August 2016 Waiver Wire Rumors and Deals

[Austinfan]

One reason they may have held onto Hellickson is that he's pitched much better the last month or so, primarily around his changeup.
"Over his last seven starts, spanning 45 innings, the ERA is 2.20 and his FIP 3.27.
Over the last month, Hellickson’s ramped up the usage of his changeup relative to earlier in the season, a shift that’s been met with great success."
fangraphs.com/blogs/jeremy-h ... teresting/

If they feel McClure has been able to improve his changeup significantly, they may see him as more than a #4 pitcher next year and therefore raised his "reservation price."
That is, even at the QO $16.7M (2.4 WAR at $7M, a more reasonable valuation rate) he's probably worth it for one season as insurance. He's already at 1.9 WAR this season.
So if you think he's got value if you're stuck with him, why give him away?

[phillychuck]

It wouldn't break my heart if they signed him to a 4-year deal...AAV somewhere between $12M-$14M per. Do we think he'll do better than that on the open market? Does Boras?

[zambonir]

"Stand Pat" jokes aside (and hey, it was just a joke), I think the story of Klentak so far has been one of leaving his options open/flexibility.

[andyb]

It wouldn't break my heart if they signed him to a 4-year deal...AAV somewhere between $12M-$14M per. Do we think he'll do better than that on the open market? Does Boras?

Looking at last year's market Ian Kennedy got 5/70. Yovani Gallardo was in the draft pick netherland and only got 2/22 with an option to make it 3/33. Lackey got 2/32. Brett Anderson took the QO, Marco Estrada got 2/26. Happ got 3/36.

Hellickson might be younger than that entire list though and he has been relatively consistent in his career. He seems a little better than a Scott Feldman type that got 3/30 a couple of years ago.

I have no idea if he gets $60 million. Without the draft pick he probably approaches it. But the comp pick might be worth $15 to $20 million to a signing team. So his price will be depressed somewhat unless the market is so bad that he has lots of suitors. There could be some decent clubs in the bottom 10 this year that would only have to give up a 2nd round pick. He could make sense for the Braves or the Angels for instance. The Yankees also if they sank to that level after their trades.

[Blue_Bat_Day]

It wouldn't break my heart if they signed him to a 4-year deal...AAV somewhere between $12M-$14M per. Do we think he'll do better than that on the open market? Does Boras?

Looking at last year's market Ian Kennedy got 5/70. Yovani Gallardo was in the draft pick netherland and only got 2/22 with an option to make it 3/33. Lackey got 2/32. Brett Anderson took the QO, Marco Estrada got 2/26. Happ got 3/36.

Hellickson might be younger than that entire list though and he has been relatively consistent in his career. He seems a little better than a Scott Feldman type that got 3/30 a couple of years ago.

I have no idea if he gets $60 million. Without the draft pick he probably approaches it. But the comp pick might be worth $15 to $20 million to a signing team. So his price will be depressed somewhat unless the market is so bad that he has lots of suitors. There could be some decent clubs in the bottom 10 this year that would only have to give up a 2nd round pick. He could make sense for the Braves or the Angels for instance. The Yankees also if they sank to that level after their trades.

The biggest difference is this year there is no Greinke/Price/Cueto/Samardzija/Zimmerman and i dont think there is a top Japanese pitcher being posted like Maeda. Hellickson is likely to be one of the five best SP maybe top three avail.

[David_Criss]

To me Hellickson is deserving of a 3 year 36-42 mil type. If he takes the QO, he will be over-paid a bit, but not the end of the world. I can see Boras having him take it knowing he can make 16 mil and still be a FA at age 30. Because at age 30, he could still be a 3 year 36-42 mil type FA.

If he takes it or re-signs with the Phillies the rotation is: Hellickson, Nola, Thompson, Valasquez, Eickhoff, Eflin and maybe Morton on the cheap. Appel and Archer will be in AAA passing the Buchannan and Morgan types. And don't forget Oberholtzer imo is better suited for starting.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Maybe something will happen with Chooch this month and maybe something can happen with a Hernandez or even a Gomez (despite his save totals, folks are underwhelmed with him, fairly or not). Otherwise, I don't expect much from Stand Pat Matt

.
Umm... Now we're moving on to name-calling?

I would be curious to know what concrete, as in backed up by facts or at least observation has led to animosity against Klentak. Or maybe it is just a personal style issue, but I haven't seen anything in particular to give me negative vibes are him as GM.

Seems a little smug, we don't like smug here.

[California_Dreamin]

Gee, I don't find him smug at all, never ever have thought that. He seems very patient, almost too too so, but right now I will allow him that privilege since I think he seems thoughtful and convinced that the plan is working.

I still believe he let a golden opportunity pass him by in regards to Rupp and Texas, there was a deal to be made there [witness that on the last hour the Rangers got Lucroy] and I would have liked to have gotten Brinson and Ortiz for Rupp and think it was doable.

Time will tell, Rupp may start for the next 5 years and be a mainstay leader on the field and in the clubhouse for the club. Its possible. But, goodness gracious, if there is one spot where the Phils seem to be dealing from strength its catcher and I still wonder if Rupp will ever have more value than he did this trading deadline when he is still a] relatively young, b] healthy and C] cheap.

Those are not 3 qualities he will have for much longer and if/when Knapp [who is having a much better season than he is given credit for] and Alfaro [who is having a great season] are ready, my suspicion is that teams will try and lowball the Phils if they put Rupp on the market.

I think the Phils easily could have brought up Knapp/Moore for the rest of the season to back up Ruiz and added Brinson to a stable of young outfielders that would have not only served as a potpourri of riches but offered salivating potential trade prospects [heck, you can think about moving Herrera] and Ortiz to a young group of starting pitchers.

I would also have considered making VV and Gallo part of this deal and probably asking for one more young prospect from Texas [maybe Chi Chi.] I think this was doable. Yes, I would have done VV and Rupp for Brinson, Gallo, Ortiz and Chi Chi...thats 4 more guys that immediately become part of your top 20 while subtracting a pitcher with a history of arm issues and a player who plays a position of deep talent. Remember, right now its not about winning, its about acquiring as many assets as possible and hoping 33% of them pan out. I would deal 2 assets for 4 assets any day if I were the Phillies.

I am giving Klentak a pass on this deadline but with the caveat that I think a really ingenious GM could have well made a deal or two with the players the Phils had to offer.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

I was kidding. Going back to the "Smuggy the Clown" days of Rueben Amaro. Many posters here do not like perceived smugness.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Gee, I don't find him smug at all, never ever have thought that. He seems very patient, almost too too so, but right now I will allow him that privilege since I think he seems thoughtful and convinced that the plan is working.

I still believe he let a golden opportunity pass him by in regards to Rupp and Texas, there was a deal to be made there [witness that on the last hour the Rangers got Lucroy] and I would have liked to have gotten Brinson and Ortiz for Rupp and think it was doable.

Time will tell, Rupp may start for the next 5 years and be a mainstay leader on the field and in the clubhouse for the club. Its possible. But, goodness gracious, if there is one spot where the Phils seem to be dealing from strength its catcher and I still wonder if Rupp will ever have more value than he did this trading deadline when he is still a] relatively young, b] healthy and C] cheap.

Those are not 3 qualities he will have for much longer and if/when Knapp [who is having a much better season than he is given credit for] and Alfaro [who is having a great season] are ready, my suspicion is that teams will try and lowball the Phils if they put Rupp on the market.

I think the Phils easily could have brought up Knapp/Moore for the rest of the season to back up Ruiz and added Brinson to a stable of young outfielders that would have not only served as a potpourri of riches but offered salivating potential trade prospects [heck, you can think about moving Herrera] and Ortiz to a young group of starting pitchers.

I would also have considered making VV and Gallo part of this deal and probably asking for one more young prospect from Texas [maybe Chi Chi.] I think this was doable. Yes, I would have done VV and Rupp for Brinson, Gallo, Ortiz and Chi Chi...thats 4 more guys that immediately become part of your top 20 while subtracting a pitcher with a history of arm issues and a player who plays a position of deep talent. Remember, right now its not about winning, its about acquiring as many assets as possible and hoping 33% of them pan out. I would deal 2 assets for 4 assets any day if I were the Phillies.

I am giving Klentak a pass on this deadline but with the caveat that I think a really ingenious GM could have well made a deal or two with the players the Phils had to offer.

I'd like to get those prospects too, but sometimes you can outsmart yourself thinking you've got it all figured out. I heard non-stop about how stacked the Red Sox were at catcher with the top catching prospect in all of baseball Blake Swihart, plus Christian Vasquez who was even better defensively. By the halfway point in the season, both had been sent to AAA, with Swihart looking to learn a new position. Who took their place? Journeyman Sandy Leon. There was also talk of the Red Sox trading for Lucroy at the deadline.
For now, I'm good with holding onto what we've got.

[Philsmania]

Gee, I don't find him smug at all, never ever have thought that. He seems very patient, almost too too so, but right now I will allow him that privilege since I think he seems thoughtful and convinced that the plan is working.

I still believe he let a golden opportunity pass him by in regards to Rupp and Texas, there was a deal to be made there [witness that on the last hour the Rangers got Lucroy] and I would have liked to have gotten Brinson and Ortiz for Rupp and think it was doable.

Time will tell, Rupp may start for the next 5 years and be a mainstay leader on the field and in the clubhouse for the club. Its possible. But, goodness gracious, if there is one spot where the Phils seem to be dealing from strength its catcher and I still wonder if Rupp will ever have more value than he did this trading deadline when he is still a] relatively young, b] healthy and C] cheap.

Those are not 3 qualities he will have for much longer and if/when Knapp [who is having a much better season than he is given credit for] and Alfaro [who is having a great season] are ready, my suspicion is that teams will try and lowball the Phils if they put Rupp on the market.

I think the Phils easily could have brought up Knapp/Moore for the rest of the season to back up Ruiz and added Brinson to a stable of young outfielders that would have not only served as a potpourri of riches but offered salivating potential trade prospects [heck, you can think about moving Herrera] and Ortiz to a young group of starting pitchers.

I would also have considered making VV and Gallo part of this deal and probably asking for one more young prospect from Texas [maybe Chi Chi.] I think this was doable. Yes, I would have done VV and Rupp for Brinson, Gallo, Ortiz and Chi Chi...thats 4 more guys that immediately become part of your top 20 while subtracting a pitcher with a history of arm issues and a player who plays a position of deep talent. Remember, right now its not about winning, its about acquiring as many assets as possible and hoping 33% of them pan out. I would deal 2 assets for 4 assets any day if I were the Phillies.

I am giving Klentak a pass on this deadline but with the caveat that I think a really ingenious GM could have well made a deal or two with the players the Phils had to offer.

I'd like to get those prospects too, but sometimes you can outsmart yourself thinking you've got it all figured out. I heard non-stop about how stacked the Red Sox were at catcher with the top catching prospect in all of baseball Blake Swihart, plus Christian Vasquez who was even better defensively. By the halfway point in the season, both had been sent to AAA, with Swihart looking to learn a new position. Who took their place? Journeyman Sandy Leon. There was also talk of the Red Sox trading for Lucroy at the deadline.
For now, I'm good with holding onto what we've got.

I remember saying to myself that Swihart better turn out to be real good considering how fiercely the Red Sox held on to him.

[Austinfan]

Those are not 3 qualities he will have for much longer and if/when Knapp [who is having a much better season than he is given credit for] and Alfaro [who is having a great season] are ready, my suspicion is that teams will try and lowball the Phils if they put Rupp on the market.

It's very hard to "lowball" teams, if Rupp has a couple solid seasons as a starting C, at age 29 he'll have lots of value even if Alfaro and Knapp are ready to start - because there aren't 30 teams with a plus defensive catcher with plus power putting up close to a .800 OPS - heck there aren't 10 teams.

[06hawkalum]

Gee, I don't find him smug at all, never ever have thought that. He seems very patient, almost too too so, but right now I will allow him that privilege since I think he seems thoughtful and convinced that the plan is working.

I still believe he let a golden opportunity pass him by in regards to Rupp and Texas, there was a deal to be made there [witness that on the last hour the Rangers got Lucroy] and I would have liked to have gotten Brinson and Ortiz for Rupp and think it was doable.

Time will tell, Rupp may start for the next 5 years and be a mainstay leader on the field and in the clubhouse for the club. Its possible. But, goodness gracious, if there is one spot where the Phils seem to be dealing from strength its catcher and I still wonder if Rupp will ever have more value than he did this trading deadline when he is still a] relatively young, b] healthy and C] cheap.

Those are not 3 qualities he will have for much longer and if/when Knapp [who is having a much better season than he is given credit for] and Alfaro [who is having a great season] are ready, my suspicion is that teams will try and lowball the Phils if they put Rupp on the market.

I think the Phils easily could have brought up Knapp/Moore for the rest of the season to back up Ruiz and added Brinson to a stable of young outfielders that would have not only served as a potpourri of riches but offered salivating potential trade prospects [heck, you can think about moving Herrera] and Ortiz to a young group of starting pitchers.

I would also have considered making VV and Gallo part of this deal and probably asking for one more young prospect from Texas [maybe Chi Chi.] I think this was doable. Yes, I would have done VV and Rupp for Brinson, Gallo, Ortiz and Chi Chi...thats 4 more guys that immediately become part of your top 20 while subtracting a pitcher with a history of arm issues and a player who plays a position of deep talent. Remember, right now its not about winning, its about acquiring as many assets as possible and hoping 33% of them pan out. I would deal 2 assets for 4 assets any day if I were the Phillies.

I am giving Klentak a pass on this deadline but with the caveat that I think a really ingenious GM could have well made a deal or two with the players the Phils had to offer.

I think you are overestimating Rupp's value. His career was undistinguished until this year and even now in his "breakout" age 27 season he only has a 1.5 WAR. In comparison Lucroy has a much stronger track record, having averaged a 3.2 WAR since the start of the 2012 season. Had Lucroy accepted the trade to the Indians Klentak may very well have ended up trading Rupp to the Rangers. However, I suspect he would have Gallo or Ortiz, not both. I don't think the Rangers would have parted with a consensus Top 20 prospect like Brinson for Rupp unless VV was thrown in. My guess is that VV + Rupp would have netted Brinson and the Phils pick of Ortiz or Gallo.

[the_fish]

Those are not 3 qualities he will have for much longer and if/when Knapp [who is having a much better season than he is given credit for] and Alfaro [who is having a great season] are ready, my suspicion is that teams will try and lowball the Phils if they put Rupp on the market.

It's very hard to "lowball" teams, if Rupp has a couple solid seasons as a starting C, at age 29 he'll have lots of value even if Alfaro and Knapp are ready to start - because there aren't 30 teams with a plus defensive catcher with plus power putting up close to a .800 OPS - heck there aren't 10 teams.

There aren't even 5 other teams with a starting catcher with on OPS over .800. I'll be really curious to see how Rupp is valued with a full year of stats going into the winter. If he continues to replicate what he's been doing, a trade package should be better than the likes of Brinson and Ortiz.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Look, we don't know for sure that Alfaro or Knapp will turn out better than Rupp.

I am not sure the wise thing to do is to be in a hurry to dismiss Rupp, we very well could end up regretting that.

[bigegypt0417]

Look, we don't know for sure that Alfaro or Knapp will turn out better than Rupp.

I am not sure the wise thing to do is to be in a hurry to dismiss Rupp, we very well could end up regretting that.

Alfaro, Knapp, Grullon and there are more I'm missing.

We have catching at pretty much every level. If you can get a good return for Rupp, you have to think about it.

[California_Dreamin]

Look, thats part of the techniques that make good GM's great ones, knowing when to move a player who is likely to be enjoying his best season. I happen to believe we are witnessing that in Rupp. I mean, come on, he is 27 years old and I doubt we have ever even had a thread on him since he was drafted and while many of us thought he was a decent pick in the 3rd round, the consensus was always that he might become a solid backup catcher.

Now? He is batting cleanup and having a very good year in an industry where catching is at a premium. Hey, if he turns out to make this season his norm, I am all in for the Ruppies Puppies but I have my doubts and I think he was the Phils best trading chip, I simply do. Some of the wisest moves the Phils have made in my lifetime were trades of players who had great years but never repeated them after being dealt...Gene Freese for Johnny Callison, Don Demeter for Jim Bunning, Wally Post for Tony Gonzalez, Juan Samuel for Lenny Dykstra are some that come to mind immediately.

Again, this is an entirely subjective argument...some very solid posters on this site [fish, Squire come to mind] favored keeping Rupp and I understand it. But I can't help feeling that Rupp is going to be one of those one year wonders who settles back into his norm next year and is replaced by Alfaro/Knapp and eventually moved for 50 cents on the dollar.

We will see and until then, I want and am rooting for Ruppies Puppies to have lots to cheer about!

[tom81]

Catchers often mature late as hitters, look no further than Chooch. Chooch caught his first mlb game at 27 and was not a full timer till 28. He did not really hit his stride as a hitter till age 30. I think it folly to assume Rupp won't continue to develop further as a hitter especially if he the players he is surrounded with are better hitters too. I'd keep this core group of young hitters together and if you feel the need to trade from strength at catcher to improve a position of greater need I'd look to move Knapp.

[julio]

I think you are overestimating Rupp's value. His career was undistinguished until this year and even now in his "breakout" age 27 season he only has a 1.5 WAR. In comparison Lucroy has a much stronger track record, having averaged a 3.2 WAR since the start of the 2012 season.

Welcome to the board, 06hawlalum!

Regarding Cameron Rupp's 2016 WAR... he has 1.5 WAR, but that's in 69 games started. WAR is a function of playing time, as well as any rate of production. Extrapolate Rupp's current 2016 WAR to 140 games, and instead of 1.5, it becomes a 3 WAR season.

[phillychuck]

On the other hand, Chooch's development curve was very unusual, and you can't expect another player to have the same type of development. It would be like hitting the daily number on consecutive days--sure, it might happen, but you'd lose a lot of money betting on it.