2017 Trade Deadline Rumors/Speculation/Discussion

[andyb]

Logan Moore backing up Knapp for a month would be just fine. He is actually what teams generally look for in a backup catcher. Plus defense and weak offense (but the occasional HR).

[Austinfan]

Buti it's not for a month, Alfaro is clearly not ready to start in the majors, he may not even be a capable backup (i.e. his defense and pitch calling may be substandard as well as his offense).
So you're basically deciding to go with Knapp as the starter for the next year or two.

[bkox]

SO you would rather lose him? Hes not going to be a better catcher by putting him at 1B or RF. Some non contending team will claim him if we dont keep him on the ML roster next year. GUESS WHAT!?! We wont be a contending team either. So we can let him keep developing here with no real downside

[flyers19rw]

But Alfaro is clearly #3 until he improves both defensively and at the plate - in the show, performance, not tools, matters.

Its the chic thing to do these days in ripping Alfaro for his defensive deficiencies. While he does have some, its not like he's Smokey Burgess behind the plate. When he was obtained, he had been named the Ranger's top catching prospect. Last season, Wathan was highly complimentary about the improvement in Alfaro's work behind the plate. He has an absolute gun for an arm with a high kill rate for base stealers. This season he got off to a hot start with the bat and then fell off. That's pretty typical of catchers since they get dinged up so much at their defensive position.
It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Rupp were to be moved soon; all of a sudden catchers are in demand in the trade market-Cubs?. The Phillies will probably keep Alfaro in LV through the end of his season but if a trade were made, he could be called up.. However, he is out of options so he will be with the big club next year. Having Alfaro and Knapp behind the plate could work out well if the manager and PC take a lot of the burden of game calling off of their shoulders by doing that themselves.

[nycphils]

I don't think the idea of starting the year in '18 with three catchers is unreasonable, especially because Knapp can play 1B and would be able to play on days that you want to give Hoskins off against tough RHP.

[Austinfan]

Alfaro is highly overrated, both Rupp and Knapp outhit him in AAA ball at the same age.
He's got a strong arm, but is erratic otherwise defensively, he hasn't stood out this year in Lehigh.
Grullon is 21 and now at Reading, he has the same defensive tools.

If they need to carry three catchers they can do so b/c Knapp can backup at other positions (i.e. you can pinch hit with a catcher), so you don't need a 1B/OF type on the bench. This could buy them time to evaluate Knapp as a potential starter, Alfaro as a potential anything, and Grullon's development.

But it makes no sense to weaken the ML team in 2018 for a marginal return.
For one thing, Rupp with three ML years of experience makes more sense with a young starting staff than Alfaro as a rookie.
If you're really hellbent on trading Rupp, I'd move Alfaro as well and bring in a veteran catcher, shouldn't be too hard to find one who can give you .660 OPS and good defense and experience handling pitchers.

[bkox]

We keep saying Knapp can play first. But do we honestly know if hes a good first baseman? Hes appeared there a total of 8 times in his pro career. 47 innings in the minors and 2 in the majors. Im not against the idea but we shouldnt assume hes ready to play there on a regular basis.

[allentown]

We keep saying Knapp can play first

And that is the lowest hurdle. He doesn't have a bat which is remotely adequate for 1B. Nor do we need a 1B, since we presently have Joseph and Hoskins and will need to find a corner OF berth or 1B for Cozens and Pullin by about this time next season, if we don't trade them.

[zambonir]

If you're really hellbent on trading Rupp, I'd move Alfaro as well and bring in a veteran catcher, shouldn't be too hard to find one who can give you .660 OPS and good defense and experience handling pitchers.

Why not just trade Rupp and still carry three catchers then?

[andyb]

I kind of trust scouts rating him more than I trust lay observations. Alfaro has not had the best year at the plate but it has also not been awful. You tend to cherry pick small sample sizes to make your points. Alfaro has a long track record of decent performances and we absolutely know the raw power is there. Guys with his tools often play better in the majors anyway.

50-50 Alfaro will be better than Rupp next year. And the upside is worth giving him a chance to show he can do it with Knapp being there to share the job anyway.

I love how you think Rupp is the best thing ever and worth trading Alfaro over - and then you say we could get only marginal return for him. Something does not compute in your analysis.

[allentown]

For one thing, Rupp with three ML years of experience makes more sense with a young starting staff

Isn't Rupp the guy McClure pilloried in the media for ruining the effectiveness of his pitchers, because he couldn't call a game or frame a pitch or, I guess, command the respect of the young pitchers, who got in trouble shaking off calls and serving up volleyballs. I will say that I don't agree with McClure's complaint and think he should just tell his pitchers not to shake off calls -- I think other team's know pitcher's tendencies and comfort zones well enough to have a very good idea what is coming when pitcher shakes off a call.

[Austinfan]

50/50 that Alfaro will approach a .750 OPS, which Rupp has done in the majors over the last two seasons?
I'd say that's quite a stretch.

By any measure, Alfaro has had an awful season in AAA at 24: BB% 4.8%, K 31.1%, ISO .120 - and his BABIP is .342 so it isn't bad luck.
What makes it worse, he had a relatively hot April, then the league figured him out and he's been downright terrible the rest of the season.
Since April 236 26 51 11 0 4 30 14 85 .216/.260/.314/.574

Three months is a pretty sizable sample.

I think Rupp is a capable ML catcher. Could they upgrade? Sure. Knapp might be that upgrade if he rediscovers his power stroke.
But is Alfaro that upgrade? Not for a few years.

[zambonir]

It appears there's a better market for A.J. Ellis than Rupp

Deadline Chatter: Marlins, Rockies, Dodgers, Jays, Rangers, Angels

(That post also says J.A. Happ could be available. He makes $13 million next year. Also mentioned, Mike Napoli, a more attractive option for playoff teams than Tommy Joseph.)

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Two players with playoff experience, that wouldn't cost anything in return. That makes sense. Both Joseph and Rupp are long term options where a significant return would be expected.

[BtownFan]

Sidebar - what actual evidence is there that Stairs has achieved "substantial improvement in player performance"? Not sure there is much.

I am seeing much more patience at the plate across the board. The Phils are forcing opponents to throw way more pitches. It could be since the All Star break that this is finally transforming into better over all plate appearances too.

[nycphils]

Every report I've read for weeks states that there is no market for Joseph. It isn't happening until the offseason, if at all.

[Austinfan]

To have a market, Joseph has to show steady improvement over the rest of the season, if he finishes over .800 OPS there will be a market, because that kind of improvement suggests there is untapped potential - the raw power is there, the question is whether he can learn to work ABs and get pitches he can handle or if he'll continue to chase bad pitches. He's never going to be good defensively, but if he shows .850 OPS potential he has value, especially to American league teams. I think right now teams aren't sure what he is, due to his up and down season:
April: .476 OPS
May: .973 OPS
June: .731 OPS
July: .810 OPS
Last season .813 OPS

The reason no one wants him as a rental is that uncertainty, is he a young, inexperienced hitter with great power potential who might put it together in a year or two, given his inexperience, or is he a fundamentally flawed hitter who has already flatlined?

[Soloman_grundy]

I'd like to see some creative prospect for prospect deals. What type of package could Alfaro bring? Quinn? Eflin? Maybe even explore Cozens? Spare parts that have value for other teams prospect parts. I'd keep loading up on high ceiling arms. I think we will buy bats in the near future, but arms are harder to grab, develop, and keep.

[Squire]

I would really like to see the A's hold onto Gray. I'm tired of the Yankees thinking they can do whatever they want. Gray is under control for like 2 more years. A's don't need to blink

[allentown]

I think we will buy bats in the near future, but arms are harder to grab, develop, and keep.

I keep hearing that, but in the past golden age, the Phillies mainly grew their own bats or plucked them from Rule 5/scrap heap. We traded for or signed as FA: Lee, Halladay, Moyer, Oswalt, Blanton, Lidge, Papelbon,