For Delusional 2016 Phillies Phans

scorcher 2016-05-01 17:00:32 UTC #61

Ruf's first arbitration year is 2017 so I believe for whatever reason he will be non-tendered by the Phils this off season.

Lucky_Beagle 2016-05-01 18:01:04 UTC #62

Based upon his playing time and results he can't be a big contract if they want to keep him going forward for another year. Now maybe the results are so bad and the future of others so good there isn't a reason to consider him going forward.
Based upon his career pinch hitting numbers so far he doesn't look like much in that regards as a bench bat.

scorcher 2016-05-01 18:35:51 UTC #63

Ruf's career totals today are 688 ab's and a line of .243/.320/.436 with 32 hr's. Not too bad when you look at it this way. Do the Phils go to arb and play hardball with him for next season or spend money on a FA? To me it looks like the only player in the pipeline that could be next years 1st baseman is Joseph. I think they cut loose Ruf and sign someone to a one year stopgap deal until someone in the minors steps up and takes the 1st base job. I think they just don't like Ruf. Myself, I'd like to see what Ruf could do as an everyday 1st baseman next season but the PTB aren't going to bring him back.

baseballoldie 2016-05-01 23:31:11 UTC #64

Phils on pace to win 97 games this year - not a bad start for Coach Mac and the boys. Its certainly not the offense that has the Phillies on this pace. Pitching and defense does win games. And a manager and his relationship with his players can make a difference in the win column. Obviously its early and this pace is likely not going to continue but 70 plus wins for this year is looking more and more like a reality than a pipe dream.

zambonir 2016-05-01 23:54:53 UTC #65

If you think what the Phillies are doing is sustainable, all they have to do is sustain it. No reason to change a thing right now, particularly in the OF where Lough looks decent, Bourjos is a three-tool player and Klentak's emphasis on defensively supporting the pitching staff seems 100% on the money.

Goes for Howard (who is on pace to hit 30 HRs in 450 ABs) too.

If they're still playing .550-600 ball a month from now maybe things get interesting. And if they collapse, maybe you start to tinker. Still pretty confident they don't want the 24th pick in the draft though (last I looked at standings today they were also tied for the second wild card).

The performance is even more impressive if you assume they would fare a lot better in the opening series now.

California_Dreamin 2016-05-02 03:40:25 UTC #66

Look, I claim to be as surprised as the next guy at the Phils 15-10 start and doubt it will continue. But to suggest that the team is doing this with mirrors belies the fact that after a 29-62 start last year the team went 34-37 to finish the season and that included a maddening late September nine game road trip when the team lost 6 games by one run and easily could have won several of them *.

My point is this...over the last nearly 100 games this team has been 49-47, hardly the record of a team of misfits and dead beats and the winning began soon after the team stopped using guys like Williams, O'Sullivan and Harang and began using guys like Nola, Morgan and Eickhoff. So its not like these guys are unused to winning, they were doing it in August and September of last year.

Will it continue? This road trip should be a good test, especially the four games in St. Louis, where the Phils have been historically bad and will enter an arena of a home team smarting after getting swept by the Nationals.

But regardless of how they do over the next 10 games I suspect the Phils rise from the ashes of despair are gone for good and now comes the slow and hopefully steady climb back to playoff contention. The road marked relevancy has clearly been driven and while the path ahead undoubtedly offers some bumps and hair turns along the way, my guess is that we will not be seeing the first draft pick in the nation again anytime soon. So the Phils best take advantage of this golden moment since they are unlikely to have it again for quite some time.*

Austinfan 2016-05-02 11:24:12 UTC #67

The pitching doesn't surprise me, they stockpiled a lot of young arms at higher levels and it's paying off, despite attrition (Mecias, Biddle, Anderson, et al) enough have risen to the top to sustain a solid rotation, and you still have Appel and Eflin as insurance, and Buchanan as a last resort.

The bullpen doesn't surprise, as some have pointed out for years, RPs tend to be variable, so stockpile a bunch of veterans and let them shake out, Russell, Oberholtz fail, Medina injured, Garcia inconsistent, but Hernandez, Gomez come through, Neris and Araujo are young arms and Bailey may be another veteran on the upswing. Safety in numbers.

The hitting is worse than expected, only Lough has lived up to his past history, Ruf is a huge disappointment, Howard, throw some dirt on him, Bourjas, time to cut bait, etc. Sometimes the bear needs antacids.

Slinging_Southpaw 2016-05-02 12:16:06 UTC #68

Austinfan:

The pitching doesn't surprise me, they stockpiled a lot of young arms at higher levels and it's paying off, despite attrition (Mecias, Biddle, Anderson, et al) enough have risen to the top to sustain a solid rotation, and you still have Appel and Eflin as insurance, and Buchanan as a last resort.

The bullpen doesn't surprise, as some have pointed out for years, RPs tend to be variable, so stockpile a bunch of veterans and let them shake out, Russell, Oberholtzer fail, Medina injured, Garcia inconsistent, but Hernandez, Gomez come through, Neris and Araujo are young arms and Bailey may be another veteran on the upswing. Safety in numbers.

The hitting is worse than expected, only Lough has lived up to his past history, Ruf is a huge disappointment, Howard, throw some dirt on him, Bourjas, time to cut bait, etc. Sometimes the bear needs antacids.

I thought the rotation would be solid, bullpen solid, offense certainly better, expecting a resurgence from Bourjos, but watching his swing, I don't see him coming around. I absolutely hate his "all arms swing." I don't see how he got to the Majors like that. He's having the bat knocked out of his hands. I'd rather see Goeddel get his AB's and slotted into the 9 hole. I also expected more stolen bases, with that being a catalyst for the offense, but Hernandez is slumping stealing bases and Bourjos when he actually gets on base(2 walks in 70 AB's ), only shows off his wheels when the ball is in play.
While I'm disappointed in Ruf, I still think it's for the same reason it's always been. So far, through 25 games(started 8 games), he's gotten 17 more AB's than Emmanuel Burriss. He's the only player on this roster who is physically capable of giving you the offensive boost that this team needs. YOU HAVE TO LET HIM HIT HIS WAY OUT OF IT. THERE IS NO OTHER OPTION ON THIS ROSTER!!!!

EDmuch 2016-05-02 12:37:24 UTC #69

Agree on Ruf.

donaldorc 2016-05-02 12:52:21 UTC #70

He's been playing LF, and made a great play yesterday. He probably won't save as many games with his defense like Borjous, so his hitting better come around, or they will need to cut bait on him as well. Time is running out for him.

andyb 2016-05-02 15:32:55 UTC #71

Murphy with a good summary on whether the Phillies can continue the win streak:
philly.com/philly/sports/phi ... cord_.html

There are definitely some good signs in their early performance. The starting rotation is better than projected. Much of this is Velasquez. Nola has pitched as expected. Both Hellickson and Eickhoff have been a little bit better but have shown enough to believe it is sustainable. Morgan is fine in the 5th slot and the hope is that they stay healthy until some younger starters are ready (Appel would be next).

The bullpen has also pitched well of late. I am much more of a skeptic here. Neris has developed a splitter and may be better than his track record. Hernandez is also seemingly healthy now, though he should be the top arm in the bullpen if healthy. Everything else is relatively weak though as I don't think Gomez is really cut out for his role and the rest of the bullpen is not that good. But give them credit for a nice couple of weeks.

On offense we have major holes almost everywhere. We are fine in CF, 3B, and C. 1B and the corner outfield spots are where we need reinforcements and if the team contends into June then I think they will start making some moves. Crawford won't be the first one, but if this team is over .500 at the All Star break he will be up. Whether Williams is ready by that point is an open question. Whether they move on from Howard depends on whether they keep contending and Howard keeps playing poorly. That is the scenario where they would make a move. Otherwise it does not matter that much as they do not have a ready replacement at the moment.

This is a fun start to the season. We have caught some scheduling breaks but also we have taken advantage of them. The starting pitching is the foundation of a contender and makes me think this team can contend for real next year.

tom81 2016-05-02 16:52:06 UTC #72

andyb:

Murphy with a good summary on whether the Phillies can continue the win streak:
philly.com/philly/sports/phi ... cord_.html

There are definitely some good signs in their early performance. The starting rotation is better than projected. Much of this is Velasquez. Nola has pitched as expected. Both Hellickson and Eickhoff have been a little bit better but have shown enough to believe it is sustainable. Morgan is fine in the 5th slot and the hope is that they stay healthy until some younger starters are ready (Appel would be next).

The bullpen has also pitched well of late. I am much more of a skeptic here. Neris has developed a splitter and may be better than his track record. Hernandez is also seemingly healthy now, though he should be the top arm in the bullpen if healthy. Everything else is relatively weak though as I don't think Gomez is really cut out for his role and the rest of the bullpen is not that good. But give them credit for a nice couple of weeks.

On offense we have major holes almost everywhere. We are fine in CF, 3B, and C. 1B and the corner outfield spots are where we need reinforcements and if the team contends into June then I think they will start making some moves. Crawford won't be the first one, but if this team is over .500 at the All Star break he will be up. Whether Williams is ready by that point is an open question. Whether they move on from Howard depends on whether they keep contending and Howard keeps playing poorly. That is the scenario where they would make a move. Otherwise it does not matter that much as they do not have a ready replacement at the moment.

This is a fun start to the season. We have caught some scheduling breaks but also we have taken advantage of them. The starting pitching is the foundation of a contender and makes me think this team can contend for real next year.

Talk about scheduling the next 19 game are against teams who are all currently at or below .500.

Philsmania 2016-05-02 17:01:08 UTC #73

To what extent is the rotation helping the bullpen, pitching later into games and enabling them to hide the less productive members?

Philsmania 2016-05-02 17:02:13 UTC #74

Ruf is what he is. I thought the Howard-Ruf platoon might be productive but both have flopped.

EastFallowfield 2016-05-02 17:14:44 UTC #75

10 of those 19 games are against teams that are a combined one game under .500, so it's not all Braves games the next 3 weeks.

Austinfan 2016-05-02 17:35:11 UTC #76

Not really, the young pitchers have run up some bad pitch counts, like Valesquez yesterday.
It's more about promoting the good (Bailey), dumping bad (Russell), and hiding the Ugly (Oberholtz).

Gomez is not a stopper, Pete is riding the hot hand, though as long as you give him rest he can be pretty effective. However, Hernadez and Bailey have filled that role in the past and may do so again (if not traded in July).
Neris is the wild card, if he keeps improving that sinker, combined with a 94 MPH FB, he's got the job.

Morgan is getting healthy, throwing 89 last year, 91 this year, command is still a little off but it's early.
Eickhoff and Nola both need to develop another secondary pitch, especially a changeup, to be effective at a high level over the long haul.
Valesquez has to develop more command of his secondary pitchers, when they're on, combined with his heater, he's elite.
Hellickson, I'm just hoping he keeps throwing like his last game until we can flip him for a young OF, but you have to limit his innings, when he gets even a little tired, his command goes south and his fastball loses velocity.

phillychuck 2016-05-02 17:36:54 UTC #77

Too small a sample to reach a definitive conclusion. We can say with certainty that they have not played well at this point, but predicting the next month based on April alone isn't reliable. Ruf should be much better vs lefties.

Slinging_Southpaw 2016-05-02 17:39:45 UTC #78

A player that hasn't been given a full shot to succeed.
With the roster as is, there is absolutely no reason, no one is being blocked, for him not to be given a couple months to either prove himself or flop. If he flops, we move on and need someone at 1B next year. If he succeeds we at least have someone to get us through to Hoskins or someone else.
THERE IS SIMPLY NO REASON TO NOT GIVE HIM THIS CHANCE. THERE IS NOTHING TO LOSE AND EVERYTHING TO GAIN.

phillychuck 2016-05-02 17:42:54 UTC #79

My sentiments exactly.

tom81 2016-05-02 18:06:45 UTC #80

Yes but it's a lot easier then the next 19 where we face The Tigers, Cubs and Nats in 13 of those games.