I would think the actual details (and financial distribution) of expanded post-season is the real x factor. Because unless the owners are willing to try and declare emergency powers again, the players don't have to do anything, and it's understandable if they'd say, "just pay us for the 8 games you don't want us to play. Or let's play them."
I mean, it's such a small # that if they do delay the season a month they could just have doubleheaders to stay at 162.
One assumes what the owners want out of the next CBA is a 154-game season with expanded playoffs, and that's an issue here as well, the players don't want to give them a free test run/concession to that before they have to.
But it comes back to the emergency thing. If it doesn't happen the players hold all the cards. If it does the owners can start cutting games again but we're looking at grievances and labor fights (most of which are coming anyway).