For Delusional 2016 Phillies Phans

[andyb]

The league definitely looks a little weaker now than it did at the beginning of the year. The Cardinals and then most teams in the West have underperformed. There are a bunch of bad teams out there and our improvement in the starting rotation might mean we are legitimately better than the bad teams (Braves, Reds, Brewers, Padres).

[EDmuch]

I agree that our pitching puts us above the "legitimately bad" teams.

[Philsmania]

Ruf is what he is

. I thought the Howard-Ruf platoon might be productive but both have flopped.

A player that hasn't been given a full shot to succeed.
With the roster as is, there is absolutely no reason, no one is being blocked, for him not to be given a couple months to either prove himself or flop. If he flops, we move on and need someone at 1B next year. If he succeeds we at least have someone to get us through to Hoskins or someone else.
THERE IS SIMPLY NO REASON TO NOT GIVE HIM THIS CHANCE. THERE IS NOTHING TO LOSE AND EVERYTHING TO GAIN.

Since 2014, he's been putting up the same level of production. And, prior to then, he was never considered a significant prospect. What is it with some guys that make people say "He's thiiiiiiiiiiiiiiis close to turning it around and becoming a star, just give him a chance"? See also, Domonic Brown.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Ruf is what he is

. I thought the Howard-Ruf platoon might be productive but both have flopped.

A player that hasn't been given a full shot to succeed.
With the roster as is, there is absolutely no reason, no one is being blocked, for him not to be given a couple months to either prove himself or flop. If he flops, we move on and need someone at 1B next year. If he succeeds we at least have someone to get us through to Hoskins or someone else.
THERE IS SIMPLY NO REASON TO NOT GIVE HIM THIS CHANCE. THERE IS NOTHING TO LOSE AND EVERYTHING TO GAIN.

Since 2014, he's been putting up the same level of production. And, prior to then, he was never considered a significant prospect. What is it with some guys that make people say "He's thiiiiiiiiiiiiiiis close to turning it around and becoming a star, just give him a chance"? See also, Domonic Brown.

This is the problem with many here. Did anything in my post say anything about Darin Ruf becoming a star? Not every player has to become a star for the next ten years to be a useful part of the team. If Darin Ruf could be an average ML First Baseman for a couple years, he could be a cheap option to get you through to that next star. Maybe he keeps you from signing a free agent to a team crippling contract. That's worth something. Maybe some other team sees him as an inexpensive piece of their team and offers you something at the trade deadline(RH power bats were a hot commodity last year). If he could be that guy and there is a heckuva lot better chance that with consistent AB's he could be that guy, than for Ryan Howard who has been given every possible chance to succeed to actually be that player.

[flyers19rw]

Ruf is what he is

. I thought the Howard-Ruf platoon might be productive but both have flopped.

A player that hasn't been given a full shot to succeed.
With the roster as is, there is absolutely no reason, no one is being blocked, for him not to be given a couple months to either prove himself or flop. If he flops, we move on and need someone at 1B next year. If he succeeds we at least have someone to get us through to Hoskins or someone else.
THERE IS SIMPLY NO REASON TO NOT GIVE HIM THIS CHANCE. THERE IS NOTHING TO LOSE AND EVERYTHING TO GAIN.

Since 2014, he's been putting up the same level of production. And, prior to then, he was never considered a significant prospect. What is it with some guys that make people say "He's thiiiiiiiiiiiiiiis close to turning it around and becoming a star, just give him a chance"? See also, Domonic Brown.

This is the problem with many here. Did anything in my post say anything about Darin Ruf becoming a star? Not every player has to become a star for the next ten years to be a useful part of the team. If Darin Ruf could be an average ML First Baseman for a couple years, he could be a cheap option to get you through to that next star. Maybe he keeps you from signing a free agent to a team crippling contract. That's worth something. Maybe some other team sees him as an inexpensive piece of their team and offers you something at the trade deadline(RH power bats were a hot commodity last year). If he could be that guy and there is a heckuva lot better chance that with consistent AB's he could be that guy, than for Ryan Howard who has been given every possible chance to succeed to actually be that player.

SS, the bottom line with Ruf is that he's been in town for over four years and has not been able to break into the starting lineup as anything but a platoon player. TPTB, from now two administrations, don't see a starting player in Ruf. He hasn't been able to put up numbers worthy of getting more PT than he has. He can't push a broken down, poor fielding, aging guy off of 1B. No offense but I'm ready to move on. Ruf will be thirty in July. It's time for Joseph, Knapp, Stassi, someone else, to get a shot at it.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Ruf is what he is

. I thought the Howard-Ruf platoon might be productive but both have flopped.

A player that hasn't been given a full shot to succeed.
With the roster as is, there is absolutely no reason, no one is being blocked, for him not to be given a couple months to either prove himself or flop. If he flops, we move on and need someone at 1B next year. If he succeeds we at least have someone to get us through to Hoskins or someone else.
THERE IS SIMPLY NO REASON TO NOT GIVE HIM THIS CHANCE. THERE IS NOTHING TO LOSE AND EVERYTHING TO GAIN.

Since 2014, he's been putting up the same level of production. And, prior to then, he was never considered a significant prospect. What is it with some guys that make people say "He's thiiiiiiiiiiiiiiis close to turning it around and becoming a star, just give him a chance"? See also, Domonic Brown.

This is the problem with many here. Did anything in my post say anything about Darin Ruf becoming a star? Not every player has to become a star for the next ten years to be a useful part of the team. If Darin Ruf could be an average ML First Baseman for a couple years, he could be a cheap option to get you through to that next star. Maybe he keeps you from signing a free agent to a team crippling contract. That's worth something. Maybe some other team sees him as an inexpensive piece of their team and offers you something at the trade deadline(RH power bats were a hot commodity last year). If he could be that guy and there is a heckuva lot better chance that with consistent AB's he could be that guy, than for Ryan Howard who has been given every possible chance to succeed to actually be that player.
SS, the bottom line with Ruf is that he's been in town for over four years and has not been able to break into the starting lineup as anything but a platoon player. TPTB, from now two administrations, don't see a starting player in Ruf. He hasn't been able to put up numbers worthy of getting more PT than he has. He can't push a broken down, poor fielding, aging guy off of 1B. No offense but I'm ready to move on. Ruf will be thirty in July. It's time for Joseph, Knapp, Stassi, someone else, to get a shot at it.

Spring Training slash lines.
Howard .220/.304/.784
Ruf .286/.385/1.027
Starting First Baseman Opening Day=Ryan Howard(started 23 out of first 26 games despite leading the team in errors as a First Baseman).
There are 35 million reasons why Howard is still at 1B.

[Austinfan]

I think this is a great read on the team:

fangraphs.com/blogs/the-phil ... ect-start/

They're not a contender, but they've developed some of the pieces needed to become a contender.

[andyb]

Spring Training slash lines.
Howard .220/.304/.784
Ruf .286/.385/1.027
Starting First Baseman Opening Day=Ryan Howard(started 23 out of first 26 games despite leading the team in errors as a First Baseman).
There are 35 million reasons why Howard is still at 1B.

The couple other reasons is that Ruf is really not that good and has never outplayed Howard over a significant stretch when both were healthy. Those start statistics are the result of a platoon where Ruf missed 3 or 4 games against LHP when he was hurt.

It is time for the Phillies to move on from both of them. Now all they need is for someone at AAA to step up and demonstrate that they might be able to put up a 750-800 OPS. Until then they might as well play Howard unless Ruf starts to hit. He has been given lots of chances. Since 2013 he has had 1,259 plate appearances in the minors and majors and hit 37 home runs (with 14 of them coming in 2013 in his first time around the league before pitchers learned how to get him out). He just is not that good and has not come through in the chances he has been given.

[EastFallowfield]

How much of the horrible run differential is due to the awful long man we have?

[julio]

How much of the horrible run differential is due to the awful long man we have?

I believe that Matt Winkleman has done the math on this...

Matt Winkelman ‎@Matt_Winkelman
Oberholtzer, Russell, and Stumpf collectively have allowed 24% of all runs this season
11:04 PM - 2 May 2016

Some other data:

The Phils have allowed 108 runs. They've scored 85.

Starters have allowed 66 runs in 148.1 innings - 4.01 R/9

Gomez, Neris, Hernandez, Hinojosa, Araujo, Bailey, Garcia and Murray have - collectively - allowed 15 runs in 66 innings - 2.05 R/9.

Brett Oberholtzer (15), James Russell (9), and Daniel Stumpf (3) have together allowed 27 runs, in 19 innings - 12.79 R/9.

It would seem like it's time, or very nearly time, to make a change. We need a long man in the bullpen - somebody who can pitch several innings at a time, every few days (not every day, not every other day, but every third day?), without being a punching bag.

Severino Gonzalez?

[Austinfan]

Hellickson should be the long man.
And don't forget Bailey, he's pitched well since he was promoted.
Eflin is next in line to be the 5th starter.

I think this will depend on when they think Eflin is ready to be promoted.
Hellickson simply doesn't have the stamina to start, when he tires his command goes to heck and he gets pounded.
But I think he'd be effective in 2-3 Inning stints out of the pen.

[julio]

Hellickson should be the long man.
And don't forget Bailey, he's pitched well since he was promoted.
Eflin is next in line to be the 5th starter.

I think this will depend on when they think Eflin is ready to be promoted.
Hellickson simply doesn't have the stamina to start, when he tires his command goes to heck and he gets pounded.
But I think he'd be effective in 2-3 Inning stints out of the pen.

Yeah, you said that once before - but that assumes that Zach Eflin is ready to be promoted. If he's not, then what do you do NOW? Hellickson is in the rotation, and you can't move him to long relief without somebody to take his place.

I didn't forget Andrew Bailey - he's in the list of effective relievers I cited. Are you suggesting using him for long relief/mopup duty?

[andyb]

I think Hellickson is fine where he is. He just is a 4th/5th starter type that will have good days and bad days. His first couple of starts probably made us think he was more than that, though reality is now setting in. I want him there for the innings he is providing as well as being a veteran presence on a young staff.

Oberholtzer has definitely been bad of late though it is still a little early to dismiss him. He does have a track record of being able to do that job. We could easily come back in a month and see him doing well and some of the other bullpen arms like Bailey and Gomez doing less well.

[Philsmania]

Hellickson should be the long man.
And don't forget Bailey, he's pitched well since he was promoted.
Eflin is next in line to be the 5th starter.

I think this will depend on when they think Eflin is ready to be promoted.
Hellickson simply doesn't have the stamina to start, when he tires his command goes to heck and he gets pounded.
But I think he'd be effective in 2-3 Inning stints out of the pen.

I think we need Hellickson to be competent as a starter to fetch us something at the deadline.

[flyers19rw]

I think we need Hellickson to be competent as a starter to fetch us something at the deadline.

Wasn't that really the purpose of acquiring him? Taking him out of the rotation kills his value. Stay the course and roll him out there every fifth day.
The Phillies have started out on good footing but lets not delude ourselves into thinking that this team is more than it is. The Phillies are rebuilding; not contending. They're competitive which beats the heck out of what they were the last few seasons. Hopefully, as the season progresses, we get more new blood infused into the roster to put the team into a position to be more than a .500 bunch next season. Sit back and enjoy the growth.

[julio]

Hellickson should be the long man.
And don't forget Bailey, he's pitched well since he was promoted.
Eflin is next in line to be the 5th starter.

I think this will depend on when they think Eflin is ready to be promoted.
Hellickson simply doesn't have the stamina to start, when he tires his command goes to heck and he gets pounded.
But I think he'd be effective in 2-3 Inning stints out of the pen.

I think we need Hellickson to be competent as a starter to fetch us something at the deadline.

We don't need Jeremy Hellickson to return something in trade; it would be nice, but that's pretty clearly not a critical part of the rebuilding/development plan. Hellickson's role is to pitch reasonably competitive innings for the Phillies until such time as a better, younger starting pitcher is ready to take the job. In an ideal world, that time will be in late July, and Hellickson can be traded for whatever the organization can get for him. Also in an ideal world, he'll pitch reasonably competently until that time (whether July or after the 2016 season). So far this season, he's more or less done that. Don't compare him to Vince Velasquez, or to Cole Hamels; compare him to Kyle Kendrick, or David Buchanan - that's what he's replacing.

[tom81]

Hellickson should be the long man.
And don't forget Bailey, he's pitched well since he was promoted.
Eflin is next in line to be the 5th starter.

I think this will depend on when they think Eflin is ready to be promoted.
Hellickson simply doesn't have the stamina to start, when he tires his command goes to heck and he gets pounded.
But I think he'd be effective in 2-3 Inning stints out of the pen.

I think we need Hellickson to be competent as a starter to fetch us something at the deadline.

Let's get this thread back on track. This is the delusional phans thread which implies we are competing this year. Not trading pieces for future value.

[andyb]

Let's get this thread back on track. This is the delusional phans thread which implies we are competing this year. Not trading pieces for future value.

Then we are trading Hellickson for a 1B at the deadline because Eflin and Appel are pitching so well in the majors.

[tom81]

Let's get this thread back on track. This is the delusional phans thread which implies we are competing this year. Not trading pieces for future value.

Then we are trading Hellickson for a 1B at the deadline because Eflin and Appel are pitching so well in the majors.

Or a corner OF!

[donaldorc]

Let's get this thread back on track. This is the delusional phans thread which implies we are competing this year. Not trading pieces for future value.

Yes, yes, tom81! So far they are performing to our delusion and I love it.