2025 Trade Deadline Discussion

[zambonir]

Actually the Phillies director of pro scouting, Mike Ondo, hasn't changed since Ed Wade [though I believe he didn't get the top job until Gillick].

I don't think these guys are blowing anything though. No team gets every move right. This group has hit more than it has missed with both its trades and free agents, and, indeed, has been nothing but successful based on the standings. And a few bad signings or disappointing trades are still not the reason the Phillies haven't won a World Series. And while we may not like Nick or Trea's contracts that doesn't mean the alternate reality without them would have been better.

And bad things also happen to good relievers when it comes to that, always. Just ask Jonathan Broxton in 2008 or both Broxton and Huston Street a year later. I seriously doubt the scouts had unrealistic expectations about Romano. They also always knew they'd end up needing another arm at the deadline, but that the bullpen would be good enough until then. It has been, even w/o Alvarado. Whatever guy they get this deadline will have been properly scouted and evaluated, and still might fail. For six or seven other teams too.

[biggsphils]

I don't think sitting Nick against RHP go over too wel with Nick (look how he reacted when replaced for defense a few weeks ago) Would be a clubhouse nightmare

[zambonir]

No question it's unlikely. And I'm not even sure it's necessary/smart. He actually has a .746 OPS against RHP this year. Kepler is .704. And I doubt we could expect any better from Crawford. You'd get better defense but I don't think we watch these games where they lose 2-1 or leave 10 men on base and think that's the thing that needs improving.

All of which is to say Nick does not deserve to be benched or even platooned, but if they really bring up Crawford and still keep both Marsh and Kepler the Phillies should at least sit him down and explain he might get a day off every week. What happened the first time was just poor communication and an overly emotional in-the-moment reaction.

I doubt that's how the roster would shake out anyway.

[phillychuck]

Here is the negative but balanced, I think, view of the Phils right now:

Below the “star” level...(hitters)

They have failed to develop Bohm, Stott, Rojas, and Marchan (at least initially) as hitters.

Young hitters they have traded for, Marsh, Sosa, have performed well, or at least above expectations.

There is a long list of non-star established hitters who have disappointed--Kepler, Hays, Merrifield, etc. This seems to be their biggest Achilles heel.

The marquee signings have been good to great -- Turner, Harper, Schwarber, Realmuto. And even Castellanos has been adequate.

They have done much better with starting pitchers/closers (signing them or trading for them, not developing them) -- Wheeler, Sanchez, Alvarado, Luzardo, Hoffman. Relief pitcher success has been spotty, but that’s the nature of that market. They have even developed a few helpful bullpen arms -- Keirkering, Lazar, Johnson, Banks.

All in all, more positive than negative I think. A big test will be the development of Abel and Painter as pitchers and Miller and Crawford as hitters.

[andyb]

Any Crawford scenario really involves Marsh more than anything else. Marsh has some trade value so could be dealt for bullpen help while being replaced by Crawford in the lineup. Gelb among others has written that the Phillies would be selling low on Marsh in that scenario - but the whole thing really makes sense if they like Crawford more.

[zambonir]

I feel like it isn't really selling low on Marsh, he's turned his season around and he is what he is, a very good strong-side platoon hitter and excellent defensive LF who won't embarass you in CF, which is also no small thing. He's not going to become a better hitter or a better fielder going forward, plus his salary will rise.

For me the issue is more it would make this year's team worse, the move is to just dump Kepler and move Marsh back to LF. You can consider trading Marsh in the off-season.

Now, if Marsh is part of a deal for a bat that's a different story. But the bullpen help should be gettable without him or Crawford, even if it's one of the controllable guys.

[VoteForKalas]

We got Banks at the deadline last year from the White Sox

[VoteForKalas]

They have failed to develop Bohm, Stott, Rojas, and Marchan (at least initially) as hitters.

Agree, this has actually been their biggest issue. If even one of these guys develops into a dangerous hitter, the team is much better off. There have been baby steps, but stagnation and/or regression otherwise.

Young hitters they have traded for, Marsh, Sosa, have performed well, or at least above expectations.

Agree, they have performed well, but are not full time players which has put us in platoon mode and led to bad signings to complete the roster.

There is a long list of non-star established hitters who have disappointed--Kepler, Hays, Merrifield, etc. This seems to be their biggest Achilles heel.

I think the failure of development has been our biggest issue (for the last 15 years), but DD has been poor at finding the right pieces in the bargain bin. By nature, that is tough to do, but he has somehow failed even more spectacularly than normal.

The marquee signings have been good to great -- Turner, Harper, Schwarber, Realmuto. And even Castellanos has been adequate.

Walker was a bad mistake, Casty was not worth the money and Turner is on the borderline for me. A very good player, but not great or elite. Harper & Schwarber are carrying this offense. JT has been special until this season where I see decline happening. I hope they do not re-sign him, but may be forced to since they have no one else and no budget to go get another good catcher unless Middleton digs deeper.

They have done much better with starting pitchers/closers (signing them or trading for them, not developing them) -- Wheeler, Sanchez, Alvarado, Luzardo, Hoffman. Relief pitcher success has been spotty, but that’s the nature of that market. They have even developed a few helpful bullpen arms -- Keirkering, Lazar, Johnson, Banks.

Agree, Luzardo, Suarez & Sanchez coupled with Wheeler & Nola is a great rotation. The pen is tougher and the Alvarado suspension, especially for the playoffs, is a killer. Strahm, Banks & Kerkering are really the only reliable pen arms right now which is scary and why we have a lot of IP for starters.

All in all, more positive than negative I think. A big test will be the development of Abel and Painter as pitchers and Miller and Crawford as hitters.

I'm a bit more negative than you, but we still have a very good team that can win a lot of games. Whether they can go on a run in the playoffs is the key. We'll see what happens, but I think it is clear DD has work to do in the offseason to improve the lineup/pen and give us a longer window of contention.

[jimbomill]

That might be on our pro scouts more than DD.

It is the GM's job to say yes, or question the input from scouts. Plus, DD made the decision to let our two (probably) best relievers go in free agency and is now still in need of replacing at least one of them with someone competent. This is DD's orchestra, you can't keep blaming the musicians.

[bkox]

The Dodgers have Michael Conforto at 17M with a sub 600 OPS and neg 1 WAR.. does that make them dumb? They have used 25 pitchers this year and 6 of em have ERAs over 10.00.. Again are they dumb? One player or one transaction doesnt make a GM dumb.

I read this board and think we must have a bottom of the league record instead of the 5th best record in the MLB.

[bigegypt0417]

Reactions are a product of trauma...i mean as a Phillies phan you do have to understand that aspect. It's year after year of a good team with essentially the same warts that cause them to potentially trade the future to MAYBE get deeper in the playoffs.

[zambonir]

They have done much better with starting pitchers/closers (signing them or trading for them, not developing them) -- Wheeler, Sanchez, Alvarado, Luzardo, Hoffman. Relief pitcher success has been spotty, but that’s the nature of that market. They have even developed a few helpful bullpen arms -- Keirkering, Lazar, Johnson, Banks.

We got Banks at the deadline last year from the White Sox

Yeah we didn't develop Lazar [Brewers guy they released, we signed as minor league FA] or Johnson [Soto trade] either, especially since they haven't done anything yet. And Hoffman actually belongs in that group - minor league FA - not the first one.

Sanchez and Alvarado credit goes to Klentak and his guys too, though clearly Cotham finished them off.

[julio]

Reactions are a product of trauma...i mean as a Phillies phan you do have to understand that aspect. It's year after year of a good team with essentially the same warts that cause them to potentially trade the future to MAYBE get deeper in the playoffs.

The post-season is a crapshoot. The more teams that are included, the more rounds that are added to get TV revenue, the lower the probability that any one team will win out. This is fairly simple math. Being traumatized by losing a post-season series is an emotional reaction that ignores probability and logic. However, it's not an atypical fan reaction; lots of fans (lots of people generally) are basically math-illiterate, and tend to react emotionally to setbacks that are, to be blunt, what should be expected most of the time.

However, anybody in a position of responsibility in a major-league front office who sees failure to beat the odds in the post-season as traumatic (as opposed to just what is going to happen most of the time), does not belong in a major-league front office. These people are not paid big bucks to respond in an illogical, emotional way to outcomes that are normal and expected. That's not to say they shouldn't want to beat the odds, or shouldn't try to beat the odds (within reason - irrational frittering away of assets in pursuit of a couple of percentage point increase in what are realistically bad odds, is not reasonable). But they shouldn't react emotionally, and get all stupid, when they don't beat the odds. They should recognize that "not beating the odds" is not "failure" in any rational sense.

[flyers19rw]

I do not get the negativity on Bohm. His career averages are.278/.427/.414/.741 with 16 HRs and 89 RBIs. Even this season with a poor start he is approaching his career averages. In the field his glove has vastly improved and is more than merely adequate. It seems to me that his greater failure is to not be Mike Schmidt. In today’s game his numbers would be difficult to replace. He has some issues to be sure; mostly his temperament. Cut the guy some slack. He never was tagged to be a slugger and playing in the field next to isn’t a treat.

[bigegypt0417]

Year after year the phillies come in to the season with the same question with the closer and the beack end of the bullpen.

It's been every year of picking up some stop gap and hoping for the best.

The playoffs are a crapshoot...the blatant failure to fix the same issue year and after is bad roster management.

[andyb]

I do not get the negativity on Bohm.

Career WAR of 4.7. Only one good season really (2024 at 3.0). This season he is at 0.9 WAR. The defense is not that good even if he "looks" better in the field than he did when he was younger. He makes fewer errors now, but the range is mediocre like it always has been. He also does not have enough power at the plate while also hitting into lots of DPs. His total game really looks better than it is.

[zambonir]

By nature, that is tough to do, but he has somehow failed even more spectacularly than normal.

I don't think you can ever fail spectacularly when it's modestly-priced players who are the eighth or tenth best guys on the roster. I wish he'd been more aggressive at the '23 trade deadline or gotten a better player than Hays last year but then several more prospects wouldn't be here now either.

Right now Kepler looks like money wasted when they could have just as easily gone with a Marsh/Rojas/Casty OF and used that money on another reliever. Given the bigger picture of how poor MLB OFs are and how much offense is down that might have been the smart move, just do harder on defense except for Casty, but we wouldn't have enjoyed it at the plate.

The trade we never talk about that really wasn't good was Vierling et. al for Soto, We thought they didn't need Vierling anymore with Marsh in hand and Rojas on the way and Casty stuck in RF but turns out this team and last year's team definitely could have used him. He's had trouble staying healthy and stinks this year but 3.0 WAR last year, and played way more OF than 3B.

[julio]

It seems to me that [Bohm's] greater failure is to not be Mike Schmidt. In today’s game his numbers would be difficult to replace. He has some issues to be sure; mostly his temperament. Cut the guy some slack. He never was tagged to be a slugger and playing in the field next to isn’t a treat.

This has been the bane of Phillies third basemen since...oh, about Memorial Day in 1989! It hasn't mattered what a player's skills were; if the third baseman isn't a brilliant fielder and hitting 30 home runs, he's somehow deficient.

Thank goodness for Garry Maddox; if not for the Maddox/Montanez trade, people would still be comparing our centerfielders to Whitey Ashburn, and finding them all lacking!

[zambonir]

I disagree, I think the Phillies' closer-by-committee thing has been a resounding success, and enables them to easily pivot if one member of the committee fails. It's also far better than handing out three-year expensive deals to guys who inherently stink one year out of three or even half of all three.

It's just a lot harder when two of them fail. But still pretty easy to fix at the deadline and in October. If the Phillies had had someone other Kimbrel in '23 he might have failed in the playoffs too, and Estevez actually did fail

[bigegypt0417]

I don't think you can call it a success when it's consistently failed in the post season...

Closer by committee may work if those on the committee aren't all pitchers on the wrong end of their careers.

I understand the flexibility that it affords but it's hard to praise the outcome.