I find Nola hard to read. He's a lifelong Phillie, he does seem to like it here, not everybody can be like Utley or Hamels or Harper and go all-in on the city and the culture, but I still can't help but think - and certainly his vaccination status colors my perception - he might want to play in the South/closer to home (or perhaps even Southern California, especially if his brother sticks around out there).
And given Scherzer got a $40 million+ AAV from the Mets (albeit more limited years) I just think the guy wants to hit the open market, and he will get five (certainly not four if you're including next year). He already gave the Phillies a pretty good deal the first time, no reason to do it again.
And yes Thor still seems like he has to take another pillow deal, he wound up getting overpaid this year.