2025 Trade Deadline Discussion

[zambonir]

I just don't think it failed in the post-season because of the philosophy. And also I don't think any of our bullpen's worst post-season innings were in the ninth. Sometimes you just lose the AB. And what happened last year was just freakish. Two all-star relievers and so-called Proven Closer all couldn't get anybody out.

The year Arizona beat us their deadline-trade Proven Closer got destroyed in the World Series while the Rangers got to the end with the equivalent of Andrew Bellatti on the mound and their closer on the bench. The Dodgers didn't have a WS closer last year. Pretty sure the Yankees also had issues and still do. And we saw guys like Classe, Williams and Diaz all bomb in October too.

[bigegypt0417]

Four consecutive years we're going in to the deadline and what is the need?

Bullpen.

It's really hard to ignore it's been the focal point every season and the answer is always the same...trade more young talent for a regressing reliever or three.

it's one thing to say that it's not been the same glaring issue...the phillies will trade top 100 talent to get an aging closer. They have failed to develop their own, draft one or sign one in the off season.

[BostonRoss]

I wouldn’t call Bohm’s and Stott’s performances as failed development. Rather, they have failed to match their early offensive success. Rojas, too though his success was over a short period.

Other teams have the same issue; look at Michael Harris II and Mark Vientos. It’s hard to maintain excellence.

[julio]

Four consecutive years we're going in to the deadline and what is the need?

Bullpen.

I could argue that if our most pressing need each of the last four years at the trade deadline was relief pitching... that's really a commentary on the rotation and the position players.

Relievers are notoriously unreliable, inconsistent. Yeah, Mariano Rivera was not. For one season, Brad Lidge was not. But by and large...

You bring in the new guy at the end of July (or August, in years past). Different catchers; different pitching coach; different manager; different defense behind him; different organizational practices. Is it any wonder that, at least some of the time, all those changes impact the new guy's performance in the short run (which is all you've got between the trade deadline and the end of the season and/or post-season). Roll the dice.

[andyb]

Our most pressing need the last 4 years has not always been the bullpen. I just think there is a tendency to want overkill and redundancy back there. In 2022 we did get David Robertson, but also got Marsh, Sosa, and Syndegard to fill other needs that might have been as pressing or more. We also worked with an eye towards controllable players in Marsh and Sosa.

Last year we were moving the deck chairs around the bullpen because we lost confidence in Seranthony and Soto. But Hays was probably a co-number one need along with Estevez.

This year in comparison the bullpen is a disaster. We generally want 4-5 arms we trust back there and we only have 2 at the moment in Kerkering and Strahm. And I trust each of them less than I have trusted Alvarado and Dominguez in the past. Probably trust them less than Estevez who did not really work out. It is just a glaring need this season and Alvarado is only a partial solution (though he might strangely be our best reliever once he is back unless we get somebody really good).

[flyers19rw]

We don’t know and the Phillies won’t divulge until later but I don’t believe that Stott is healthy and hasn’t been so for a year and a half. He probably doesn’t want to face surgery but may have to after this season. Last off season’s rehab has not been a success.

[allentown]

Career WAR of 4.7. Only one good season really (2024 at 3.0). This season he is at 0.9 WAR

Nothing terrible about that. A 0.9 WAR doesn't make him the problem among the position players. And he was very good last season. We have negative WAR guys in the lineup, although Marsh is turning his season around, but still negative. At least he was good the prior 2-1/3 seasons.

[andyb]

0.9 (or something like 1.5 or 1.6 for the year) IS terribly disappointing. That was the question. Heck, everyone except for Schwarber and Turner has been disappointing this year offensively.

Sometimes teams need their 27-29 year old players to step up and give them 4+ WAR seasons in their prime while they are inexpensive. We are just not getting that from our younger players (Bohm, Stott, Marsh/Rojas). Frankly I am less disappointed by the rentals (Kepler) and the aging players (Realmuto, Casty) than I am by the players in their prime not stepping up. Bryce gets a bit of an injury pass too.

Trading Bohm in the offseason in hindsight would probably have been a good move. Assuming we could have gotten something decent for him. Frankly I am intrigued enough with Kemp that he might give us a slightly plus offensive player with defensive challenges like Bohm, but for far less cost.

[VoteForKalas]

That is right, andyb. Cheap and productive above expectation is the best fuel for any team in any sport.

For example, it was one main thing that helped the Eagles win the SB last season.

[zambonir]

I suppose it's been a pretty long gap from Neris and Seranthony to Kerkering in terms of developing a few more homegrown relief arms, but even in this day and age where they are more important than ever and their stuff is more impressive than ever, they are still pretty fungible. I can remember guys like Damon Jones and Andrew Baker being the next guys, and in 2021 and 2022 they still had such names as De Los Santos, Jo Jo Romero, Rosso and Brogdon cycling through, and McGarry seemed like he was on the fast-track too.

But when you look back at the veterans that were in our 2021 [Kintzler, Neris, Ian Kennedy at the deadline] and 2022 bullpen [Knebel, Familia] this group doesn't look so bad. Just worse than the last two years.

[allentown]

Bohm and Stott have given us one 3+ and Marsh two (with his po-trade time in Philly being about the same level). A lot of prospects flame out, but the Phillies seem to have too many who reach an acceptable level and flame out. Opposing teams and pitcher suss out their approach to an AB and take advantage. Our young hitters lack the ability or were never taught how to adjust and vary their approach.

[zambonir]

Bohm is slightly disappointing for his draft position, and I'm hardly a fan, but he is really bearing the burden of all the guys who came before him [Kingery, Moniak, Haseley, never mind Randolph who I don't think anyone ever believed in], and now he's bearing the burden of being a decent 6 or even 2-hole hitter on a team that desperately needs a 5, having lost Hoskins at the same time Nick and JT lost their power [and it's kind of laughable our current LF is supposed to try hitting there as well].

Stott is only disappointing because he was really looking like a multiple All-Star there for a bit and now he's just a solid regular who is glove-first [even if that's been a bit bumpy this year]. I suppose it's possible there is an injury but if that is the case someone really messed up not thinking it should be addressed last off-season [assuming it's the same thing].

It never really matters or fixes anything, but the last good Phillies era still saw the hitting coach get fired [though, in classic Phillies fashion, he was replaced by his own predecessor].

[dicemen99]

0.9 (or something like 1.5 or 1.6 for the year) IS terribly disappointing. That was the question. Heck, everyone except for Schwarber and Turner has been disappointing this year offensively.

Sometimes teams need their 27-29 year old players to step up and give them 4+ WAR seasons in their prime while they are inexpensive. We are just not getting that from our younger players (Bohm, Stott, Marsh/Rojas). Frankly I am less disappointed by the rentals (Kepler) and the aging players (Realmuto, Casty) than I am by the players in their prime not stepping up. Bryce gets a bit of an injury pass too.

Trading Bohm in the offseason in hindsight would probably have been a good move. Assuming we could have gotten something decent for him. Frankly I am intrigued enough with Kemp that he might give us a slightly plus offensive player with defensive challenges like Bohm, but for far less cost.

I don't think anyone could have written a better post than this. Ever.

Kerkering is on the clock next. He's either going to turn into a stud reliever that's inexpensive and controllable or join that crowd. I know relievers are erratic but in the next couple of years I'd like to see one season of lights out, look at that young unhittable arm the Phillies have, out of him.

That's the stuff that wins you a series one year.

[zambonir]

That's a lot to ask man! Ken Giles was that for us for a bit and then he wasn't when it counted for his next two teams. Lidge was like that for the Astros and then he wasn't enough to get traded to us. I'd settle for another Hector or Seranthony out of Kerkering.

In the bigger picture, it's certainly fair to wonder if the Phillies should reallocate a bit of their money, which has very plainly and IMO correctly been put towards starters and hitters, towards relief pitching. There was a time when that worked well for this team - Wagner, Lidge [for a while], Papelbon [except maybe not, they needed to spend money on other things during those waning years]. But it seems like all the big FA or traded relievers have their warts except for Hader. Purely going by blown save % Tanner Scott has been as rough as Romano. Would you really want to sign Williams or Suarez [the other one] to a deal like Hader or Edwin Diaz got?

Of course Estevez is the one having a great year, and I'm not sure any of us wanted him back more than we wanted Hoffman back. And they were both terrible players for a long time. That's how you find a great reliever, as much as you develop or trade/overpay for them.

[fish]

Of course Estevez is the one having a great year,

I’m still of in the camp that he would not have done that in a Phillies uniform. I don’t know how to judge suitability of small market relievers for Philly except maybe how they performed in the playoffs.

Dennis Santana sucking in Philly is the easiest bet anyone could make.

[zambonir]

I dunno, I just don't believe in small market vs. large market any more than I really believe a pitcher has special ninth inning power. I don't think Estevez wilted under pressure, he just made a few mistakes [and was still better than the other two relievers who outpitched him in the regular season]. And so did Alvarado in each of the other two years.

I would be more likely to suggest that Estevez could still put up a 8.00 ERA in August, or lose a game in October, because of any of them can. If that wasn't the case, the '08 and '09 Phillies wouldn't have achieved all that they achieved either [against Broxton and Huston Street]. Though obviously the Yankees had the better reliever in the end the second year [tho Lidge's biggest meltdown in the WS, if I recall, involved both a tie game and bad fielding play].