2018-19 Phillies Off-Season News/Notes/Discussion

[andyb]

It is what Santana did this year, hitting .229 with a high OBP that essentially replaced an OF that would have hit .270 with a lower OBP. That is not all of the difference, but it is certainly part of it. What is hard to measure is whether their hitting instruction hurt players like Herrera and Altherr and Williams by emphasizing a more patient approach that might have hurt their batting average and power.

I do think the lineup needs a mix of higher average hitters to balance the patient types. We lack a number 3 hitter where average is a more important benchmark than OBP since theoretically you are trying to knock in the higher OBP 1 and 2 hitters.

Now they probably thought Herrera was that number 3 hitter going into the year. Whether Herrera regressed because the league figured him out, he tried to hit too many HRs, or the team messed up his approach is an open question.

[Austinfan]

Given how hot Herrera started the year, I doubt they messed with his approach.
He has a history of going into deep funks, his mechanics are so extreme that when his timing is off he's lost.
I think they will mess with his approach next year, he has to move to a more controlled swing, because I think pitchers figured out how to mess with his timing.

[andyb]

Whether they messed with Herrera's approach is unknowable, but it is pretty common knowledge they have been trying to modify his approach to draw more walks for years. And the whole loft angle thing makes it logical they tried to do that with many of their players here. Not sure we can attribute this to a lazy stereotype that Herrera is flaky.

The fact is that he was a good major league hitter for several years in the prime of his career that regressed. No idea whose fault that is, but when you have a team approach emphasizing the stuff that Herrera did not do before the new regime got here it is a pretty logical question to ask.

[Philsmania]

Not sure we can attribute this to a lazy stereotype that Herrera is flaky.

Herrera is exhibit a for how Philadelphia is a liberal city with racist sports fans. Wading through Facebook comments even before the season, I saw many "They got to get rid of Herrera" and "Herrera is my least favorite Phillie" and is usually mentioned along with Franco in that sentiment and, sometimes, Hernandez. Some will look back to Abreu and say that Latino players seem to have as long an acceptance curve that African-American players once did (Dick Allen scorned in the '60's, Maddox, McBride and LSmith ultimately embraced in the '70's and early '80's).

Philadelphia fans also have little patience for colorful, flaky characters. See how Turk Wendell was a fan favorite in New York but how his flakiness only seemed to throw fuel on the fire when he immediately went south after he was acquired. Something tells me that if Herrera played for the Mets he would be a beloved fan favorite with all of Citi Field doing the goat horn thing every time he got on base.

[allentown]

Not to stereotype unduly, but I think some of Phillies worst behaved fans are from South Jersey.

[andyb]

I try not to get into whether Phillies fans are more or less racist than anywhere else, though it is worth pointing out that sometimes our perceptions get shaped by the environment and the media. I have no doubt that Hoskins is a great guy in the clubhouse for instance. But I also have no idea if any of the other players are as good or better since the media has kind of anointed Hoskins as "the guy".

Herrera does have a pretty unorthodox approach at the plate. That approach is also counter to what the Phillies have been preaching in terms of discipline. I just think it is a valid question as to whether the Phillies messed him up by trying to have him conform to the team's approach when he hits .281 or higher for 3 years and then drops to .255. His BABIP did go way down so the answer could be luck. But it sure looked to me like he was trying to pull the ball much more, perhaps to hit more home runs.

[allentown]

It may even be partly what the Phillies are teaching, but none of their hitters has a more unorthodox approach than Scott Kingery. He is close to the all-time king of 0-2 counts and easily the 2018 leader in that department. That's patience with a vengeance. You have to be an incredibly good hitter to make a living starting from 0-2 counts.

[andyb]

I saw that on Kingery. Was not sure whether the 0-2 counts were from being too patient, or from swinging and missing at pitches out of the zone early in the count.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=100&type=5&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=26&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=2,d

Here are the Fangraphs plate discipline numbers. Kingery is 3rd from worst in O-Swing % (swinging outside the zone). Alfaro of course leads the team. Kingery is on the other end of Z-Swing %. Makes me think he swings and misses outside the zone a lot early. Then gets fooled on offspeed stuff in the zone later.

I don't think we know enough about Kingery to suggest if the team helped or hurt him. His AAA season last year really dictated a half season of AAA this year though and that to me is the biggest mistake we made with Kingery. Other than the odd prominent places in the batting order he was given for the first half of the season that he probably did not deserve. When Crawford got hurt he was the obvious choice to play SS so I have no problem with that even though I think they made a mistake playing Crawford at 3B during the minute they were both healthy mid-season.

[Austinfan]

He has never been a good ML hitter, Herrera has had the same MO each year, a really long cold streak, a really long hot streak, but when these streaks happen change year to year.
It comes down to timing, when he's on, he's unpitchable, when he's off, he's below replacement level.

I think it comes down to an exaggerated timing mechanism with that leg kick and wide open stance, as long as it was working I think they tried to leave it alone except for encouraging him to be more patient (and when he was, he put up great numbers). However, after last season I think they're going to want to rework his swing or get rid of him, I think ML pitchers have him figured out and he can't adjust.

He has good gap power, great eye to hand coordination, if he can rework his swing into something more compact that let's him wait longer on pitches, and thus learns to be less aggressive and focus on pitches in the K-zone, he could win a batting championship. If he can't, he's going to spend his career as a tease who never puts it together for more than short stretches.

[andyb]

He has never been a good ML hitter,

Really? 762, 781, and 778 OPS for his first 3 seasons for 8.5 total oWAR.

None of us really know if the Phillies tried to change anything. But ignoring the simple fact that he was a good ML hitter for 3 years is not the strongest of arguments. Not every hitter conforms to your notion of a high OBP, high patience hitter. There are multiple paths to success.

[Austinfan]

No, Herrera is either a great hitter or a bad hitter, first year, ok, adjustment and counter-adjustment.
By now, it's obvious it comes down to his exaggerated timing mechanism, he has to commit early and pitchers are taking advantage of that. If you throw his timing off, he can't hit.

[andyb]

Or if you tell him to take more pitches and try to hit with higher loft to hit more HRs you might mess him up. The point is we don't know. And the statement was that he was a good ML hitter. There is a lot between what you simplistically call great and bad. He was a good hitter for 3 years however he got it done. He was less good in 2018. Those are facts.

[zambonir]

The other thing that jumped out to me in the Gelb article:

The club wanted him to hit the ball in the air more in 2018. Instead, Franco’s ground-ball rate rose to a career-high 49.8 percent and his average exit velocity dipped to 149th in MLB. Someone will bet on the raw talent.

Forty thoughts for a confusing Phillies 40-man roster that...

[LoneStarPhan]

Coaching change for players who must have had success in the past or they wouldn't be on a major league roster is a difficult thing. While you can teach a new approach you really cannot predict how it will change a player. The key seems to me to be able to have a player try things but not get totally messed up if the new approach doesn't take with them. I know there are successes but it seems like the failures stand out more.

[Philsmania]

Coaching change for players who must have had success in the past or they wouldn't be on a major league roster is a difficult thing. While you can teach a new approach you really cannot predict how it will change a player. The key seems to me to be able to have a player try things but not get totally messed up if the new approach doesn't take with them. I know there are successes but it seems like the failures stand out more.

There was some conversation in that regard last offseason after Matt Stairs left (he was a coaching free agent who went to San Diego before the Phillies hired Kapler and might have had the chance to recruit him on to his staff). Stairs might helped some guys (Hernandez, Williams, Altherr, Knapp) but not others (Franco, whom many had high hopes Stairs might find a way to fix). With regard to the former, all of them regressed this season under the hew hitting coaches except for Williams.

[bigegypt0417]

Or if you tell him to take more pitches and try to hit with higher loft to hit more HRs you might mess him up. The point is we don't know. And the statement was that he was a good ML hitter. There is a lot between what you simplistically call great and bad. He was a good hitter for 3 years however he got it done. He was less good in 2018. Those are facts.

it's an ever changing list of standards for AF....in this case when all else fails you make the argument so narrow as to be he's either great or bad...so basically no middle ground.

LOL

[andyb]

all of them regressed this season under the hew hitting coaches except for Williams.

Williams improved his walk rate and plate discipline this year, but let's also remember he was not as good a hitter. He went from an 811 OPS to 749 this year. Isolated power dropped along with his batting average.

Patience in general is a good thing. Previously though it was working a count and swinging at strikes. Even with Williams it is very possible that the new approach robbed him of some aggressiveness. There is a pro-analytics bias that suggests that patience is now the most important thing. It contributes to the urban myth that Williams was the one guy who did not regress. When the reality is that he did regress. It might have been luck (lower BABIP), but it also might have been a lack of aggressiveness that caused the lower BABIP.

[allentown]

Consistency of approach matters. I remember the Phillies gushing over their first round hitters, things like: plus hitting skills, great level contact swing, bat head stays in the hitting zone a long time. Now we've decided that's not what we want in a hitter. We are jumping 110% on the TTT approach and our hitters are expected to incorporate loft into their swing, so bye bye great contact swing and try to be the hitter we didn't draft you to be. Now we change minor league hitting instructors and coordinator, so I guess other things will change. This organizational churn in staff and what sort of hitter they want is likely to mess up young kids. At best you deliberately drafted a perfect square peg and now you want to force it into that round hole, when you could have drafted a round peg two or three years ago, instead of that square one you drooled over at the time.

[andyb]

I have always thought that hitting was very individual. There should be no single organization-mandated approach. Obviously you want your hitters to swing at better pitches and all that, but the most important attribute for a hitting instructor is not really their approach. It is how they connect with the individual hitter.

There are lots of ways to be good hitters. Look at Alfaro. Robbing him of his aggressiveness might hurt as much as help him because he does have pretty good bat to ball skills (i.e. he can square up lots of different pitches). There are ways to help Alfaro improve his pitch recognition without robbing him of aggressiveness. I would try to shorten up his swing a bit to give him more confidence and lessen the need to sell out on guess hitting. What I would not do is try to turn him into Rhys Hoskins.

[Austinfan]

Patience shouldn't rob good hitters of aggressiveness, it's a matter of learning how to work an AB to get a pitch you can handle - and then ATTACK that pitch. The object is to make good contact, higher velocity and thus higher BABIP. It's no different than a thrower learning how to pitch, hitters in the Show have to learn how to work a count or they'll struggle down the road - Juan Samuel is a perfect example - never improved b/c the league learned to throw him a diet of pitches off the plate.

I think the hitting angle approach is going to be modified as pitchers learn to adjust (fewer low FBs, more high FBs and low breaking pitches outside), this is game theory in action. But a consistent approach to working a count is essential for long-run success, hitters who can't learn that should be traded before the league catches up to them. Hoskins learned this early, some are probably incapable of learning this at all. Part of self-evaluation is identifying who in your farm system is a good fit to what you want to do.

So you want a consistent approach in both drafting/LA and coaching, draft players who can be coached to hit the way you want them to hit. Walks are not a goal, they are a byproduct of a patient approach, The goal is to optimize each PA, lay off bad pitches, get into favorable counts, make hard contact when you swing.