It's not too rich if you've successfully produced a homegrown #1. It's just the way the system works. And if they haven't produced a homegrown #1 they need what Nola can provide as a so-called #2 or #3 more than ever.
And AAV is what matters. The fact that some of the money will be wasted is a given. But your "ouch" $200/7 deal is actually a more team-friendly contract than your $180/6.
Worst-case you get Lee or Halladay 2.0. Best-case you get Charlie Morton or Verlander.
There's just nobody of Nola's caliber in that same free agent class is the problem. That said your pessimism seems like a pretty good reason to wait until December. May as well see how this season plays out, from the actual quality of the team to what the hitters (both young and old) do to what happens with Painter to the trade deadline. That will make the picture for 2024, including how to spend the money and what the holes are and what assets are tradeable, more clear.
If they are actually well into the wild card or NL East mix, they could end up trading for Nola's replacement at the deadline.