Future Bullpen

[Slinging_Southpaw]

With all the young arms we have at the Major League level, I've been wondering about some of their roles, since not all these guys are going to be in the rotation. At this point, we're thin as far as lefties in the rotation and bullpen, also late innings arms.
Hector Neris or Edubray Ramos may very well take up those late innings roles, but the guy who intrigues me as possible future closer is Mark Appel. He hasn't dominated in the starters role like the scouts say his stuff would lead you to believe he would, plus he's only managed to pitch 100+ innings once in 4 years. There was even some question whether he would be added to the 40 man roster. With all the other rotation arms, I think it's time to put him in the bullpen and on the fast track to the Majors. An increase in velocity in short stints should make him a weapon and possible future closer.
Even with our shortage of lefty starters, I think they should put Adam Morgan in the pen. He has a problem getting deep into games with elevated pitch counts, which can be avoided in the pen. Plus, it seems he's been passed on the depth chart by enough other starters that they'll probably have to send him down anyways.
Vince Velasquez has the "best stuff", I think he should stay in the rotation, but I would really like to see them try and hit the lottery with a trade. He's the one who has been talked about the most and would probably give us the best shot at picking up an impact bat.

[Philsmania]

Projecting a bullpen for the future is so darn tricky. You almost have to start over again every year. I remember back in 2011, it looked like we were set into the future with the likes of Stutes, DeFratus, Diekmann, Aumont, Savery, Schwimmer, Bastardo and with Giles percolating in the minors.

[donaldorc]

Just waiting for Shilling fan to reply about how fungible relievers are.

[allentown]

Unless we totally abuse the opposing GM, trading VV doesn't actually add any talent to the organization and is trading a guy who's young enough to be part of our next contender. It just delays the time we can contend. That's why I want to see TPTB use their $ advantage to add 23+ international players, FA, and assume expensive contracts for eyewash marginal prospects. To trade actual youngish talent, such as VV, for younger prospects is just shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic at best, and at worst gives away a real asset for not very much. The team which trades an MLB player for prospects during the off-season is the loser in the trade more often than not. Results are more favorable at the trade deadline, especially if dealing guys older than VV.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Unless we totally abuse the opposing GM, trading VV doesn't actually add any talent to the organization and is trading a guy who's young enough to be part of our next contender. It just delays the time we can contend. That's why I want to see TPTB use their $ advantage to add 23+ international players, FA, and assume expensive contracts for eyewash marginal prospects. To trade actual youngish talent, such as VV, for younger prospects is just shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic at best, and at worst gives away a real asset for not very much. The team which trades an MLB player for prospects during the off-season is the loser in the trade more often than not. Results are more favorable at the trade deadline, especially if dealing guys older than VV.

That's what I'm all about. I have no interest trading Velasquez for "fair value."

[schillingfan]

Just waiting for Shilling fan to reply about how fungible relievers are.

They are, they are! One of the reasons they are fungible is that they can seldom string more than two good years together. It's up one year, down the other. If I were a GM be looking for the guy who had some success in the past, coming off a bad year.

[Austinfan]

Some RPs are reliable, hold on to them closely.

Most of your bullpen will be young guys trying to prove consistency or older RPs trying to show they still have something, and since the variance in WAR for your last 4 of 7 RPs is probably between -1 and 1 as a group, don't spend much money or resources there.

Appel has funny stuff, he throw a high velocity 4 seamer that is straight and gets pounded, in college his out pitch was a two seamer in the low 90s, and I think the Phillies were trying to get him back to his college repertoire before he was injured. Not sure his stuff translates to the pen, and big drop in value to move a starter to the pen if he's not among your top 3 RPs (who often exceed 1 WAR).

Pivetta might be the best bet to convert to the pen if he doesn't develop two reliable off speed pitches.

Morgan doesn't strike me as a LOOGY type, and his FB isn't bullpen worthy.

On the other hand Rodriquez may be a top LH RP in another year, velocity jumped out of the pen and he has a good breaking pitch.
Sev don't get no respect, but he's only 23, throwing 93-94 out of the pen, and with four potential pitches, he only has to refine 1-2 secondary offerings.

Keep an eye on Aruno, Rivero and Therrien.

Reason they might trade VV is if they don't think he'll hold up physically as a #1, and they see Nola, Eickhoff and Eflin as more durable #2/#3 candidates. In that case, they would be trading while his perceived value is high (any arm trouble and his value tumbles). I think it would take a lot to pry him away, but he's gamble to keep as well, ignoring his one great game he had a mediocre season, and has never started close to 30 games in a year.

[zambonir]

Relief pitching is a constantly evolving thing, it is definitely not like it was 10 or 20 years ago. There are more talented players in the non-closer role (some of whom are still "failed starters" but some with seriously good stuff), and the days of "chase the starter to get to the bullpen" are giving way to "get the starter out before the third time through and use your bullpen." It's always a copycat league so after this season the possibility of higher-end middle (multi-inning) relievers and managers being more conscious of leverage instead of inning also looms.

It's not really the pitchers themselves who are fungible, it's just that the role is inherently small sample, you have to do it for five-six years to even produce a sample that's like two seasons of a starter. And if we evaluated all but the very best starters in the same samples/chunks as we do a single relief pitcher, they would probably have a similar cluster of great/average/awful (i.e. - he was great in April/May, awful in June, injured in July, good in August, average in September).

You can figure out who the good and very best ones were but you still don't really want to overpay or lock in long contracts, if they are young and affordable, you just ride out their ups and downs. But pretty much everyone in the game knows that now so there's no longer a Moneyball type advantage. It's not a very fun part of the game but we are just going to see more and more specialization, because they have the data, and the most on-board managers have the ability to use it on the fly for inning-by-inning matchups.

[schillingfan]

It's not really the pitchers themselves who are fungible, it's just that the role is inherently small sample, you have to do it for five-six years to even produce a sample that's like two seasons of a starter. And if we evaluated all but the very best starters in the same samples/chunks as we do a single relief pitcher, they would probably have a similar cluster of great/average/awful (i.e. - he was great in April/May, awful in June, injured in July, good in August, average in September).

I think it's more a matter of overuse, which is why they become fungible. If you have a relief pitcher in the 7th or 8th inning who you can generally count on, then given the contraction of complete games and the reduction of a starter to 6 or 7 innings, then that reliable guy is going to get used a lot, particularly if your team isn't a run scoring machine. The manager keeps going to the well and the "reliable" guy gets overused and the arm injured. That's ultimately why we lost the 93 world series as the bullpen was just gassed.

If I were GM I would be very leery of any set up reliever who had a lot of innings and/or was used a lot of days in a row and/or (not sure if this is a statistic that anyone keeps) gets up a lot to warm up in the pen, even if he doesn't get into the game.

To me it's just so logical. Psychology would say the manager is going to overuse the reliable relief pitcher and orthopedics say the overused arm is more likely to be hurt.

[zambonir]

I agree that avoiding hot/overused guys the next season is good policy but that comes back to age/cost. If you're paying for over-30 free agents like JC Romero or Roger Mason (or Brad Lidge) and they crater, you're stuck with them and their salary. If it's Justin DeFratus or Jake Dieckman you ride it out or move on. And when Antonio Bastardo gets older/more expensive, you move on. And if you successfully develop a Giles or Madson you can replace the injured guy w/o it costing money initially.

With analytics this shouldnt 'be that hard to manage, not an exact science, but a lot more precise than it used to be. You're not just looking at pitch counts or IPs, but types of pitches thrown and the specific pitcher's mechanics and wind-up vs. stretch and how high-leverage each AB was (and yeah, warm-ups too. No way they don't track that). And is just another reason why you need managers and pitching coaches to be on board with the data revolution. It's okay to go with your gut on a match-up or whatever but it's 100% in the manager's own interest to be smart about usage if it gives you better pitching in in the fall. Of course, on a contending team some franchises will just ride their guys into the ground, especially if they are free agents to-be.

[donaldorc]

I think it's more a matter of overuse, which is why they become fungible. If you have a relief pitcher in the 7th or 8th inning who you can generally count on, then given the contraction of complete games and the reduction of a starter to 6 or 7 innings, then that reliable guy is going to get used a lot, particularly if your team isn't a run scoring machine. The manager keeps going to the well and the "reliable" guy gets overused and the arm injured. That's ultimately why we lost the 93 world series as the bullpen was just gassed.

Best explanation of the fungibility of relief pitchers I've read yet.