Minor League Games - Saturday, May 13, 2017

[kikutaro]

Buffalo Bisons (18-14) @ Lehigh Valley IronPigs (21-13) Game 2 | Gameday
Mat Latos (0-0, 0.90) vs. Tom Eshelman (1-0, 0.00)
(postponed: rain)

Portland Sea Dogs (17-13) @ Reading Fightin Phils (18-13) 6:05 pm | Gameday
Kevin McAvoy (1-2, 4.01) vs. Drew Anderson (3-0, 5.53)
(postponed: rain)

Tampa Yankees (16-21) @ Clearwater Threshers (22-15) 6:15 pm | Gameday
Domingo Acevedo (0-3, 4.72) vs. Seranthony Dominguez (3-0, 1.74)

Notable

Zachary Coppola 2-4, R, RBI, K, CS
Mark Laird 1-3, R, BB, K
Cornelius Randolph 2-4, R, 2 RBI, CS
Wilson Garcia 2-4, R, 2 RBI, HR
Herlis Rodriguez 2-4, RBI, 2 K, CS
Austin Bossart 1-3, R, 2B, K

Seranthony Dominguez 4.2 IP, 3H, 3R, 2ER, 3BB, 7K, game score: 48
Edgar Garcia (BS, 1)(W, 1-0), 1.0 IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1K
Jeff Singer (S, 9), 2.0 IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 3K

Columbia Fireflies (17-16) @ Lakewood BlueClaws (21-14) 4:05 pm | Gameday
N/A vs. N/A
(postponed: rain)

(click on the start time for box scores)

[phillychuck]

LV, Lakewood, and Reading all likely to be rainouts today.

[bigegypt0417]

Scouting the Minors Pitch by Pitch: Dylan Cozens

[andyb]

Interesting. While it also shows that Cozens did hit some home runs to take advantage of his home park, his fly balls simply flew further there in a park that might be a good home run park but also a park that really does not increase fly ball distance. In other words that means that a big part of his home road split from last year was simply hitting fly balls further at home - which means it was a small sample size effect.

He started slowly this year at a new level (which is not outside his typical pattern), but the tools are real even if it looks like the SB speed may have been a lower minors confluence of a young body and inferior catcher and pitchers holding runners. Given the year that he is younger than Hoskins it is still not at all clear which one is better. The added defensive value and extra year are still compelling reasons to think Cozens might be EVEN IF Hoskins has taken another step forward which he appears to be doing.

[Austinfan]

Cozens may have "too much" power in that he may be overswinging to generate power.
Watching Rupp and Joseph, once you have plus plus power, less may be more, focusing on contact and shortening your swing at the expense of a little power may be the optimal approach. They're most effective when they swing under control, yet can still drive the ball 400+ feet.
Hoskins seems to have found the "golden mean," he generates HRs at the same rate as Cozens, yet makes contact far more consistently.

[andyb]

Cozens may have "too much" power in that he may be overswinging to generate power.
Watching Rupp and Joseph, once you have plus plus power, less may be more, focusing on contact and shortening your swing at the expense of a little power may be the optimal approach. They're most effective when they swing under control, yet can still drive the ball 400+ feet.
Hoskins seems to have found the "golden mean," he generates HRs at the same rate as Cozens, yet makes contact far more consistently.

Rupp and Joseph do not have plus plus power. Simply being strong does not give you that designation. There is also the ability to do it in games. Cozens DOES have plus plus power. He is not over-swinging. He does have a really long swing like most tall players do and needs to work on shortening that swing. He appears to be doing that and the opposite field power from Reading last year was another good sign.

Hoskins does make contact more consistently. That alone does not make him the better prospect at the moment. They are both good with each having their own plusses and minuses.

[flyers19rw]

ToJo's career numbers in the show are impressive for power. 25 Hrs in 410 ABs; SLG of .488; OPS-.797; OPS+-110. That may not be plus plus power but its good.

[Austinfan]

I've seen both TJ and Rupp hit 400+ HRs to right center, if that ain't plus plus power, what is?
When you can hit the ball out of any ballpark (well, except when the wind is blowing in at 20+ MPH like the ball Rupp hit that ended up a double off the wall) and any place in a ballpark, any additional power is superfulous.

Altherr on the other hand, has plus power but isn't nearly as strong as the big boppers, he just has really improved as a hitter, a really sweet swing where he keeps his head down and on the ball - Stairs' prize pupil so far.

Rupp is looking like the typical catcher where it takes them a while to develop their hit tool (b/c the job is so demanding).
Joseph is just very inexperienced, but I certainly what to see what Stairs can do with him. He seems to understand what he needs to do, and is starting to translate that to the field. They've both have had a lot of good ABs this year.

[andyb]

Plus plus power is generally considered 70 power on the scouting tool. This is the ability to hit 30+ homers in a season in games consistently. The "in games" part is key. Neither Joseph or Rupp has done that. Rupp has too much swing and miss in his game to ever do it. Joseph does have the potential to be seen as having 70 power but really has not done that consistently except for 75% of a season last year. That is not enough.

Physical strength and scouting terms are very different things. The scouting terms always include an element of skill. So Joseph might be seen as having 55 power now and 70 potential. Rupp may be more like 55 and 60 though with the 55 of having slightly above average power being all he will ever be. He is 28 years old (turns 29 in September) and has never hit more than 16 HR in a season. The raw numbers are down compared to other positions as a catcher, but it is not like he is hitting 25+ consistently ever.

So neither player has plus plus power as scouts define it.

Fangraphs definition/discussion below:

Scouting Explained: The 20-80 Scouting Scale | FanGraphs Baseball

[Austinfan]

Well, gee, Hoskins and Cozens HAVE NEVER HIT A HR IN A MAJOR LEAGUE GAME.
So there!

Joseph was on a 40 HR pace for a full season, so by your "definition" he obviously has 80 power. Whether he'll realize it on a sustained basis, stay tuned.

Rupp is a tougher call, because he hasn't gotten enough PA the last three years:
2013: 369
2014: 283 .134 ISO - AAA
2015: 299 .141 ISO - PHL
2016: 419 .195 ISO - PHL
2017: 90 .211 ISO
This may be why a lot of catchers who aren't instant stars blossom later, they get forced into part-time action when they're young (we're seeing that with Knapp this year) and don't get the PA to develop as hitters as fast as position players who stay in the minors until they learn to pound the ball.

The big jump this year is his BB %, he's always had a high K rate, but he seems to becoming more selective.
He's swinging at fewer pitches outside the K-zone.
His HR/FB rate jumped last year and has inched up a little more.
I'll wait a few more months before coming to any conclusion whether he hit his peak last year or if Stairs can find some more production.

[andyb]

The number of HRs is only a rough guide to what full potential would be. If these guys did it for several seasons then you start giving them that present grade. Cozens has 80 potential. Game-wise more like 55 or 60 now adjusting for the levels he has been at and the pitchers he is facing.

Fans throw scouting terms around all the time and they usually do it incorrectly. Neither Rupp nor Joseph have what most scouts call plus plus power. And if you are expecting Rupp to suddenly jump to hitting 30 HR a year you'll probably be waiting a long time. Catchers do take a little longer to develop. But then they often have a shorter peak. Such is life as a catcher. Rupp might retain the power, but that might be at the expense of an OBP below .300 and hitting .220 after a few years.

Read the definition and you'll see that it does not apply to Rupp and Joseph. Read small parts of the definition and you can probably claim anything you want about almost anyone.

[Austinfan]

I could give a flying fig about the "definition"
This isn't legal analysis, it's just some subjective terms that are thrown around.
I'll call 'em as I see 'em, not pretend to be a "scout."

I see a big boy hit 400+ HRs on a regular basis, I see plus plus power.
Doesn't mean he's gonna hit 40 HRs (though I think Joseph has that kind of potential).
But I grew up with McCovey, Stargell and Dick Allen, I know power when I see it.

[bigegypt0417]

Rupp has 28 hr's in over 800 at bats.

If Rupp has plus plus power then I'm not sure what cozens is on the scale.

[allentown]

Yeah, I think that was the problem with AF's post. I can see his argument that Joseph has plus-plus power, but he hasn't made a case for Rupp. And plus-plus power is not just how far does your HR go, it's how often do you hit a HR. Any big guy who swings very hard will hit some 400+ foot HRs, but most will do this with low frequency. Being a 40+ HR a year guy is a lot more than being able to hit a ball a long way when you hit it optimally. That's why LGJ is no longer with us and why the 'raw power' tool is often such a useless tool.

[bigegypt0417]

Cornelius Randolph has two hits!

[Austinfan]

Rupp doesn't need to swing hard to generate power, that's what I mean by plus plus power, he's got similar raw power to Joseph.
Now whether he'll realize is questionable, because he struggles to make contact.
But I like what Stairs is doing with the Phillies hitters, and I'll give him time to get whatever there is there to get.

Now Franco swings hard because he doesn't have great power, he's more like Altherr, where he'll get his share of HRs if he makes consistent contact, but the harder he tries to hit the ball, the less effective he becomes. Franco should study Pujols and hitters like that.
Knapp is another with decent but not great power, as is Saunders.

[bigegypt0417]

Rupp does not have plus power or anything near it.

[allentown]

Rupp doesn't need to swing hard to generate power, that's what I mean by plus plus power, he's got similar raw power to Joseph

Raw power is the most useless and ephemeral of tools. LGJ oozed raw power. Raw power without the hit tool just doesn't appear in games. If we are going to grade plus-plus power, and remember you were initially speaking of in-game power, not the raw power tool, then we might as well quantify it as the NFL does with their measure of the number of bench presses a draft candidate can do -- it wouldn't mean anything, but you'd have number.