I officially hate this Phillies team

[zambonir]

We had plus SP. It wasn't enough.

But it was. They won a lot. It's the crapshoot from here.

Would love to see Ranger get the QO. And agreed there is risk in running it back and locking up more old guys but we have no other options. Nobody in the minors and new FAs will all have their warts too (Alonso, for instance. Or the insane $ for Tucker). If it was easy to get a cheaper younger replacement for JT they would not have to keep him, of course. But that is why he won't be as cheap as we'd like. He'll make less money though, so the overall line-up won't be that much more expensive (once you replace Kepler with Crawford and pay Kyle).

The model is the Dodgers, a team that flopped in '22 and '23, including its veteran stars Betts and Freeman. They answered that with more money. Crazy amounts when you consider how much they wasted on relievers. But if we want to be among the best, whether in the NLDS or the WS, maybe they do need Tucker (just as LA added Ohtani) or to give Ranger the bigger deal (just as LA got Yamamoto and Snell and Sasaki).

[zambonir]

I'd be willing to keep him and his $ if his ego allowed him to be a happy short-side of platoon player, but that obviously is impossible.

I think anything is possible. It seemed impossible Taijuan Walker would be a key piece not once but twice (after his inflammatory tweet in '23 and after his performance in '24). But I also think there are probably 10 GMs who think more highly of Nick than you do (and one of them is ours, clearly). I don't know when you last attended a Phillies game but he is also still a beloved player at CBP. Philly loves a diva as much as it loves a gritty guy. (I like him but want him gone too, simply because he is no longer a potent enough bat. Neither is JT but he's a catcher. Bohm has never been as good a hitter as Nick, but he's a better player now.)

[allentown]

Bohm has certainly been a better hitter than Castellanos in some years. Over the last 4 seasons, Bohm has an OPS+ of 104 vs 100 for Castellanos. In fact, Castellanos only led Bohm in OPS+ for one of his seasons in Philly. Over that period, Bohm has only 1 fewer RBI in fewer AB and is very likely to be the better hitter and RBI producer next season.

[allentown]

The model is the Dodgers, a team that flopped in '22 and '23, including its veteran stars Betts and Freeman. They answered that with more money.

The difference between the Dodgers and the Phillies is the Dodgers Japanese stars.

[zambonir]

Yeah but Bohm has never had three offensive seasons as good as Nick's three best seasons in his career, and he's not likely to ever. Even by WAR, Nick's four best were 2.2, 2.8. 2.9 and 3.1, while Bohm's are 3.0, 1.3, and why even mention two others?

Of course it's unfortunate the Phillies chose to pay Nick for past performance, but it's equally unfortunate Alec is merely a decent player during his peak and more affordable age years.

[zambonir]

They don't have to be Japanese though. Free agent market was admittedly thin. The real difference, and I can't imagine you'd disagree, is still the Dodgers' superior front office and development acumen. The core is quite a bit less homegrown than their past teams but the talent on the 2020 roster was insane, and this team has almost 12 WAR from Smith, Muncy and Pages while we have just 5.1 from Stott, Bohm and Marsh (and we didn't even develop Marsh).

[dcsman]

Can Turner play RF?

LF Marsh
CF Crawford
RF Turner
SS Bo Bichette?
3B Bohm
2B Stott - although open to alternatives (Gleyber Torres? Brandon Lowe? Ha-Seong Kim?)
1B Harper
C Realmuto for no more than 3 years if the deal is right and give more time to Marchan as backup
DH Schwarber for no more than 3 years if deal is right

Alonso would be okay too if cheaper than Schwarber.

[zambonir]

Turner isn't going anywhere. He was a great SS this year. Though the Bichette scenario is interesting. I think you are over-thinking it there though. You could move Marsh to RF in that scenario. It's not even clear Crawford is a better CF than Marsh, especially not yet.

The "no more than three years" thing is a fantasy because if you let those guys walk over that, their replacements are both going to be worse. Alonso might be okay but we need his kind of bat in addition to Kyle, not a RH DH instead of Kyle.

[bigegypt0417]

LOL

Yep.

And this fanbase is SO patient with young players.

[allentown]

What does t

Yeah but Bohm has never had three offensive seasons as good as Nick's three best seasons in his career, and he's not likely to ever. Even by WAR, Nick's four best were 2.2, 2.8. 2.9 and 3.1, while Bohm's are 3.0, 1.3, and why even mention two others?

What's your point. You said Castellanos IS a better hitter. Now you've demonstrated that Castellanos USED TO BE a better hitter. I posted data showing that over the past 4 seasons in Philly, Bohm has actually been the better hitter in the world of today and the past 4 seasons. In his most recent Philly season, Casty has an OPS+ of only 88. That makes him, in the world of today, a below average hitter, in addition to being an awful fielder.

[zambonir]

I said:

Bohm has never been as good a hitter as Nick, but he's a better player now.

[allentown]

You said NEVER been as good a hitter as. The past 4 years he's been a slightly better hitter.

[zambonir]

He has been better than Nick over the last four years because Nick is washed up. But Bohm during his equivalent years age-wise was never as good as NIck was. It looked like he might be for about five weeks last year, but nope. And Nick has a 13 career WAR to Bohm's 5, even while being negative for two of the last four years (and zero in 2020). Bohm still might not catch him.

[allentown]

I don't disagree with that, but unfortunately we paid big bucks for 'didn't you used to be Nick Castellanos". The Nick we had was only better than Bohm in one of four seasons.

[andyb]

Criticizing Nick for 5 years does not change the act that we owe him $20 million next year no matter what. It also does not change the fact that Bohm is a mediocre overall player. Decent hitter for average with little power at a power position that he is still average or below average at defensively.

That is about $30 million or so on the payroll next year not contributing a whole lot of WAR as we try to replace JT, Ranger, Bader, and Schwarber - actual positive WAR guys.

It is a problem to solve and figuring out which average offensive player is better than the other really does not matter. What matters is whether we can move them for something positive (unlikely with Nick, small chance with Bohm) if we think integrating guys like Crawford and Miller is the solution over the next season and a half.

[zambonir]

Agreed. It is less about either player as it is what happens when you can't develop a 25 year-old into a star and also pay 30 year-olds for what they did at 25 instead. They also just both happen to be the guys who weren't able to replace Rhys's offensive production (and 3.0 WAR in '22), though each of them took a shot at it (Nick in '23 Bohm in '24).

What no GM can do, I think is guarantee how guys will hit in October.

[EastFallowfield]

One thing I do hate about this organization is after these heartbreaking losses I wish their social media team would take down the posts from yesterday when there was still a sliver of hope, cause you still get the 'we're ready for game 4' type posts when we know they weren't really all that ready.

[zambonir]

That's just because social media sucks/doesn't like chronological algorithms. You wouldn't want to delete everything (including the comments) but also all the angry comments (both at the events and complaining about outdated cheerful posts) are still engagement and what social media rewards. Which also sucks.

[Deadgmwalking]

What no GM can do, I think is guarantee how guys will hit in October.

Jeff Luhnow did pretty well in that regard and the boys James Click inherited from him did just as well unfortunately...

[zambonir]

Well, the 2017 team cheated. And was James Click really so smart as to know his .700 OPS rookie shortstop would not only replace Correa easily but be the WS MVP, and that 38 year-old Yuri Gurriel would stink all season but thrive in October? It's a great thing to plan for if you can! Arguably that is exactly what the Phillies hoped they might get from Casty, and Bryce for that matter.

But that is still just luck and randomness. Have good players and a good teams for five-six years and they are probably gonna deliver on a few post-seasons. The Phillies did for 1 1/2 of the four so far, just in a frustratingly linear downward way. The Dodgers didn't really hit so far either (well, against the Reds they did).