Houston Rebuild

[Austinfan]

Thought it might put things in perspective to look at how the Astros turned it around.

They were horrible from 2011-2013: 56, 55 and 51 wins. Got to 86 wins in 2015.
Lost the world series in 2005 and treaded water through 2009, with an average age of 31.6
So basically the Phillies from 2012 to 2015 but worse!

2017 Astros:
C McCann (33) - traded for last two years of his contract (2yr/$34M) with Yankees picking up $11M for two young pichers, Abreu was BP #81
1B Gurriel (33) - Cuban, signed for 5yr/$47M at 31
2B Altuve (27) - LA signing in 2007 for $15K
SS Correa (27) - #1 (2012)
3B Bregman (23) - #2 (2015)
OF Marisnick (26) - part of 6 player trade in 2014
CF Springer (27) - #11 (2011) - breakout season at age 26, up another notch at 27
RF Reddick (30) - FA-2017 4yr/$52M
DH Beltron (40) - FA-2017 1yr/$14M
IF Gonzalez (28) - 2011 trade for minor league pitcher who never made the show
C Gattis (30) - traded in 2015 for Mike Foltynewicz (#19 - 2010), now starting for the Braves and 3B Rio Ruix (4th rd 2012)
LF Aoki (35) - waivers, 1yr/$5.5M

Fiers (32) - 2015 trade, OF Santana, CF Phillips (6th rd 2012), P Houser (2nd rd 2011), P Hader
McCullers (23) - #41 (2012)
Keuchel (29) - 7th rd (2009)
Musgrove (24) - trade 2012, 9 player deal centered around Happ going to Toronto
Morton (33) - FA 2017 2yr/$14M
Paulino (24) - LA 2010 - $875K
Peacock (29) - 2013 trade, throw in, Chris Carter for Lowrie and Rodriquez

Giles (26) - 2016 trade, Velasquez, Eshelman (2nd rd), Appel
Devenski (26) - 2012 trade, player to be named later in Brett Myers deal
Feliz (24) - LA signing, after Oakland signing voided
Harris (32) - 2017 FA, 2yr/$5M

5 of the 6 key players were drafted, 3 in the 1st, 1 in the 2nd and one in the 7th
Key trade was for Giles
Trade for Fiers was lopsided against Houston and may hurt down the road.
A number of veteran FA signings for depth, most similar to Saunders/Kendrick, in the $7-14M range and short-term.
Only one major LA signing, Paulino, no major FA signings.

The key is hitting on a few core players, they have three in Altuve, Correa and Springer, and a couple core pitchers.
You can patch with veterans and fill in with second tier prospects around the core guys.
Goes to show that if you draft high, eventually things will turn around.
If you can get lucky with a cheap LA signing, that just makes life easier.

[fish]

Man, their pro scouts are good. Didn't realize Devenski dates back to the 2012 Brett Myers deal.

[Philsmania]

One thing that jumps out at me is the number of players who went to Houston during the Ed Wade era (2008-11) and Altuve actually came into the organization during the Tim Purpora regime's reign. And all of this is despite the fact that the Astros blew two consecutive 1-1 picks (Appel and Aiken, as well as the butterfly effect which cost them 5th round pick Nix) and traded productive MLer Villar away for a minor leaguer who has not made The Show. I guess it goes to show that even well-executed plans will have some moves that don't work out.

They traded a lot of prospects but they've hit on the ones they've traded.

[Austinfan]

Trust the Process.
Hinkie had the right idea, accumulate assets because you can't control luck, you can control the number of lottery tickets you hold.
I actually was surprised how mediocre the Houston rebuild was, they got extremely lucky with Altuve, and the rest was basically picking high.
Missed on Appel and Aiken, traded Foltynewicz, that's a lot of 1st rd picks gone.
Their trades were meh, overpaid for Fiers, Giles was pretty even, Oswalt was good, Gattis was meh.
Where they seemed to do best was the "throw ins," as we've seen with Eickhoff, hard bargaining for "minor" elements of a trade can pay off down the road. Musgrove, Devenski, Marisnick.

You need some luck, we pick #1 and there is no sure fire star, next summer hopefully we'll get that big star.
You need some skill, Springer was #11, if Haseley turns out to be a .900 OPS OF in 3-4 years we'll be in great shape.
You need to hit some later picks, Keuchel has been a key to their rotation, we hit on Altherr (8th rd).
You need some patience, while some of their picks hit the majors quickly, some others needed 4-5 years.

[zambonir]

Man, their pro scouts are good. Didn't realize Devenski dates back to the 2012 Brett Myers deal.

And whoever that was probably got fired! (They cleaned house that August.)

[Philsmania]

Man, their pro scouts are good. Didn't realize Devenski dates back to the 2012 Brett Myers deal.

And whoever that was probably got fired! (They cleaned house that August.)

True about the cleaning house part. The Astros' 2011 ownership change was pretty much the closest we've come to hostile takeover of a ML organization, from foisting the switch the AL on the fans who hated it to the massive front office overhaul. Luhnow came in essentially pledging to be an organization that pushed the envelope in relying upon analytics. Even Tal Smith who was essentially Mr. Astro and was involved with the organization for all but a handful of years since its founding got fired.

[allentown]

Wade has successes in Philly, as well. He took a ton of flak, for what I still believe were largely ownership issues. He held the Phillies young core together so it could later emerge as a WC team and a lot of the home-grown pieces were signed under him. He had a problem with deadline deals and an obsession with acquiring middle relievers.

[zambonir]

We can only hope something similar is happening here, though obviously Gillick and Amaro did not draft nearly as well (and squandered assets pursuing more vets). But we're still leaning on the old regime for all of our controllable starting pitchers besides Velasquez and Eshelman (including Eflin and Thompson), the other Rangers/Hamels guys and the likes of Herrera, Franco, Crawford, Altherr, and Hoskins.

[Austinfan]

It's harder to see what's happening here, because we're basically where Houston was in 2013.
By 2019-20 we'll have a far better idea of the talent in the system, and a lot of these players will have arrived or flamed out.
C: Alfaro, is he the hot shot or a guy who can't handle ML pitching, Knapp, Grullon
1B: Hoskins, Joseph is trade bait
2B: Kingery, Hernandez is trade bait
SS: Crawford, Galvis is trade bait
3B: Franco, but watch Walding
LF: Williams, Haseley, Randolph
CF: Herrera, Moniak, Tocci
RF: Altherr, Cozens, Tromp
Nola, PIvetta, Eflin, Lively, Velasquez, Eickhoff, Thompson, Eshelman, Anderson, Kilome, El Garcia

We probably have more talent at this point than Houston 3 years ago, and will probably pick #1 this summer
So it really comes down to 2-3 trades where we have to pick the right players to move and the right targets to obtain.
I don't think free agency will play a big role, it's nice to talk about Harper, et al, but unless it's a small market team, they're probably not moving. And the rare elite player who moves is likely to end up in NY or LA. We're competing for the next tier of FAs.
And just say no to over 30, overpaid SPs. We've seen too many pitchers age 32-35 crash and burn the last few years.

It comes down to 4 position players who are core players (4+ WAR guys), 3 SPs, and a closer and setup man.
Get those 9 guys right and you can patch and trade and sign players to fill the other 16 spots and win a lot of games.
So if Altherr, Moniak, Haseley, Kingery, Hoskins are for real, Crawford can be a defensive SS, Franco can be inconsistent and Grullon can be the great defense, no hit catcher and we'll still have a heck of a team.
Same way Nola, Pivetta, and Eflin can be the anchor of a rotation, and Therrien and Velasquez in the pen, then you can fill in with Lively and Eickhoff and Ramos and . . .

[Philsmania]

Wade has successes in Philly, as well. He took a ton of flak, for what I still believe were largely ownership issues. He held the Phillies young core together so it could later emerge as a WC team and a lot of the home-grown pieces were signed under him. He had a problem with deadline deals and an obsession with acquiring middle relievers.

I think making trades in general was Wade's downfall, not just at the deadline. He was a guy who would always blink in the end and other GM's knew it. I don't think I can come up with a single trade he made that we got the better of, unless it is true that he did all the legwork on the Stocker for Abreu deal, as some have said. Ironically, his best deal may have been the Rolen trade. If we kept Polanco at third (and never signed Bell and stuck with Anderson at second for one more year in 2003) from 2002 all the way through 2012, we probably actually win that trade.

[schillingfan]

One of the reasons Ed Wade was so bad at trades was that he always insisted on "major league ready" players. One can speculate as to the reasons, but I suspect the reason for that was public relations. Trade for people nobody has heard of? The fans will call the team cheap. This could have been Wade's own cowardice in protecting his own hide, or, more likely, following the instructions of Monty for public relations purposes. In contrast, I think Middleton perceives that the best public relations comes from bringing a winner to town.

[Austinfan]

Trades may make or break Klentak, not the July trades for marginal prospects that's the theme of the trade thread, but trading prospects.
Phillies are starting to run up against the 40 man roster limit, and they're going to lose players if they don't move them.

While one option is to trade for prospects at lower levels that don't have to be protected, that also delays the rebuild to a minor extent.

A second option is to use prospects in trades for veterans under contract, because this team may need some "bridges," while the mass of talent will arrive around 2020, at some point you have to stop accumulating assets you can't protect and improve the ML product. So garner a nigh priced starter with a couple years left on his contract as an alternative to overpaying in free agency.

A third solution is to package prospects for blue chips, but there are few blue chips and teams are reluctant to move them, so this is not easy to execute. A more likely alternative is to trade from a position of strength (OF) to one of relative weakness (pitching, 3B).

[zambonir]

Wade was certainly hampered by his owners and advisers when it came to those big trades too, though he (even more so than Amaro) was no more even-tempered than Dallas Green (and never mind the war of words with Rolen or Schilling, he ended up getting into a fight with a player in Houston too).

He and the owners were just not interested in rebuilding during that time, thus the likes of Omar Daal and Mike Timlin.

Anyway, five of the eight position players and three of the starting pitchers in 2008 were Wade guys. Think we'll see 10 players from the Amaro era on the next playoff team?

[allentown]

Trades may make or break Klentak, not the July trades for marginal prospects that's the theme of the trade thread, but trading prospects

a

You have to continue to add minor league talent, however you can. That is what builds the mass of excess talent in the minors which permits trading for MLB players. It also leads to talents, such as Pivetta and Lively, who may become more than minor trade fodder. Yes, we will need to do some compression trades. Keep the top talent, but we have a wealth of mid-level talent and perhaps half of it will have to be traded. Traded our upper level minor league mid-level talent for higher ceiling, lower probability talent is a fine way to avoid Rule 5 losses. Perhaps 3/4 of the guys we'll get back never amount to enough to matter, but that other 1/4 -- that's why you do it.

[Austinfan]

Very likely, given that RA made most of the 2015 trades and oversaw all the drafts until 2016.
So the bulk of prospects are from his decisions, good and bad.

C: Alfaro, Rupp, Knapp, Grullon
1B: Joseph, Perkins
2B: Hernandez
SS: Galvis, Crawford
3B: Franco
LF: Williams, Pullin, Randoph
CF: Herrera, Quinn, Tocci
RF: Altherr, Cozens
P: Nola, Pivetta, Lively, Eickhoff, Thompson, Leiter, Anderson, El Garcia, Kilome
P: Therrien, Neris, Ramos, Garcia, Davis, Arano

Klentak's moves won't be felt (other than future trades) until around 2020 when the 2016 and 2017 drafts start arriving, other than Velasquez, if he develops. Now it's very possible a number of those names will be dealt for players who are better fits to the team Klentak wants to build.

But it's hard denying that RA didn't leave a solid organization behind him, whether it was his or the FO's choice to delay those moves by 2-3 years, well, that's an interesting question.

[zambonir]

You forgot Hoskins and Kingery too.

But it's also possible - albeit an extreme worst-case scenario - that none of Alfaro, Herrera, Franco, Crawford, Williams and Altherr are in the 2020 starting eight.

Of course Pat Gillick inherited a second-place team 88-win team that already had Howard, Utley, Rollins and Burrell (plus Thome and Abreu!). We know Klentak has probably not inherited anyone who is well on their way to being ROTY (though there are certainly possibilities) or MVP in the next two seasons.

[allentown]

Even more to the point, Gillick inherited a system which was about to promote Hamels and Victorino.