in play for signing him at the end of the season anyway. Dodgers? Do they have the money or the players? Are they really in contention? Cubs don't need him, and have a pretty barren minor league system. Does anyone else have the money?

I don't think we want to bid against ourselves here...I honestly think Franco, Kilome, Rios is a very generous offer in the circumstances.

andyb 2018-05-21 18:40:56 UTC #450

Bowden's number one is the Cubs with an Addison Russell based deal. Russell plus two of their pitching prospects (mentioned Adbert Alzolay, Oscar De La Cruz, Brendon Little, Alex Lange and Jose Albertos). That may be a shade behind the deal he suggested for the Phillies, but might be easier for them to offer it.

FWIW we are paying a little for not having a break the bank international year where we signed ten top prospects. Our inventory thins after Sixto in terms of top pitching prospects (top 100 quality).

zambonir 2018-05-21 18:46:15 UTC #451

Meghan Montemurro made a good point in her column (which was in response to Brookover's column. To be fair, as bad as Brookover's column was, at no point did he suggest they should trade for him if he won't take an extension).

If the Phillies are willing to give up the type of prospects it would take to land Machado, then they should consider using those resources to land a top player who’s under team control for more than a couple months.

Easier said than done, but she's right. If you're going to move Sanchez or one of Kingery/Crawford there are probably going to be other players out there to consider. Even better, you sign Machado as a FA and then have one of those guys to move (assuming you keep Cesar).

bkeich 2018-05-21 18:58:31 UTC #452

Well, anyone might be an MVP, but his 190 OPS+ is almost certainly not sustainable. He has a career 120 OPS+, which is good but is really only above average for a 3B (now if you keep him at SS and he gets better at the fielding than his value goes up alot, but so far he has not been a good fielding SS). I know Bowden said he might be an MVP, but I dont see his hot streak as that sustainable. His .343 BaBIP is a litttle high, but his 14 HR in 200 PA is way high. He has already cooled off to a degree, having a very good May, but nothing like the crazy April he had with a 1.124 OPS. No team will pay for that best month of his career as sustainable.

You arent picking up a big salary, but you arent getting anything more than a few months of play for that privilege, and you can't even get a draft pick for him as a mid season acquisition. His value is deflated by his pending FA and the fact that his stats arent sustainable at this seasons level. I would look more at his career than a great month..

andyb 2018-05-21 19:00:22 UTC #453

The attraction of Machado as a free agent is age (in addition to quality). As a free agent you pay for years 26-32 on a 7-year deal which is a good risk.

Players who are a few years older but might have 2-3 years of control might have more trade value because you are paying for their age 27-29 years potentially. Those players could be MORE expensive than Machado because of the greater number of prime years you acquire relative to the dollars one needs to guarantee (i.e. not $300+ million).

So while it is a nice sentiment, I am not sure those on this board would want to even consider a player less valuable than Machado where the deal starts with Kingery and Sanchez.

andyb 2018-05-21 19:04:32 UTC #454

This statement is kind of a misleading use of stats though. His last 3+ years of OPS+ are 130, 132, 107, and then this year's 190. The career numbers are dragged down by 98, 102, and 110 in his age 19-21 seasons. Machado is still young enough to get better, so while 190 is not sustainable, I might think 150 is for a guy that was 130 and 132 in his age 22 and 23 seasons.

Even at 3B a 900 OPS guy can be pretty valuable.

zambonir 2018-05-21 19:06:08 UTC #455

Well yeah, that's why it is easier said than done, not knowing the age and controllability of the "other" player. But it could also be a pitcher, where you know you're not getting more than 3-4 years but you're getting them at 29 instead of 31.

I'm still okay with the Phillies making their Machado play and the market might not be as bad as we think it is. Of course the farm system is also not as good as we thought it was going to be.

This front office hasn't overpaid (except with $) or acted rashly yet, I doubt they are going to panic even in a July pennant race.

Despite the seeming outlandish of his proposal, Bowden says it himself really:

The problems the Orioles face in trading Machado are three-fold. First, teams no longer trade anything close to fair value for rental players (like Machado) who are definitely getting to free agency at season’s end. Second, there aren’t many teams that are good fits for a Machado trade because of either luxury tax issues, team competitiveness or the lack of openings on the left side of their infields. Third, the Orioles’ biggest need is pitching, and many of the teams that they seemingly match up with for a trade don’t have the pitching depth or the high-quality pitching prospects to deal.

Something closer to your deal could get it done, for sure.

Austinfan 2018-05-21 19:06:20 UTC #456

Problem is Machado won't put this team over the top.

And you can always sign him as a free agent, trading for him won't give you the inside track, the fact that he forced a move to SS says he's all about the money.

Phillies are an 80-85 win team, two months of Machado might be worth another 1-2 wins.
You don't trade top prospects to finish 5 games out of the wildcard.

zambonir 2018-05-21 19:26:26 UTC #457

What season are you watching? He might not be the only thing they need, and some other things need to happen, but right now they will win 85 games if they just play .500 ball the rest of the way.

Now, for sure, you don't trade away a ton of talent just to make the playoffs, or even to try and win one round.But if you think you can win the division, anything's possible.

I don't think much of concerns about whether Machado is selfish because he wants to play SS, or because he wants money. And I'm certain the front office doesn't share them. This front office knows, loves and wants him, and if they do deal for him in July it will be because they expect to keep him.

bigegypt0417 2018-05-21 20:32:51 UTC #458

Jerad Eickhoff left his rehab start after feeling a twinge in his fingertips...

Philsmania 2018-05-21 21:14:03 UTC #459

MLBTR provides more detail...

zambonir 2018-05-21 21:36:16 UTC #460

I don't know why MLBTR said the Phillies will have to continue to "shuffle" through 5th starter options. It's not like Eflin is going to be pushed by anyone else. I'd say he could make four bad starts before they'd even consider a move. I guess MLBTR just does that to generate content for fantasy players.

Of course it's also possible they are being super-cautious/conservative about Eickhoff because it suits them to do.

nycphils 2018-05-21 22:37:58 UTC #461

The only guy I wouldn’t trade for him is Sixto. Would I trade Crawford or Kingery along with, say, Lively and Medina (or JoJo)? To put this team over the top and get the best shot at signing him before full on FA (and saving the 2019 #1 draft pick)?

No question. With Sixto, one of Medina/Romero, Irvin, de los Santos, Suarez, maybe Kilome if he can right the ship plus the ability to sign a FA (Dallas Keuchel, Patrick Corbin, MadBum, Chris Sale, Gerritt Cole, etc over the next couple offseasons) plus Nola, Pivetta, Eflin, Velasquez, Arietta) I’d feel confident I could roll the dice on dealing Medina, and with Cesar, one of Kingery/Crawford and Gamboa, Brito, Nick Maton and maybe even Canelo coming up over the next two/three years, I’d feel fairly confident up the middle for a while even without one of Kingery/Crawford.