Stepping back a bit it does make sense for the Phillies to invest in the free agent market this year. The case last year was a little less clear as the free agent class was less accomplished. Plus, there were probably more opportunities to trade high level prospects such as Crawford if the team wanted to better align their roster to fill holes.
In 2019 these elements exist:
A. The team still has $100 million they could spend. They don't need or really want to spend all of it, but increasing payroll to something in the $130-$150 million range could be done comfortably while providing flexibility for the future.
B. The team's young core did not advance as much as anticipated. Aside from Nola and Hoskins, there are no obvious keepers. Good players will likely emerge from Alfaro, Williams, Kingery, Crawford, Pivetta, Eflin, and others. But are there any irreplaceable good players that will emerge? In brief, it does not look like this young core is good enough to win with.
C. Trades might be tougher since our young core is not seen as highly and our farm system has depth but little close to the majors. While we can bundle 4 depth prospects in trades pretty easily (maybe paired with a Franco, Hernandez, or young starter), will they actually get us that above average starter we need? Trades from depth should be considered, but they might not be enough. Ideal trades would have us picking up a big salary for a couple of years. The Yelich type deals may be harder though because of the lack of top prospects.
D. Lack of success in recent number one picks means we do not have much immediate help (and Sixto is entering Roman Quinn territory in the odds he can be counted on). Haseley might help at the end of next year, but that is not exactly game changing.
If we do not increase our payroll we will be leaving wins on the table. I am not a huge fan of Ramos at catcher because I think he might not be much better than Alfaro when offense and defense are considered. 3B/SS makes much more sense since all of Franco and Kingery and Crawford are unsettled. Personally I would rather have seen them give Crawford a half season to prove himself but I am resigned now to thinking the organization has already decided against that rightly or wrongly.
So some high ticket free agents do make sense here. Machado, Harper, Corbin, and Kikuchi are my top 4 names to look for. Maybe a closer after that. We'll have to take the risk of longer deals but we can front load them when there are fewer salary pressures. The experiment of Santana at 3B does make me think the team has a better shot at Harper than Machado, though obviously it was a "hedging" your bets move.
I also would not be shocked with more aggressive trades. I don't think they will return star players, but clearly we have a roster of mismatched pieces and if, after the big free agents are decided, we then try to tweak the roster in a better defensive direction it would not surprise me.
