I generally agree with what you say... but here's the operational problem for a team, which seeks to be a post-season threat: unless you have a steady flow of top pitching talent, like Nola, and hopefully Painter and Abel, you are forced to either re-sign your own getting up in age pitching stars, or sign someone else's, as we did with Wheeler. You are on more solid ground making a big $ decision on your own, getting older star pitchers than you are making the big $ decision on a guy from another team. Nola has a lot of the plus qualities we saw in Wheeler (especially in IP per season and control). That's the same thing we previously saw in Halladay and Lee. I'm not talking only about evaluating a guys physical condition and progress along the aging curve, but also how he will fit on the team. Unless the Phillies know about serious warts wrt Nola, which the general public and opposing teams don't, he seems an excellent choice for an extension, depending of course on $/years.
With Hoskins gone for the season, and Harper out for half a season (and unable to play RF this year, but possibly in 2024), I think the Phillies have a better chance to get back to WS in 2024 than this year. So, I absolutely want Nola back next year. The Phillies are definitely going to try to pay for a guy of Nola's ability next season, not wanting to put too much pressure on Abel and Painter.
The graphs in your last article show that today's 32 is prior generation's age 29 for pitchers. That Nola has a 93 mph FB is also saying he hasn't been succeeding based upon FB velocity. He's a pitcher, not a thrower. He still has more to learn as a pitcher. For a guy who throws as many IP as he does, he throws entirely too many waste pitches to set up hitters. As he ages, that's a luxury he won't be able to afford.