Minor League Games - Monday, August 13, 2018

[phillychuck]

Zach Green has made encouraging progress at LV lately. He was 1 for his first 15 after being promoted, but over his last 6 games he's 11/28 (.393/.414/.750) for a 1164 OPS. Actually, if you just subtract the 7 games he's played vs. Buffalo (he seems to struggle vs them for some reason, 1/24) he's hitting .328/.388/.590 for a 978 OPS. I think he's actually re-establishing himself as a pretty decent prospect.

[Austinfan]

Not as a RH 1B - Green is behind Meneses who keeps hitting better and better, at this point it no longer looks like a fluke but a guy who figured it out. 1.025 OPS, .373 BA since the Allstar break.

[allentown]

They haven't called Meneses to Philly, which means he almost certainly will go elsewhere this off-season.

[andyb]

Both Green and Meneses are fringe prospects. Green is a couple years younger and has more defensive value (ability to play 3B) so probably more worth paying attention to. Walding has the advantage of being left-handed and a bit better defensively (than either of the other two). Green is playing better of late, though really it is all looking at small sample sizes and he was probably going to get his OPS closer to 800 given what he did in Reading (953).

All could be gone next year though Walding will be an interesting 40-man decision as he could easily stick as a bench player on many major league rosters next year. The Phillies will need to figure out what they do with their infield numbers logjam in front of all these players in the offseason.

[phillychuck]

Green is less experienced than most players his age as he lost parts of 4 seasons to various injuries:

"The Phillies drafted Green in the third round in 2012 and signed him for $420,000. A year later, he led the short-season New York-Penn League with 13 homers in 74 games. But then his body betrayed him. He missed two months with back pain in 2014 and was limited to 26 games by a wrist injury in 2015. Two years ago, he played in pain before finally succumbing to Tommy John elbow surgery and a hip procedure."

Phillies prospect Zach Green, finally healthy, is slugging toward a reunion with...

I think Green is actually someone who might be protected--I think he's more than a fringe prospect, but not an elite prospect, either. I'm a huge fan of Meneses, too, but I suspect he'll need to go elsewhere to get a full chance in the big leagues.

[Austinfan]

The problem with Green is he doesn't seem to be able to handle 3B anymore, which would give him more value.

[Philsmania]

They haven't called Meneses to Philly, which means he almost certainly will go elsewhere this off-season.

Unless they DFA someone or finagle someone on the sixty day DL, they won't have a forty man roster spot to give Meneses in September which is unfortunate. It's almost as if the most equitable thing they can do for him is trade him on September 1 (or after the Pigs finish their playoff run) for nominal consideration to a contender in the American League which can spare him a forty man spot.

[andyb]

The problem with Green is he doesn't seem to be able to handle 3B anymore, which would give him more value.

Are we sure about that? He has played more 3B than 1B the last couple of years. Now the Phillies preferred Walding there mostly when the two were on the same team, but that is probably because Walding is better defensively. It does not mean that Green can't be average there though.

In general I agree that Green has improved his prospect status. He is probably a tick above Meneses because he is 2 years younger and more defensively flexible. That still does not make him a good prospect though it does make him someone you hope hangs around in AAA in case there is another level of improvement. All these players are just markers on the Ruf-Stassi spectrum somewhere of guys that showed good offense but really profile as marginal major leaguers and would have more chances in the DH league.

[Austinfan]

It would have been so much easier if Meneses tailed off the second half and had a good but not great season.
But the ways he's hitting, he may be that "late bloomer" that pops up every so often.
He just turned 26 this year, it's his first AAA season, yet he's adjusted rapidly and is tearing the league apart.

At some part nothing matters but production.
And these players do happen, the ultimate is Jose Bautista - Nada unti 29-34, .995, 1.056, .886, .856, .928, .913.

[California_Dreamin]

And Max Muncy, who is 27. The guy has hit all year and is hitting even better the second half. It would be a shame if he is for real..and the Phils found it out when he was playing for another team.

[phillychuck]

These "late bloomers" were one of Bill James' favorite topics. Career minor leaguers who produced in the minors but were overlooked because their stats were hidden in pitchers' leagues or parks or they were "blocked" in organizations. I believe he called those players "Ken Phelps All-stars":

The Phelps Hypotheticals: Part 1 | The Hardball Times

Meneses fits the profile.

[andyb]

These late developers certainly do exist. They are valued less because many of them do not profile much above replacement level. Plus, since they are older, they might have used some options or are at risk of being left unprotected in rule 5 drafts,

Meneses was not good enough to protect before the Phillies got him. Probably not now either since he plays a position with depth where right-handers are less valuable. We all overrate offensive stats from defensively limited players.

Since these types of players are readily available in minor league free agency teams can sign then for nothing. A few will succeed. But since they are freely available they just don't have much value (trade value or holding a 40 man spot value). Ken Phelps was a little unique because he came up when walks were valued less. Now that stuff is properly valued by most teams. It is just a commodity where there is more supply than demand (offense first, defensively limited hitters).

[zambonir]

I'd really like to see Meneses in September because it's a good story and you never know, especially considering this team still needs pop. But unless he turns out to be better than Rhys Hoskins it's not going to be any great loss for the Phillies if he breaks out somewhere else.

[California_Dreamin]

zambonir...with all due respect, your philosophy fits precisely into what drives many of us crazy when it comes to the Phillies. They seem to operate internationally on a philosophy of "well, if Player X is not going to be better than Payer Y, it probably is no big deal if we don't get him and someone else does."

This is not the philosophy of the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers and we so often jealously observe those teams gobbling up more talent that they could ever possibly need. That is, until they need to trade said prospect for someone else.

I want the Phils to have as many talented players as they can put their hands on and right now they have a grasp of Meneses and it behooves them to find out just what they have in their hands. And this thought process that if he is not better than Hoskins [which he isn't] then its no great shakes if he is lost to another team is in my opinion one of the reasons that we seem forever to be chasing the other big money teams in baseball.

And I believe its why we were outbid on Machado. If I have read it once, I have read it 100 times..."no big deal, we will simply sign hm in the off season as a free agent." Really? Not from where I sit and not from where the Dodgers sat. In their minds there was a division to be won, a pennant to be chased and a future HOFer to be wooed and what better opportunity than in their clubhouse in the middle of a pennant race.

I have not seen Meneses play and I respect opinions like yours and andyb. But I know this guy is playing on the same field and facing the same pitchers as Altherr, Cozens, Plouffe, Valentin and Walding, all guys who were in Philadelphia this year.

And he is dominating offensively almost all of them.

[julio]

I'd really like to see Meneses in September because it's a good story and you never know, especially considering this team still needs pop. But unless he turns out to be better than Rhys Hoskins it's not going to be any great loss for the Phillies if he breaks out somewhere else.

That, of course, is the difficulty. Do you want to bench Hoskins, or Nick Williams or Carlos Santana, so we can "see" Joey Meneses in September? If we're in contention? If the Phils do that, and Meneses struggles, and we miss the post-season because of it?

I note that Meneses is not an on-base machine. His OBP is high this season because his BA is high; his BB% is 7.4%, which is OK, but not exactly high. His SLG is high this season; part of that is the BA, but part is that his ISO, at .220, is higher than he's ever produced before - to the extent that, to me at least, it looks suspicious. A sudden 50% increase in ISO, at age 26? Is is sustainable? Is it technically assisted?

If the Phils had Rico Brogna at 1B, I'd say give Meneses a shot. But we don't. There's nobody I want to see on the bench so we can "find out" about Joey Meneses. So trade him - if anybody else thinks he's worth giving us something in return.

[California_Dreamin]

julio..which really is my point. Right now, he is property of the Phils and to simply let him go as a free agent seems silly and short sighted. He is an asset, cash in on it.

[Philsmania]

What nobody is addressing is how we get Meneses on to the currently-full forty man roster while also making room for Eikhoff and Florimon who will be coming off the 60-day DL. Which three guys get DFA'd?

[zambonir]

I wouldn't make that statement about anyone other than a RH 1B. LH OF? Keep him. RH 3B? Keep him. But he's just not that valuable. There's nothing to cash in on. The value of keeping him in the organization until it's time to make the Rule V decision probably exceeds the return of a PTBNL or cash, and his trade value in November is probably the same (maybe even higher) than it is now. If that's not true, if an AL contender actually wanted to roll the dice and a 40-man spot on a guy who's never faced major league pitching in the heat of a playoff race, then great, they should trade him. At the same time his value may be higher when there are multiple teams making their off-season plans.

Also, he may just re-sign with the Phillies. Yeah, business is business but is seems like they like him and he is grateful for the opportunity and development he's gotten here. A spring training invite might be enough since that's probably all any other team is going to offer him anyway.

This is not the philosophy of the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers and we so often jealously observe those teams gobbling up more talent that they could ever possibly need. That is, until they need to trade said prospect for someone else.

Lots of teams have given up on Chris Carter, the Yankees included. Meneses may be young and unknown whereas Carter was older and declining but the story of Carter (and Tommy Joseph) is the story of every RH 1B/DH.

What nobody is addressing is how we get Meneses on to the currently-full forty man roster while also making room for Eikhoff and Florimon who will be coming off the 60-day DL. Which three guys get DFA'd?

Obviously it will be near-impossible to get Meneses on the 40. Even if Eickhoff and Florimon never come off the DL they probably want to add a pitcher. You could delete Walding or Meneses but that would be pretty unfair given their equal AAA performance (and Walding is more useful, if so far inept). You could delete Leiter. Hard to think of a third guy.

I'm sure the Phillies would rather have Florimon than Meneses. Altherr too. The Bour trade was probably the true end of any chance Meneses had.

Can you even trade a player who is signed to a minor league deal but isn't under long-term control? Typically those guys are just granted their release if another team wants to put them on the 40.

[Austinfan]

Normally, I wouldn't consider Meneses worth keeping, or giving up anything to do so, but the one thing that matters with a young player (even an "older" young player) is progress - because that may mean they're figuring out how to raise their game.

pre-All star .300 BA .220 ISO, 7.0% BB% (4 IBB), 21% K%
post-All star .370 BA, .220 ISO, 10.0% BB% (1BB), 19% K%

He has a .366 BABIP, but he had a .354 last season, .388 in A+ ball two years ago, so this seems to be a norm, his BABIP dropped his first year at A+ and AA, suggesting it's a product of hard contact once he adjusts to a higher level of competition, not luck.

His ISO has jumped from .111 last year and .148/.095 the season before.

To me, he looks like a hitter who took a while to both make good contact and hit for power, now he looks like he's learning to be more selective - and that may be making him an even better hitter.
You'd want your scouts to confirm, but if he is becoming a high contact hitter with real power who won't get himself out, he has a real shot at being a top ML hitter.
Brandon Moss didn't get his shot until he was 28. He then hit 95 HRs in 3 1/2 years.

[zambonir]

That's the thing, I'm at peace with it if he's Brandon Moss and he leaves for nothing (but hey, even Moss got a September call-up). Also Moss is lefthanded and could play the OF (at the time, at least). The reason it was terrible to lose Moss is the Phillies actually could have used him. They were stuck with expensive/declining talent and, IIRC, preferred inferior players when they might have used him earlier in 2012. But that's not the case with this team as it currently stands, with Hoskins/Santana/Bour (to say nothing of Cozens, Walding and Altherr, who are all blocking him for a September spot on the 40).